Guwahati: The Assam bypolls have dealt a severe blow to the Congress, which failed to secure a single seat, even losing ground in its traditional bastion of Samaguri in Nagaon district, a Muslim-dominated constituency. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state swept the bypolls, securing victories in all five seats.
BJP’s Diplu Ranjan Sarmah defeated Congress candidate and Dhubri MP Rakibul Hussain’s son Tanzil Hussain by over 24,000 votes, ensuring that the seat does not go to the third generation of the Hussain family. Rakibul Hussain had been an MLA from Samaguri for five consecutive terms while his father Nurul Hussain represented it twice.
Making a special mention of Samaguri—which saw unprecedented poll-related violence leading to a man’s death—Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said in a social media post that a “constituency with a 65 percent minority population, held by Congress for 25 years”, has now been won by the BJP. He termed it a testament of people’s support to “good governance and development”.
We bow in gratitude to the people of Assam 🙏🏽
The NDA’s 5/5 victory in the current by-elections is a resounding testament to Assam’s unwavering support for Adarniya @narendramodi Ji’s vision of good governance and development.
A special mention for Samaguri, a constituency with… pic.twitter.com/a7cqaVwvQT
— Himanta Biswa Sarma (@himantabiswa) November 23, 2024
Earlier in the day, the BJP took early leads in two constituencies—Dholai and Behali. BJP candidate Diganta Ghatowal won the Behali assembly seat, defeating Congress candidate Jayanta Bora by a margin of 9,051 votes while Nihar Ranjan Das emerged victorious in Dholai, defeating Congress rival Dhrubajyoti Purkayastha, by nearly 9,098 votes.
BJP’s regional ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) won the Bongaigaon seat with Diptimoyee Choudhury, wife of former eight-time Bongaigaon MLA Phani Bhushan Choudhury defeating Congressman Brajenjit Singha by almost 37,016 votes. The Sidli seat was bagged by another ally of the BJP, the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), whose candidate Nirmal Kumar Brahma defeated Suddho Basumatary of the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF).
The outcome has raised questions on the Congress’s position in the Assam political landscape, even as party leaders maintained they were confident of putting up a good show in the 2026 assembly elections. The NDA’s victory has spelled misery for the Congress which was hoping to retain the Samaguri seat and unseat the BJP from Behali.
Political analysts blamed the Congress’s performance on strategic missteps, its failure to prioritise alliances and maintain an inclusive approach, and the “arrogance” of senior Congress leaders.
Ahead of the bypolls, the Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASOM), the 16-party opposition alliance in the state, disintegrated after Congress decided to field its own candidate in Behali, breaking an agreement to allot the seat to CPI(ML).
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‘Congress should sacrifice arrogance’
The Behali constituency saw a four-cornered contest, with Lakhikanta Kurmi of the CPI(ML) and Ananta Gogoi of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) both failing to save their deposits. The seat was previously held by Ranjit Dutta, who was elected to the Lok Sabha from the Sonitour parliamentary constituency. However, even as the Congress failed to win any seat, it managed to reduce the BJP’s victory margin in Behali, faintly signalling that the Opposition is still capable of mounting some resistance.
Addressing media persons in Guwahati, Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi said if they had more time for campaigning, the results could have been better.
“We performed well in Dholai and Behali, and tried holding fort in Samaguri. We had no representatives at Dholai and Behali earlier, but we put up a good fight. I view the Behali outcome as a draw between the Congress and BJP. Every election, we would face defeat in Behali by around 24-25,000 votes, but this time we have brought it down to about 9,000 votes,” added Gogoi.
Asked if there was any arrogance on the part of senior Congress leaders as alleged by other parties, Mayur Bora, author and social commentator said that besides strategic missteps, it (arrogance of senior party members) too must have proved annoying for other leaders after a certain point.
“He (Gaurav Gogoi) is the only one who is not under any cloud for covert connection with the ruling party. But he has an arrogant streak, which may be difficult to take others along,” said Bora.
Raijor Dal leader and Sivsagar legislator Akhil Gogoi told reporters that it was the arrogance of some party leaders that cost the Congress dearly, adding that chances look bleak for opposition parties to unite for 2026 unless Congress provides an explanation for its dismissive attitude towards regional alliances.
“Congress should forget its arrogance. After performing well in Lok Sabha elections, they thought they were undisputed and no longer need anyone. Gaurav Gogoi should sacrifice his arrogance. Congress president Bhupen Borah should answer why he had invited us to meetings at a hotel when his colleague (Gaurav Gogoi) dismissed them as futile endeavours. We will not talk to the Congress unless Borah explains,” said Akhil Gogoi.
Congress leader Dilip Baruah, who was refused a ticket from Behali, told a local channel that the division of votes between opposition parties, including CPI(M) and AAP, contributed to the defeat.
“We will prepare for 2026. If we had been united — CPI(ML) that won 5,000 votes and AAP with 1,100 — we could have stayed ahead. We will now contemplate if there’s a need for all opposition parties to get back together for 2026,” said Baruah.
He added: “I wanted to contest in 2011, but did not get a ticket. Congress leader Pallab Lochan Das, who is now with BJP, had won that time. If I was nominated instead of Jayanta Bora this time, I would have secured more votes. It’s the people who decide, not your money or power.”
Baruah however said that Gaurav Gogoi, who was put in charge of Behali, took them all together to oversee preparations in the constituency.
The elections were held in the five assembly constituencies on 13 November as these seats fell vacant following the election of the MLAs to the Lok Sabha earlier this year. The BJP contested three seats of Behali, Samaguri, and Dholai, while its alliance partners AGP and UPPL contested Bongaigaon and Sidli (ST) respectively. The Congress contested all the five constituencies.
‘Not surprised BJP won Samaguri’
Meanwhile, after Tanzil Hussain’s defeat in Samaguri constituency, MP Rakibul Hussain said his son has “lost to Himanta Biswa Sarma”. He further alleged that the BJP resorted to rigging of votes to win.
“The way they rigged over 22,000 votes, we knew winning in Samaguri was impossible. Those from the minority population who are working in other states like Kerala have been shown to vote. The BJP had resorted to threatening people and using muscle power. But we accept this verdict and congratulate the winning candidate,” Rakibul told media persons in Nagaon.
He also attributed the defeat to delimitation and redrawing of boundaries for the Nagaon parliamentary constituency that changed the political dynamics for Samaguri. “Delimitation has affected us — those in Koliabor and Berhampur — might no longer consider themselves part of Samaguri anymore to cast their votes. But we still managed to take a lead. It was Himanta Biswa Sarma who said that he didn’t need Miya votes. We want to be with everyone.”
A BJP worker in Nagaon however alleged that earlier, people in Samaguri had voted under threat from Rakibul Hussain.
Social commentator Mayur Bora said that BJP’s victory in Samaguri was not a fluke, and not even surprising as the party had tried very hard and astutely to win from the constituency.
“Psychology of minority voters is critical. They tend to vote as a group,” he said. Referring to Lok Sabha elections in Dhubri where Rakibul Hussain had won 14.71 lakh votes, defeating All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief and former MP Badruddin Ajmal, Bora outlined the unpredictability of representing a minority-dominated constituency and how people possibly chose to vote against family-centric politics this time. “Look what happened in Dhubri in June — Rakibul Hussain was the beneficiary then. Now his son is the loser.”
Predicting chances for a united opposition in next year’s Assam assembly elections, Bora said: “It is not insurmountable. If people genuinely bury their differences, egos and more importantly, vested interests.”
Gaurav Gogoi expressed hope for the Congress in the future while analysing the poll outcome in Behali. “There is momentum for the party to grow further in North Assam, and that will continue to be my focus…,” he wrote on X.
I take full responsibility for the defeat of the Congress party in Behali.
Despite having no MLAs or ground support in the region, we have significantly increased the Congress vote share in a traditional BJP seat. We have reduced the difference between BJP and Congress by more…
— Gaurav Gogoi (@GauravGogoiAsm) November 23, 2024
(Edited by Gitanjali Das)
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