49ers could lock up the No. 1 seed on Christmas if NFC rivals gift-wrap some losses

A win on Christmas could bring the San Francisco 49ers a rather coveted gift: the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a bye during Wild Card Weekend.

The 49ers extended their lead at the top of the conference Sunday after beating the Cardinals 45-29, and became the first team in the NFL to reach 11 wins, getting there before the Ravens by a few hours. A win next Monday — against Baltimore, no less — would maintain their NFC-leading position, but they could lock up the No. 1 seed if four games go their way.

The first step requires a favor from the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco’s division rival, in the form of a win over the Philadelphia Eagles. From there, the Niners need losses next week from the Cowboys and Lions along with another loss from the Eagles — which would make it four in a row, a streak that was started by the 49ers.

If those come to pass, the NFC’s top spot will be in the 49ers’ hands on Christmas. A win would guarantee that they could not finish any worse than 12-5, which would be the best record all three of the aforementioned teams could finish the season with. The Niners hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles and Cowboys after beating them both this season, while their tiebreaker over the Lions comes from a superior divisional record. Detroit might have two more games left against the NFC North this season, but at 2-2, it can’t catch San Francisco’s 5-0 record against the NFC West.

This is obviously easier said than done. Among those requirements, the Niners have the toughest task as the Ravens are arguably the best opponent any of the top teams in the NFC have to face for the rest of the season. 

Perhaps the Eagles’ ongoing skid continues Monday against the Seahawks, but they’ll have a huge bounce-back opportunity against the floundering New York Giants next week. The Lions also get to face a 7-7 Vikings squad that now has former 49er Nick Mullens at quarterback, Minnesota’s fourth starter of the year. The most likely loss will come from the Cowboys who, after getting thoroughly trounced by the Bills on Sunday, have to once again face a talented AFC East opponent on the road in the Dolphins.

The easiest way to guarantee the No. 1 seed would be for the Niners to win out. Ending the season on that kind of high note is exactly the energy a team looking to win a Super Bowl needs before the postseason. That being said, locking up a week of rest on Christmas would be more in line with the holiday spirit.