SANTA CLARA — As much as the 49ers are energized by having Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup, let’s not pretend his presence is the be-all and end-all when it comes to running the ball in the manner that coach Kyle Shanahan expects.
Especially against the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks opened the season 3-0 and have gone 1-5 since. At 4-5, their game against the 49ers (5-4) Sunday at Levi’s Stadium is a big one in that two teams in the division have four losses and the other two have five.
Yet the 49ers keep getting in the way, mostly because the numbers say they run the ball with impunity of late when Seattle is the opponent. And if the 49ers are to lay the kind of beatdown their fans have been waiting for other than the AFC East lightweight Jets and Patriots, this opportunity is as good as it gets.
With back-to-back road assignments in Green Bay and Buffalo up next, a one-sided division win over Seattle could go a long way toward assuaging an anxious fan base as well as building confidence within the team.
The grisly numbers are these: In the six games the 49ers have won in succession against the Seahawks (including a playoff game following the 2022 season) they’re averaging just over 33 carries and 185 yards. Seattle has averaged 19 rushes for a shade under 69 yards. The 49ers have 10 rushing touchdowns over those six games to the Seahawks’ two.
The bottom line is the 49ers have imposed their will on Seattle in a way that led to a coaching regime change, with Mike Macdonald, the former defensive coordinator of the Ravens, replacing Pete Carroll. Were there other reasons? Sure, but who would doubt Carroll would still be in charge if the 49ers weren’t dominating Seattle at the line of scrimmage?
Even with McCaffrey, the NFL’s rushing leader in 2023, missing the first eight games, the 49ers are ranked No. 6 in rushing at 149.7 yards per game. He returned against Tampa Bay, gained 39 yards on 13 carries, and the 49ers finished with 75 yards on 22 attempts — the first time in 21 games (including playoffs) they failed to reach 100 yards.
Line coach/run game coordinator Chris Foerster cited a lack of rushing attempts, a missed block here and there and a missed read by a back as contributing factors.
“It was obviously not our normal production in the run game,” Foerster said. “The way the game flowed it was to a point where we said we need to throw the ball to give some more chances for guys to make some plays. And that’s what we ended up doing.”
The 49ers have a 35-3 record with 30 or more rushing attempts since they became a major factor under Shanahan in 2019, so there’s no mystery about what the Seahawks should expect to see Sunday.
Yet the 49ers have worked over Seattle both with and without McCaffrey. In the game that started the current six-game win streak, starting quarterback Trey Lance left with a broken ankle, Jimmy Garoppolo came off the bench and the 49ers ran the ball 45 times for 189 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-7 win.
Over the next four meetings, McCaffrey broke 100 yards each time and gained 486 yards on 76 carries. When the 49ers and Seahawks met in Week 6 without McCaffrey, who was rehabbing from with Achilles tendinitis, the 49ers rushed for 228 yards on 33 carries. That’s more than they ever had with McCaffrey in the lineup against Seattle.
In that game, Isaac Guerendo gained 99 yards on 10 carries including a 76-yard run to put the game away.
Tight end George Kittle, who is having a spectacular receiving year, never loses sight of the significance of Shanahan’s quest for 30 rushes per game.
“When you have 35 to 40 runs it means you’re winning,” Kittle said. “It means you’re converting third down. It means you’re playing winning football.”
Not that Seattle isn’t trying. With the 49ers Week 6 game serving as a starting point, the Seahawks recently cut starting linebacker and leading tackler Tyrel Dodson in part because he has been making too many of his tackles after substantial running gains. Seattle also traded starting weakside linebacker Jerome Baker and a fourth-round pick to Tennessee to acquire Ernest Jones with the idea of being more stout against the run.
The last time the Seahawks outrushed the 49ers it came because personal protector Travis Homer raced 73 yards with a fake punt in 2021.
On the flip side, partly because of game circumstances and partly because of stout defense, the Seahawks have done little damage on the ground against the 49ers, averaging 3.7 yards per carry in the six games. Seattle is ranked 29th in rushing, and the offense/defense rushing combo Macdonald was hoping to bring from Baltimore has yet to be in evidence.
Seattle’s leading rusher, Kenneth Walker, has 398 yards on 99 carries with six touchdowns.
Nick Sorensen, the 49ers’ defensive coordinator, is looking at what the Seahawks are capable of, rather than what they’ve accomplished to date on the ground. He cited some games that have gotten out of hand, eliminating the run threat, and believes the Seahawks are working toward getting their offense geared to something approaching 50-50 rather than Geno Smith throwing on most downs.
“I think they truly want to be balanced,” Sorensen said. “Yes, they do spread it out a lot, but Zach Charbonnet is a good back too, and Kenneth Walker is extremely talented. They want to run it and we want to take it away.”