49ers hold top NFC seed but Cowboys, Eagles close

Now comes the part nobody on the 49ers will talk about.

How to best navigate the last four games of the season to get into the postseason not only with the home-field advantage, but as healthy as possible?

Kyle Shanahan will tell you publicly there is nothing to navigate. You take each week as it comes, those cleared medically will play and that’s the end of the story.

He probably even believes it.

But with four weeks to go, and the 49ers talented enough to win all four, there’s also a priority placed on getting their best players into what he calls “the tournament” at somewhere close to their peak.

That means being careful with defensive tackle Arik Armstead, who has ankle and knee issues and who probably isn’t needed when the 49ers (10-3) visit 3-10 Arizona Sunday. Or cornerback Charvarius Ward, who departed a 28-16 win over Seattle early and didn’t return.

Then there are the statistical dilemmas of getting some rest for guys such as Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Fred Warner, not to mention a rejuvenated Deebo Samuel. If Shanahan and general manager John Lynch could freeze time and just go into the playoffs right now they would.

Instead, four games remain. An eternity. How good did the Eagles look four games ago? How suspect were the 49ers after losing three straight?

Here is how things are looking heading into Week 15:

IN PLAYOFF POSITION

1. 49ers (10-3): Talk about a Christmas Night treat — as it stands now, that Monday night matchup will pit the top seeds in the NFC and the AFC when Baltimore comes to town. Lots of things are going right for the 49ers now, but a great deal of what’s happening is simple — their star-quality players are healthy and playing like stars.

Last four games: at Arizona (3-10), vs. Baltimore (10-3), at Washington (4-9), vs. L.A. Rams (6-7)

2. Dallas (10-3): Considering the quality of the next three opponents, it’s set up perfectly for the Cowboys to back out of the second seed and return to No. 5. If Dak Prescott can keep that from happening, it could win him the Most Valuable Player Award — whether he deserves it above Brock Purdy or not.

Last four games: at Buffalo (7-6), at Miami (9-4), vs. Detroit (9-4), at Washington (4-9)

3. Detroit (9-4): Scoring zero points in the second half and getting punked by the Bears in Soldier Field is a bad sign but the Lions still look capable of winning at least twice and finishing with 11 victories. What Lions fan wouldn’t have taken that on spec back in September?

Last four games: vs. Denver (7-6), at Minnesota (7-6), at Dallas (10-3), vs. Minnesota (7-6)

4. Tampa Bay (6-7): Have felt for a few weeks now the Bucs were the best team in the abysmal NFC South — which by the way wasn’t an opinion I had at the beginning of the season when I had them forecast for double-digit losses and Todd Bowles being the first coach fired. The double-digit losses are still a possibility, but Bowles will make it through the year.

Last four games: at Green Bay (6-7), vs. Jacksonville (8-5), vs. New Orleans (6-7), at Carolina (1-12)

5. Philadelphia (10-3): Look at the Eagles’ remaining schedule and tell me they still couldn’t wind up ahead of Dallas in the NFC East. They’ve never played at a consistent level like a year ago, but they’ve hit a lull like the 49ers hit a lull. And their remaining opponents are eminently capable of helping the Eagles pull out of it.

Last four games: at Seattle (6-7), vs. N.Y. Giants (5-8), vs. Arizona (3-10), at N.Y. Giants (5-8)

6. Minnesota (7-6): Joshua Dobbs or Nick Mullens? Not exactly the scenario Kevin O’Connell was pondering at the beginning of the season. But the Vikings stayed in playoff position with three in the ninth to beat the Raiders in what was very nearly a scoreless regulation game. It’s a great job by O’Connell to keep Minnesota in the hunt but this team has no business in the playoffs.

Last four games: at Cincinnati (7-6), vs. Detroit (9-4), at Green Bay (6-7), at Detroit (9-4)

7. Green Bay (6-7): Taken down by the Giants’ Tommy DeVito, who didn’t turn the ball over, threw just three completions and rushed for 71 yards. Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant. DeVito wasn’t even relevant and wasn’t drafted. Love how the Purdys and DeVitos can turn the NFL Draft on its ear. The Packers still hold a tiebreaker over the Rams based on their win percentage in conference games.

Last four games: vs. Tampa Bay (6-7), at Carolina (1-12), at Minnesota (7-6), vs. Chicago (5-8)

STILL IN THE HUNT

8. L.A. Rams (6-7): The Rams have gone toe-to-toe with what may be the top seeds in each conference — the 49ers (in Week 2) and then Baltimore on Sunday, losing on a 76-yard punt return in overtime. They could face a do-or-die scenario in Week 17 at Levi’s Stadium, the reverse of what the 49ers accomplished in 2021 to get into the playoffs with a win in L.A. to get in as a wild card.

Last four games: at Washington (4-9), at New Orleans (6-7), at N.Y. Giants (5-8), at 49ers (10-3)

9. Seattle (6-7): The Jamal Adams trade and subsequent contract have held back the Seahawks, and helped sink them against the 49ers. If Seattle serves as Philly’s “get well” opponent, its season is done. Based on some of the throws he made on Sunday, Seattle may want to get a longer look at Drew Lock before formulating an offseason plan at quarterback.

Last four games: at Philadelphia (10-3), at Tennessee (5-8), vs. Pittsburgh (7-6), at Arizona (3-10)

10. Atlanta (6-7): Pretenders from the word go, the Falcons face the possibility of winning too many games to get a real prime choice at quarterback to replace Desmond Ridder. If you’re a fan of this team, it’s hard to know what to root for.

Last four games: at Carolina (1-13), vs. Indianapolis (7-6), at Chicago (5-8), at New Orleans (6-7)

11. New Orleans (6-7): The Saints amassed all of 207 yards of total offense against hapless Carolina so don’t be overly impressed with the 28-6 margin of victory. Derek Carr is going to have to be a lot better but the opportunity for a division title is there based on the records of the other three teams, two of whom the Saints play to finish out.

Last four games: vs. N.Y. Giants (5-8), at L.A. Rams (6-7), at Tampa Bay (6-7), vs. Atlanta (6-7)

12. Chicago (5-8): Justin Fields is really making the Bears think about whether they should use their draft cache and the No. 1 pick on a quarterback, because he’s looked pretty good of late. The question is whether Fields would be better off going somewhere else with more continuity in how the offense is coached or staying with the Bears.

Last four games: at Cleveland (8-5), vs. Arizona (3-10), at Atlanta (6-7), at Green Bay (6-7)

JOCKEYING FOR DRAFT POSITION

13. N.Y. Giants (5-8), 14. Washington (4-9), 15. Arizona (3-10), 16. Carolina (1-12)

SCOPING THE AFC

Excluding Super Bowls, Patrick Mahomes has played all his postseason games at Arrowhead Stadium. Looks like that’s about to change. The Dolphins, who hadn’t lost at home all year, blew a 27-13 lead with less than three minutes left Monday night to Tennessee, which hadn’t won on the road. Quarterback Jake Browning has re-inserted the Bengals into the playoff picture. Spots 3 through 11 are up for grabs in a wild final four weeks.