So, break it down for us, how hot is it really going to be like for the summer?
See, generally, we know that climatologically we experience heat waves from March to July. And if you see that April to June is the three months when the highest number of heat waves are experienced and this is also the time when the temperature becomes maximum climatologically. Now, this year, as per the IMD multi-model coupled model forecast, it shows that most parts of the country are likely to experience above normal temperature during the season April to June as well as April, except a few areas of northeast and some pockets of north and northwest India and along the west coast.
Otherwise, almost all parts of the country we are likely to get above normal, both maximum as well as minimum temperatures.
And coming to rainfall, we have given forecast only for April month. Generally that we do, every month we give a rainfall forecast for the next month.
Only for the monsoon season, we give for entire season forecast. So, as per our forecast, during April rainfall is likely to be above normal over north, northwest, and central parts of the country. However, you should understand that these parts during April generally climatologically we receive very less rain. However, we are likely to get more than what we generally receive.
Also, Minister Kiren Rijiju also said that India must brace for extreme weather conditions. Could you elaborate a little bit what exactly does he mean by these extremities?
See, once we say that this is an El Nino year, generally El Nino year it has been seen that we get above normal temperature. So, when you have temperatures that are likely to be above normal, we are also likely to experience above normal heatwave days over most parts of the country. Our forecast also indicated that and already you know that many areas there is a groundwater shortage also there and there can be water issues and whenever temperature is also high during the pre-monsoon time, we can get a significant thunderstorm activity over peninsular India and northeast India.
After El Nino when thunderstorm activity takes place it means that there can be lightning, there can be extreme rainfall on some days.
At the same time in between there can be a time when the temperature will be more and we may get drought like situation. So, there may be shortage of water in the field actually. So, all this can be experienced due to high temperatures.
So, are you seeing any impact significantly on agriculture? Which crops do you believe could be impacted?
See, with our interaction with the agriculture specialist, we understand that in most parts of the country the beet crops are harvested in many parts like MP. 90% harvesting is over and only state like Haryana, Punjab in that, UP etc, there within 10 to 15 days harvesting will be done. And at this stage, they are at matured stage actually, so therefore they say that there will not be much impact of temperature on the beet crop there.
However, in the coming season during April, May, June we can experience a lot of water stress because of the high temperature. So, wherever irrigation facility is not there, their water stress can be experienced.
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