Inflation battle is ‘absolutely’ done

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Wall Street up
The S&P 500 closed higher for the fifth straight session buoyed by the latest inflation print. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 242 points, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.03% gain after spending most of the session in negative territory. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped, while U.S. oil prices dropped 1.6% after President Joe Biden said Iran may not attack Israel if a cease-fire deal is reached.

Cisco job cuts
Shares of Cisco rose more than 5% in extended trading after the network gear supplier said it would cut 7% of its global workforce. The company will take a $1 billion pretax charge to implement its restructuring program. It also announced better-than-expected quarterly results, despite a third consecutive quarterly drop in revenue. The beat was driven by subscription revenue from Cisco’s $28 billion acquisition of Splunk. Before Wednesday’s close, Cisco shares were down 10% this year, while the Nasdaq was up about 14%.

M&A snack
Mars is acquiring snack giant Kellanova for $35.9 billion in cash, combining iconic brands like M&Ms, Pringles and Cheez-Its under one roof. The move expands Mars’ snacking portfolio and comes amid a consumer pullback on spending and increased competition from private-label options. Kellanova, spun off from Kellogg last year, saw its net sales top $13 billion in 2023. “We buy businesses to grow businesses, and we look to grow for generations,” Mars CEO Poul Weihrauch said on CNBC’s “Money Movers.” Kellanova shares rose 7.8%

Cooling inflation
U.S. inflation rose 0.2% in July, as expected, driven by housing costs, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly for an annual rate of 3.2%. As inflation trends closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, speculation grows around a potential interest rate cut. The futures market anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting and for rates to be a full percentage point lower than the current 5.25%-5.5% range by the end of 2024. However, Fed officials remain cautious about the timing and scale of future cuts. Here’s the inflation breakdown for July 2024 — in one chart.

Proxy fight
Activist investor Elliott Management plans to launch a proxy fight at Southwest Airlines, nominating up to 10 directors to its 15-person board. Elliott, which currently holds an 11% economic interest in the airline, intends to call a special meeting to push for changes. Elliott blames CEO Bob Jordan and chairman Gary Kelly for the decline in the company’s fortunes and has called on Southwest to oust them.

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Despite the promise, Oracle‘s AI investments are raising concerns due its high stock valuation, competition and uncertainties around profitability and integration. Here’s a trade that wins if Oracle’s AI spending fails to pay off.

Just like a meteorologist watching one storm cell pass and another arrive, markets appear to be permanently walking around with umbrellas up awaiting sunnier days. With the latest inflation data offering some relief, attention is now turning to the size of the Fed’s potential interest rate cut. 

“Net, net, the inflation outbreak is over and the overall picture of core consumer price pressures is quite benign, and even reminiscent actually of the spring and summer of 2019 before the pandemic struck,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said.

“The flare-up in inflation from earlier this year is over,” Rupkey said, adding that while inflation isn’t completely gone, core consumer price pressures are mild. Rupkey expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to give a “thumbs up” for a rate reduction at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. 

“Any Fed official waiting for a little more data to make the decision on whether to cut interest rates got it in spades this morning,” he said. “The risks for Fed officials at this point are more on the downside for the economy and labor markets rather than on the upside for inflation.”

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, echoed similar sentiments about inflation, saying the fight was “absolutely” done. 

“I’ve been predicting since the summer of 2022 that we get to 2% to 3% by the end of last year and early this year, and we’re basically there,” Yardeni told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “We think we’ll get to 2% by the end of the year.”

However, Yardeni pointed to geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East, as his primary concern, noting the recent surge in oil prices due to concerns about a potential Iranian attack on Israel.

“What’s going on between Russia and Ukraine and the tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, there’s a lot of geopolitical risk. You know the price of oil on Monday was up 3% on all this war talk about the Iranians about to attack Israel. And I think a lot of yesterday’s rally was because the Iranians said if the Israelis and Hamas work out a cease-fire then they won’t attack Israel.”

Yardeni remains optimistic about the economy, expecting a strong upcoming employment report. He forecasts a single, modest 0.25-percentage-point rate cut from the Fed this year, dismissing predictions of more aggressive cuts of 50-100 basis points.

As market watchers debate the size of Fed rate cuts, CNBC’s Jeff Cox takes a closer look. 

— CNBC’s Samantha Subin, Alex Harring, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Jesse Pound, Tony Zhang, Ari Levy, Justine Fisher, Rohan Goswami, Leslie Josephs and Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.