The direct transfers to women, seniors, widows and disabled persons, subsidised gas cylinders, and free units of electricity alone are estimated to cost Rs 36,000 crore annually, even with the financial implications of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) and other promises left aside.
On the other hand, if the BJP retains power in Haryana, nearly Rs 17,500 crore or 10% of the budget would be spent on direct transfers to women alone — one of the promises in the party’s manifesto.
The BJP’s manifesto for the Haryana assembly elections makes 20 promises. Five of them are similar to those made by the Congress. Both parties, experts say, have resorted to populist promises to appeal to voters across the spectrum.
Commenting on their manifestos, N.K. Bishnoi, an economics professor at Guru Jambheshwar University of Science and Technology, Hisar, said, “Haryana’s economy has been undergoing structural transformation. However, it appears that political parties are behind the curve and treading the beaten path.”
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Social security pensions
When releasing the manifesto on 18 September this year, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge said that all seven promises by the party had been made with the budget in mind.
However, a hike in the social security pension from Rs 3,000 per month to Rs 6,000 alone will cost nearly Rs 12,500 crore annually, more than one-third of the Rs 36,000 crore annual financial burden of the promises.
The 12,500 crore amount is calculated in the backdrop of 34,66,543 beneficiaries presently getting different kinds of social security pensions, with 20,66,592 getting old age pensions and 8,78,861 getting widow pensions, according to the social welfare department website.
The BJP’s manifesto, instead of hikes in the social security pensions, promises to link pension to the dearness allowance.
Professor N.K. Bishnoi said doubling the social security pension was a populist move. It would be better if the pension, in some manner, could be indexed to per capita income, he said.
Monthly allowance, subsidised gas cylinders for women
The Haryana Congress’s first promise is that women aged 18 to 60 will receive Rs 2,000 per month — an announcement through which the party is appealing to 75 lakh women voters in the state.
According to a graphic on the Haryana voter registration data published by ThePrint in January this year, as of 22 January 2024, the number of women voters in the 18 to 19 age group was 1,13,346.
The number was 15,70,724 in the 20 to 29 age group, 22,28,670 in the 30 to 39 age group, 18,57,008 in the 40 to 49 age group, and 15,41,472 in the 50 to 59 age group.
Given that one-tenth of 10,80,766 women voters from 60 to 69 were 60 and that some women might not have registered as voters, the number of beneficiaries of the monthly allowance of Rs 2,000, or yearly allowance of Rs 24,000, can be estimated at 70 lakh. This estimation is done given that the number of women must have increased in eight months, and the salaried class of women are likely to be excluded from the scheme, according to a senior Congress leader associated with the manifesto. So, the annual burden of the scheme would be over Rs 16,800 crore.
Since the BJP has announced a Rs 2,100 monthly allowance for women, its promise will likely cost the state’s exchequer Rs 17,640 crore.
In the second part of its promises for women, the Congress guaranteed LPG cylinders to women at Rs 500. Currently, 46 lakh families in Haryana are being provided domestic gas cylinders at Rs 500 by the government. This incurs a monthly expense of nearly Rs 230 crore, translating to an annual cost of Rs 2,700 crore. Given that 66.97 lakh households are registered in Haryana under the Parivar Pehchan Patra scheme, the Congress’s promise will likely cost over Rs 3,900 crore.
Professor N.K. Bishnoi said women are still highly disempowered in Haryana and money to them can be a good starting point.
“However, it would be better if parties also come up with plans for providing more employment to women and to increase female labour force participation rate by giving subsidies to employers to provide jobs to local women. Similarly, women entrepreneurship can be encouraged with GST reimbursements,” said Bishnoi. “Gas cylinder is a welcome step as it will directly help improve women’s health — not in good shape in Haryana.”
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300 units of free electricity, jobs for youth
The Congress party has also attempted to appeal to 250,000 employees, who have been demanding the restoration of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) for a year and formed the OPS Sangharsh Morcha too, by including the OPS implementation in its manifesto.
Facing the Old Pension Scheme issue, the BJP lost the 2022 Himachal Pradesh assembly elections. With Himachal Pradesh sharing borders with Haryana, the Congress aims to make this issue impact the Haryana elections, as well.
The Congress party has also promised 300 units of free electricity in Haryana. There are roughly 45 lakh domestic electricity connections in the state. The current electricity tariff costs Rs 2,500 crore annually. Experts estimated that Congress’s announcement would create an additional Rs 300-400 crore annual burden on the state’s treasury.
Professor Bishnoi said that free electricity to those below the poverty line could be a good move but across-the-board subsidy is not advisable. “In fact, in Haryana, industry and businesses are already complaining about the high costs of power, and this step can put more pressure on them — by way of cross-subsidy. Therefore, the Congress party should also declare its plan to keep the costs of power for industry and business at competitive levels,” Bishnoi added.
To address the prominent issue of unemployment in Haryana, the Congress has promised 200,000 permanent jobs to appeal to the youth. According to central government data, the unemployment rate for people aged 15 to 29 in urban areas of Haryana is 11.2%. In 2023, 37% of Haryana’s population was unemployed, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data shows.
The Congress, following the model of former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s government, has also promised to implement the Chiranjeevi scheme in Haryana, under which, people will be provided free treatment of up to Rs 25 lakh. Some of this may go towards treating people suffering from drug addiction — the Congress has promised a ‘nasha mukt‘ Haryana.
MSP legal guarantees, caste-based survey
In a major move, the Congress included MSP legal guarantees in its manifesto for the Haryana elections.
At least 80% of Haryana’s population is connected to farming. In 2020-21, the farmers protested against three agricultural laws that the central government introduced but eventually repealed.
Amid the protests, the central government promised to create a legal guarantee for the minimum support price (MSP) for crops but, so far, has not decided on it although a committee has been formed for this purpose.
In its seventh guarantee, the Congress party has promised a caste-based survey, something it had in its Lok Sabha election manifesto, as well. Nearly 21% of Haryana’s voters belong to the Dalit community.
Through the caste-based survey, the party aims to assess the economic and social conditions of various castes and sub-castes. It also promises to implement the 10% reservation for the economically weaker sections (EWS) of all castes and communities without discrimination.
The promises in the BJP’s manifesto that are similar to those made by the Congress include financial aid for 7.8 million women aged 18 to 60, housing for poor people in urban and rural areas, LPG cylinders at Rs 500 for homemakers under the Har Ghar Grihini scheme, 2,00,000 permanent government jobs for the youth, and increased pensions for the elderly, disabled, and widows.
The BJP, however, has steered clear of the Old Pension Scheme, which the Congress has promised to restore if it forms the government in Haryana.
Like the Congress, BJP would also need to spend thousands of crores to fulfil these promises. On top of that, the BJP has made 15 more promises.
Two central government schemes in the BJP’s 20-point manifesto are the construction of the Kundli–Manesar–Palwal orbital rail corridor and the launch of new Vande Bharat trains, along with several rapid rail services and an intercity express metro service between Faridabad and Gurugram.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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