U.S. crude oil rose nearly 3% on Wednesday as traders fear Israel could target Iran’s oil infrastructure in retaliation for a ballistic missile attack.
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, vowed late Tuesday that Israel will exact a “painful” response against Iran. Danon’s threat came hours after the Islamic Republic launched around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
Here are Wednesday’s energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $71.86 per barrel, up $2.03, or 2.91%. Year to date, U.S. crude has gained less than 1%.
- Brent December contract: $75.50 per barrel, up $1.94, or 2.64%. Year to date, the global benchmark is down about 2%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0113 per gallon, up 2.27%. Year to date, gasoline is down nearly 5%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.984 per thousand cubic feet, up 3.04%. Year to date, gas is up nearly 19%.
“The next turn in this retaliation spiral may very well involve oil – via the degrading of Iran’s oil capacity or Iran’s proxies attacking oil and gas shipping from the Persian Gulf,” Piper Sandler analysts told clients in a Wednesday note. Israel might take aim at Iran’s oil industry to hit Tehran’s income and degrade its ability wage war, they said.
The geopolitical risk premium, however, should remain moderate given high spare oil capacity globally and the fact that there have been limited actual production disruptions, Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby told clients Wednesday.
OPEC+ is planning to increase oil production in December, and U.S. output has been set records. Demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer, has also been soft this year.