Hurricane Milton surged Monday into a monster Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds in the Gulf of Mexico, and is forecast to remain a dangerous major hurricane ahead of landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
“Milton is a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale,” the NHC alerted in its 2 p.m. advisory noting it had “explosively” intensified. “While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.”
As of 2 p.m., the NHC said it had sustained winds of 175 mph, which is an extremely powerful Category 5 hurricane, the highest level in its wind scale. Sitting amid the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and low wind shear, it was located 700 miles southwest of Tampa and 105 miles west-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, moving east at 9 mph north of the Yucatan peninsula.
It’s forecast to turn toward the east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday and approach Florida’s Gulf Coast by Wednesday night.
“The storm has moved a little slower than projected, but remember, don’t get wedded to the cone,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday afternoon. “There will be impacts far outside the cone, and these cones can shift, and so there’s not an approximation that you can hang your hat on about where this storm is actually going to make landfall. All folks on the west coast of the Florida peninsula should be prepared for potential major impacts.”
DeSantis warned that this storm has been exceeding the predictions so far, and to stay vigilant.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about what is going to happen in terms of this track. It is predicted that this will weaken, but, you know, it was not predicted it would get this strong to begin with,” he said. “So we can hope and pray that it does weaken. But as of right now, this is a ferocious hurricane.”
Evacuation efforts have congested highways to the point the state has dropped all tolls in west and Central Florida and Alligator Alley. It has also opened up the shoulders on sections of Interstate 4 and 75, cleared by the state Department of Transportation, to assist in the evacuation.
“Right now, the usage on I-75 is about 90% more than what would typically be happening right now,” DeSantis said.
“This is not a good situation. It is a very serious situation,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “We’ve got aircraft, both at NOAA and the hurricane hunters at the Air Force constantly in this storm to get us the latest readings as we track intensification. Things change real quick on us.”
He said he expects the wind field to expand as it approaches the coast.
“I really want to urge everybody, this is really important. I’ve seen this before,” he said. “Even if you have fluctuations in the maximum wind speed, because the winds come down a little bit before landfall, we’re still talking a major hurricane. Expect the wind field to expand. That means more storm surge and more areas that could see the significant wind damage.”
More sandbagging sites open in Central Florida as Hurricane Milton approaches state
It had rapidly grown from a tropical storm with 50 mph winds Sunday morning to a Category 5 hurricane increasing 125 mph in intensity in just under 33 hours.
“By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake.
For now the system has a tight wind field with hurricane-force winds out to 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds out to 80 miles.
“Milton’s remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover, and the eye is becoming better defined,” Blake said.
He noted only Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007 had more rapid intensification among NHC records.
Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said this is the latest in the calendar year ever for a Category 5 hurricane with at least 175 mph winds on record. He said it was the strongest in the Gulf of Mexico since 2005’s Hurricane Rita.
It’s also only the second October Category 5 hurricane in the satellite era since 1966 he said after 2018’s Hurricane Michael.
Its path is expected to shift to the east and then northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday headed up toward Florida’s Gulf Coast within a cone that has also shifted north since earlier Monday.
It now stretches from near Fort Myers Beach north to the Big Bend near Horseshoe Beach, but still potentially targets landfall near Tampa Bay by Wednesday, hitting an area that just endured major surge and damage from Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.
Its forecast intensity is expected to be dialed back by landfall, but still at Category 3 strength by 7 p.m. Wednesday just offshore with 125 mph sustained winds and 155 mph gusts.
Storm surge of up to 12 feet is projected by the NHC on parts of coast.
“We’re talking about storm surge values higher than the ceiling,” said Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie. “Please. If you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate. If they have called for your evacuation order, I beg you, I implore you, to evacuate. Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave.”
More sandbagging sites open in Central Florida as Hurricane Milton approaches state
Evacuations on much of Florida’s west coast barrier islands have already begun.
“We had situations where people died of drowning in Hurricane Ian. Had they just gone across the bridge from Estero Bay, Sanibel Island and so on, just across the bridge to the first available shelter that had capacity, they’d still be alive today,” he said.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency announced President Biden had authorized FEMA to coordinate all disaster relief efforts in the state and approved 75% federal funding for emergency protective measures including direct federal assistance to 37 counties that were part of DeSantis’ original emergency declaration request, and the same level limited to direct federal assistance to an additional 14 counties.
“We also have a storm that’s already very powerful now, the forecasts are that it’s going to peak before it reaches landfall, and then weaken. It is still going to be a strong storm,” DeSantis said. “We don’t know that that’s necessarily going to happen, and so this is something that’s going to be really, really significant one way or another.”
The NHC’s intensity forecast said it could reduce strength as it approaches Florida’s coast on Wednesday.
“The system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven said.
Rainfall also is forecast to dump 5-10 inches across much of the state with some areas getting as much as 15 inches.
While the intensity may fall just before landfall, the wind shear will be push stronger winds farther east.
“Vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated,” Blake said. “However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area.”
The system is expected to lose intensity as it crossed the peninsula, but the projected path has it never losing hurricane strength.
“It isn’t like it’s just going to be a rainstorm,” DeSantis said. “I mean, all the way until it exits the state is going to be powerful so please take the appropriate precautions, listen to your local officials, and we’ll get through this. We’ll respond very quickly, but, but this does have the potential to have a lot of damage.”
The debris leftover from Hurricane Helene poses a major risk, he said.
His state declaration ordered all landfills and similar sites to be open 24 hours to deal with the massive amounts of debris leftover from Helene.
“We had a lot of debris left from Hurricane Helene on Florida’s Gulf Coast that creates a huge hazard if you have a major hurricane hit in that area this week,” he said. “So we’ve marshaled state assets to be able to help with that mission, and we’re going to continue to do that until it’s no longer safe to do so.”
He said just in the last 24 hours, the state in one of the hardest hit areas has removed almost 500 truckloads totaling more than 9,000 cubic yards of debris.
DeSantis had declared a state of emergency for 51 of the state’s 67 counties, up from 34 declared on Saturday.
Commercial operations at both Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport will cease beginning Wednesday morning, although both airports will remain open for emergency use.
“Put your hurricane preparedness plan in place, make sure your gas tanks are filled,” DeSantis said on Sunday. “Make sure you have enough water and nonperishable food to last you as long as the power may be out, clear up loose objects in your yard. Obviously, the big debris piles, you need that to get hauled away. But anything other than that that isn’t debris,” he said.
Much of the state including all of Central Florida remains under a flood watch from Sunday though Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.
“Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,” the NWS advisory states. “Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”
In addition, swells generated by the system will begin to hit the southwestern Gulf of Mexico coast today, spreading to the north and east by early next week.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne says tropical-storm-force winds could arrive Wednesday morning for Central Florida with the center of the storm hitting the coast late Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening, making its way across the I-4 corridor and emerging off the east coast before daybreak Thursday.
“Deteriorating weather conditions are forecast in the form of heavy rainfall and increasing gusty winds, especially rainbands,” said NWS meteorologist Tim Sedlock. “A few tornadoes will also be in play on Wednesday.
“The time is now to enact your local hurricane plan and ensure you have supplies, and everything else necessary to ride out this storm,” Sedlock added .
The Space Force’s Space Launch Delta 45 late Saturday put Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Patrick Space Force Base under HURCON 4 predicting surface winds in excess of 58 mph within 72 hours.
The NHC also is keeping track of two hurricanes in the Atlantic.
As of 11 a.m. Monday, what had been Hurricane Kirk became Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiri, and was located about 655 miles west-northwest of the Azores moving northeast at 29 mph with sustained winds of 75 mph.
“An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days,” forecasters said. “Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to remain a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple of days.”
It had earlier this week reached Category 4 level becoming the season’s third major hurricane ahead of Milton.
Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 90 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 310 miles from its center with it approaching Europe by Wednesday.
Despite its distance across the Atlantic, swells from Kirk continue to hit the east coast of Florida and elsewhere this weekend bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
As of 11 a.m. Monday, Hurricane Leslie was located about 1,120 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, which makes it a Category 1 hurricane.
This general motion is expected to continue over the next few days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Friday,” forecasters said. “Gradual weakening is forecast through the week, and Leslie is expected to weaken to a tropical storm in a day or so.”
Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 105 miles from its center.
The NHC also has its eyes on a tropical wave expected to move off the west coast of Africa in the next few days and a system that has been dropping rain over South Florida on Monday.
The Florida system that is not related to the approaching hurricane is an area of disturbed weather located also over the Florida Straits and the northwestern Bahamas that is expected to move northeast where it could form into an area of low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas.
“Some limited tropical or subtropical development is possible while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph,” forecasters said. “However, upper-level winds are likely to increase in a couple days, which should prevent any further development.”
The NHC gives it a 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days.
The tropical wave off of Africa is forecast to move into the far eastern Atlantic in a couple of days.
“Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “The system is expected to move near or over the CapeVerde Islands on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there should monitor its progress.”
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 13 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which grew to major hurricane strength, and four tropical storms.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
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