Japanese and Australian shares fell. South Korea’s benchmark bucked the trend, led by Samsung Electronics Co.’s rally after it announced a stock buyback plan. US futures gained, after the S&P 500 slid 1.3% on Friday to erase more than half of its gains following the US election.
A soft start risks extending last week’s global selloff as investors price the prospect of Donald Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts potentially reigniting inflation in an already robust US economy. A report Friday on October US retail sales that included large upside revisions also aided bets that the Fed may pause its easing cycle in 2025, with the odds of a rate cut next month now seen as less than a coin toss.
“Another Fed cut is still likely in December but it’s now a close call,” Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Ltd. in Sydney, wrote in a note to clients. “A slower pace of easing is likely next year, particularly given that Trump’s policies regarding tariffs and more tax cuts provide some upside threats to inflation on a one-to-three year view.”
The dollar was slightly weaker after climbing 1.4% last week, a seventh straight weekly gain as Treasury yields surged on reduced expectations for Fed policy. The moves, coupled with concerns over Chinese growth, have ravaged everything from the Australian dollar to emerging market bonds. Asian stocks slumped 3.9% last week, their worst sell-off in about six months.
In commodities, oil held a weekly decline on concerns over plentiful supply and weaker demand from top crude importer China. Ukraine’s allies are pushing Volodymyr Zelenskiy to consider new ways to end the war with Russia as the US mulls a final decision to lift some restrictions of western-made weapons to strike limited military targets in Russia. Later on Monday, traders will be watching a speech and media briefing by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda for indications of the central bank’s next policy move after officials raised concerns over the rapid weakening of the yen. “Ueda’s press conference should be the biggest focus of this week in gauging the timing of the BOJ’s next rate hike,” Barclays strategists led by Themistoklis Fiotakis wrote in a note to clients. “USD/JPY could remain under upward pressure in the short term due to the Trump and yen carry trades, but will likely rise more slowly as it approaches 160 on FX intervention concerns and positioning for faster rate hikes.”
Elsewhere this week, China’s banks are expected to keep their loan prime rates unchanged after a cut in October. Bank Indonesia will deliver a policy decision as the rupiah neared 16,000 per dollar on Friday, a key psychological level for a central bank focused on currency stability.
UK and eurozone inflation readings are due which will help gauge the outlook for Bank of England and European Central Bank policy with a swath of officials from the respective institutions also due to speak. Nvidia’s results may test the sustainability of AI-led stock gains.