A combination of bad weather and a grid penalty for Max Verstappen has shuffled the grid for Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix, leaving it unclear as to who is the favourite for victory in Spa.
Verstappen was very clearly the fastest driver in Saturday’s wet conditions as he comfortably topped qualifying, but will start from 11th as he serves a 10-place grid penalty for exceeding his engine allowance for the season.
In Friday’s dry running, McLaren looked well set to profit from Verstappen’s penalty as Lando Norris topped second practice from team-mate Oscar Piastri, but F1’s in-form squad were far less comfortable in the wet.
Norris ultimately salvaged fifth, a place ahead of Piastri, leaving the McLarens to start fourth and fifth on the grid after gaining a position for Verstappen’s demotion.
That leaves a top three on the grid of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, Verstappen’s Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez and the Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton.
The fact that Spa is one of the F1 calendar’s easiest tracks to overtake on means that starting positions are less important than at other circuits, but it remains to be seen just how easily Verstappen and the McLarens will be able to come through the field.
That mystery sets up the prospect of a hugely entertaining race, live on Sky Sports F1 at 2pm on Sunday, with the contest “wide open”, according to Sky F1 pundit Karun Chandhok.
Can Verstappen pull off Spa comeback again?
It’s not a coincidence that this is the third-straight Belgian Grand Prix at which Verstappen has incurred a penalty for exceeding his allowance of parts for the season.
A major factor in Red Bull choosing to take the penalty here is that the track allows a fast car to regain places, as Verstappen did when winning from 14th and sixth in the previous two years.
However, the big difference this time around is that the Red Bull is no longer clearly the fastest car on the grid, a fact highlighted by the Dutchman having gone three races without a win for the first time since the closing stages of the 2021 season.
While Verstappen was quick in the wet, the McLarens appeared to be able to match him in the dry on Friday, making it a tall order for him to return to winning ways.
“Today was good, but I also know that tomorrow is going to be quite different,” Verstappen told Sky Sports F1. “It’s dry, warmer and if you look at the race pace yesterday, McLaren was incredibly fast, very consistent and they will be tough to beat.
“For me, starting 10 places back, I just hope that I can fight with the Mercedes cars and the Ferraris, I think that would be a really good effort from our side.”
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Ted Kravitz looks back on what’s been a fascinating Formula One season so far ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix.
Verstappen, who holds a 76-point lead over Norris at the top of the drivers’ standings with 11 races of the season remaining, insists Sunday’s race is a case of “damage limitation”.
He added: “We’ll see what we can do. I’m not, of course, as confident as I was the last two years around here in coming back to the front.
“I think I still see it more as like a damage limitation race. That’s how it is. But at least today was, I think, the best possible we could do in terms of the starting position for tomorrow.”
McLaren in good position with setup
One of the most impressive elements of McLaren’s emergence as Red Bull’s main rival this season has been the MCL38’s ability to excel at all types of circuits in all types of conditions.
Since Norris claimed his maiden F1 victory at May’s Miami Grand Prix, McLaren have been in contention for victory in each of the seven races that have followed, finally fully cashing in with a one-two in Hungary last weekend.
It was therefore something of a surprise to see them struggling in the wet on Saturday as Verstappen appeared in a league of his own, but team principal Andrea Stella seemed content with his drivers’ grid positions.
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Sky F1’s Ted Kravitz reflects on all the big talking points from the qualifying in Belgium.
He told Sky Sports F1: “I think it’s fair to say that while yesterday we were particularly competitive in dry conditions, there’s no reason why we should be dominating on intermediate tyres, considering that the first top four teams have always been pretty close to one another [on intermediates].
“The second consideration is that we didn’t want to compromise our setup for today’s conditions because we know that tomorrow we need the top speed. We were ready to pay a bit of a price in qualifying because we want to have the most raceable car tomorrow in dry conditions.
“At the moment every weather forecast model is predicting dry, so we wanted to make sure that we didn’t have a glorious Saturday and then a car that is not in condition to capitalise on Sunday. So, from this point of view, I think we are not in a bad position to have a good race tomorrow.”
Can Norris overcome lack of confidence?
Piastri, fresh off claiming his maiden grand prix victory in Hungary, had appeared the more comfortably of the McLaren drivers throughout Saturday but ultimately ended up behind Norris.
Despite a slightly underwhelming Q3, the Australian was confident McLaren remain in the fight for victory.
“We should be confident,” he told Sky Sports F1: “Our dry pace looked very good.”
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Lando Norris discusses his car struggles after finishing P5 in qualifying at the Belgium Grand Prix.
Piastri’s bullishness contrasted with the tone coming from Norris, who began the weekend expressing his regret at overshadowing the Hungary one-two by waiting until the closing stages to action a team order to let his team-mate reclaim the lead.
Norris told Sky Sports F1: “I think coming into today we were optimistic still. I was just struggling a little bit myself.
“Oscar was almost quickest in the first two parts of qualifying. Q3, I think we both just struggled a little bit more. But just from my side, I just haven’t been able to click very well today. I was always just one step behind and just always a little bit on the back foot.
“So, to still have got away with a P5, I was actually surprised with it and therefore happy with it. It’s not like the result I wanted, honestly. And you’ve still got to overtake some quick cars tomorrow, like the Red Bull of Perez, and things like that.”
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Max Verstappen finished well clear of the chasing pack in Belgian GP qualifying but Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc will start on pole due to Verstappen’s 10-place grid penalty.
Given his grid position and McLaren’s apparent pace in dry conditions, Norris would be many observers’ favourite for victory, but the Brit is not giving off the vibe of a driver who expects to win.
He added: “I feel like I’m having to – it sounds terrible – but to try very hard to understand how to drive the car in every corner, whereas the last few weeks and months, it’s just come a lot more naturally and I’ve understood things.
“So just one of those weekends, or days, so far, where I’m just struggling to get that nice, natural feeling you have. But I’ll work hard overnight and make sure we’re as prepared as we can be tomorrow.”
Is Hamilton most likely to cause an upset?
The eventual top three on the grid of Leclerc, Perez and Hamilton came as something of a surprise.
Leclerc’s Ferrari team have fallen away from the battle at the front after a strong start to the season, Mercedes’ recent resurgence appears to have stalled despite the arrival of more upgrades at Spa, while Perez has endured a dismal run of form that has reportedly left him on the brink of a mid-season exit.
Ferrari’s lack of race pace makes it very difficult to see any prospect of Leclerc winning, while staying in the top three is also likely to be out of reach.
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Charles Leclerc looks ahead to race day after inheriting pole due to Max Verstappen’s 10-place grid penalty in the Belgium Grand Prix.
Asked about his prospects of winning, Leclerc told Sky Sports F1:”On paper, it looks very unlikely. McLaren seems to be on another planet this weekend, more than the last few races. The race pace they showed yesterday was incredible.
“Max and Red Bull are strong as well. In the dry, we are not fighting with Mercedes. But starting in front, if we stay in front for the first two or three laps, tyre management will be a big thing and having free air is a big advantage, so I hope we can do that and take the win.”
Perez was three thousandths of a second from being knocked out in Q2 but took advantage of his reprieve to claim his best grid position for 10 races.
The Mexican finished each of the first six races of the season in the top five, but has not finished higher than seventh in the seven races that have followed.
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Sergio Perez says it is nice to be back on the front row of the grid for the Belgian Grand Prix and is now fully focused on a good result in Sunday’s race.
Arriving in Belgium, there was speculation that a poor weekend could see him replaced over the summer break, which means pressure remains on Sunday, particularly given he could potentially aid Verstappen’s hopes by holding up the McLarens.
The reality is that we have seen little over the last couple of months to suggest that Perez will do so, but he undoubtedly has a car that is capable of competing for victory.
“I think yesterday McLaren looked very strong but at the same time, we are not that far away,” Perez said. “We’ve done some changes in the direction of tomorrow, so we’ll see. I think after the first stint we will have a good idea.”
As for Hamilton, his ability to get the most out of his tyres is likely to serve him well in conditions where there is expected to be a high level of degradation, but the Brit seems to think a podium alone would be a major achievement.
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Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were both left despondent with the pace of their Mercedes following qualifying for the Belgian Grand Prix.
“The Red Bulls are much quicker than us here and the McLarens are much quicker than us here,” he told Sky Sports F1.
“The Ferraris, I think, are there or thereabouts with us. Obviously, Max is going to make his way through because I think they are the quickest this weekend. So, holding on to the podium is going to be a hell of a fight – but I’m ready for it.”
Who will win? Have your say!
Sky Sports F1’s live Belgian GP schedule
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Look back at some of the most dramatic moments throughout the years at the Belgian Grand Prix.
Sunday July 28
7:25am: F3 Feature Race
8.55am: F2 Feature Race
10.40am: Porsche Supercup
12:30pm: Grand Prix Sunday – Belgian GP build-up*
2pm: The BELGIAN GRAND PRIX*
4pm: Chequered Flag: Belgian GP reaction
5pm: Ted’s Notebook
*also live on Sky Sports Main Event
The Formula 1 action continues this weekend with the final race before F1’s summer break, the Belgian Grand Prix at 2pm on Sunday. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership – No contract, cancel anytime