Black Friday, Cyber Monday retail sales in the US set to hit record $75 billion in 2024: Bain

U.S. retail sales over the Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend are set to reach a new record, surpassing $75 billion in sales this year, according to Bain & Co.

The new forecast from Bain & Co. predicts year-over-year sales growth of around 5%, outpacing the consultancy firm’s overall holiday sales growth forecast of 3% for the entire holiday season.

​Bain & Co. said its expects 8% of total US holiday retail sales will occur during the all-important BFCM weekend—the highest share of holiday sales since 2019.

The firm said Black Friday is again expected to rank as the top sales day for retailers, while Cyber Monday is fading in relevance, as e-commerce growth slows and many shoppers cite the convenience of online shopping and sales days beyond the core weekend.

Last year, the day before Thanksgiving emerged as a major shopping day, likely influenced by Thanksgiving Day store closures. This year, Bain expects that trend to continue, according to a press release.

“Despite our slower growth forecasts for retailers this holiday season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend will likely be a bright spot, capturing its highest share of holiday spending in the last five years,” said Aaron Cheris, partner in Bain & Company’s retail practice.

“This has to do partly with more stores closing on Thanksgiving Day as well as how the calendar falls this year, with a later-than-usual Thanksgiving. Black Friday is a prime opportunity for retailers to refine their promotion strategies, ensure adequate inventory, and perfect in-store experiences. The retailers who are ready to meet consumer demand this season and prioritize this key holiday shopping window will come out ahead.”

Retail momentum will also continue to be strong throughout the weekends leading up to Christmas, with peak shopping days projected on December 21 (the Saturday before Christmas) and December 23 (the Monday before Christmas).

These late-in-season shopping surges are expected to help give an additional push to retailers achieving strong results in overall holiday shopping this season, the firm suggested.