Merry Christmas, 49ers.
For your present this season, you’ll get to go mistletoe-to-toe with the AFC’s top team, the Baltimore Ravens, and the matchup nightmare that is quarterback Lamar Jackson.
No, Christmas Eve will not be a silent night. There will be too much to do before the big game — a possible (likely?) preview of the big game in February.
But hey, we’ll get to enjoy it all with a nice cup of eggnog.
“It’s going to be a good gift for everyone in the football world on Christmas,” Niners wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk said Thursday.
Now, the Ravens are being a bit of a scrooge out in Baltimore, complaining that the Niners are 5.5-point favorites on the naughty and nice list they keep in Las Vegas.
“We feel a little disrespected by that,” Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton told reporters Thursday. “We’re the best team in the league, and we have an opportunity in front of the country to show it.”
And indeed, the Ravens are no lump of coal, but there’s a good reason the Niners are atop the NFL’s tree:
They have better reindeer pulling the sleigh.
(Not everything needs to be complicated, folks.)
Ahead of big games, I’ve always found it productive to list the game’s best players. What’s the old saying about big-time players, plays, and games?
And seeing as we’re talking about betting lines, it’s best to pick the top 15 — that’s about as big a favorite as you can be in this league.
Now, you can disagree with the following order, but the overall point is clear: The Niners have twice the number of gifts under their tree.
A five-player difference, a roughly five-point advantage. It checks out to me.
But let’s rank ’em:
1. Christian McCaffrey
• A singular force in the game today. The NFL’s best running back, one of the league’s best receivers, and the piece that has taken Kyle Shanahan’s offense to all-time levels. He might not play the most important position on the field, but for the 49ers, he’s been the difference between good and great over the last 14 months.
2. Lamar Jackson
• If you want to put Jackson at No. 1, I wouldn’t fight you. Like McCaffrey, he’s a singular weapon and a game-plan nightmare for opposing teams. He is an outstanding football thrower and an elite runner, so defenses can’t really stop him — they’re just hoping he makes a mistake. In my eyes, the difference between McCaffrey and Jackson is the mistakes: McCaffrey has two lost fumbles this season. That’s the same number as Jackson, who has also thrown seven interceptions.
3. Deebo Samuel
• The ultimate X-Factor and Shanahan’s favorite player, there’s nobody like Samuel in the league. He’s a “plus” running back, a top receiver, and, effectively, a tight end in the 49ers’ offense. When he’s on the field, the defense’s attention needs to be fully on him. That’s a problem when you have the kind of offensive weapons the Niners boast.
4. Trent Williams
• The best left tackle in football, Williams hasn’t lost a regular-season game since Oct 23.
Of 2022.
The run game goes behind him. The passing game is possible because of him. The Niners’ offense doesn’t operate without him.
5. Nick Bosa
• The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has shaken off a choppy start and looks like the game-wrecker he has been his whole career the last two months.
Not only is Bosa a quarterback hunter of the highest order, but he is also among the elite when it comes to stopping the run. The upcoming Bosa vs. Jackson matchup is one for the ages.
6. Brock Purdy
• Yes, the NFL’s MVP is sixth. Some will say he should be higher. Others will think he shouldn’t be on the list. Here’s what I know: The Niners’ quarterback is playing the position at a higher level than anyone in the game right now. I can’t wait to see him against one of the game’s most intelligent and talented defenses.
7. Fred Warner
• Warner could make the case that he is the Defensive Player of the Year this season. He has 116 tackles, 2.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, and four interceptions. He is everywhere, all the time. Jackson will prove the ultimate test for him, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a better linebacker for the challenge — he’s the NFL’s best by a solid margin.
8. George Kittle
• The NFL’s best all-around tight end by a solid margin, as well. Kittle can be the Niners’ right tackle or an elite pass-catching option.
9. Roquan Smith
• Finally, another Raven. Smith is arguably the second-best linebacker in the game, behind Warner, of course, and is exceptional in pass coverage, making him the epicenter of Shanahan’s gameplan this week.
10. Charvarius Ward
• The Mooney Man is on a heater right now. In his last three games, he’s locked up DK Metcalf, stymied AJ Brown, and read Kyler Murray like a children’s book for two interceptions. He’s also exceptional as a tackler in the run game. There might be better corners than Ward right now, but the list is short, indeed.
11. Brandon Aiyuk
• The forgotten man in the 49ers’ offensive machine, Aiyuk is still a 1,000-yard receiver and the guy that Purdy looks to get the ball in big situations. Underestimate him at your own peril.
12. Kyle Hamilton
• The versatile and sharp-as-nails safety, Hamilton is vital to the Ravens’ defense, lining up at his declared position but also in the slot. The Ravens love to put six, seven, or eight men on the line, and Hamilton’s ability to do it all makes him a dangerous weapon and a player to highlight for the Niners.
13. Zay Flowers
• Don’t let the little guy get into open space — he’ll leave you in his dust. That said, he can get lost in a bad way for the Ravens — in two of his last six games, he’s had only one catch.
14. Javon Hargrave or Dre Greenlaw
• If Hargrave plays, the 49ers’ run defense dramatically improves. He might be the most underrated interior defensive lineman in the game.
If the Gravedigger can’t go, let’s put the Undertaker in his spot.
The off-ball linebacker might not be the most fundamentally sound player in the game, and he might get lost in coverage, too — but you won’t go a quarter without him letting you know that he is on the field (in a good way). He is a physical presence like few others in the game today — a true enforcer.
15. Justin Tucker
• Yes, a kicker. But the best kicker in the game and perhaps the best kicker in the history of professional football. He deserves to be on the list.
If this game comes down to special teams — as many games between elite teams do – the Ravens will have a big advantage. It makes life easy when you can kick a field goal the moment you cross into your opponent’s territory.
Just missed: Baltimore safety Marcus Williams, center Tyler Linderbaum, right tackle Morgan Moses, defense ends Odafe Oweh and Jadeveon Clowney; 49ers safety Ji’Ayir Brown (yes, the rookie), defensive back Deommodore Lenoir, defensive end Chase Young, defensive tackle Arik Armstead (if he, somehow, plays.)
That’s an overwhelming amount of 49ers on the list.
And ultimately, I expect that to be the difference in the game.
The Ravens are an outstanding team. This has a chance to be the toughest game the Niners play all year.
But I’m now remembering the saying:
Big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games.
Christmas is unquestionably a big-time game.
And the Niners ultimately have more big-time players to make the plays.