budget impact: Capital gains tax hike can impact valuation, little upside left in Nifty: Nomura

Besides macro factors and solid earnings growth, one of the biggest reasons behind higher valuation multiples on Dalal Street is the unflinching faith shown by domestic investors. But the valuation multiples can face headwinds if the domestic flows into equities slow down following rises in short- and long-term capital gains tax in the Union Budget, according to Nomura.

Its Nifty target of 24,860 for December 2024, based on 20x Dec 2025 earnings, shows little upside from current levels. “We are constructive in the long term, given macro stability and expectation of sustained earnings growth,” Nomura said, adding that it is selective and have a bottom-up approach.

Nomura’s top picks are SBI, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, M&M, Bharat Electronics, RIL, Bharti Airtel, Federal Bank, Voltas, Lupin, Medplus and Uno Minda.

“Banks and NBFCs would be positively impacted by the credit-linked subsidy scheme (CLSS) for housing, and credit support for MSMEs. Housing and infrastructure build-out is positive for cement demand, and there is a positive impact on demand for consumer products on the back of rising employment. The cut in custom duty for gold is positive for organised jewellery players,” Nomura said.

The focus on solar energy with changes in customs duty is positive for players in the segment, and the custom duty changes should have a positive impact on EMS and consumer durable companies, it added.Nifty, which has been on a declining path since last Friday, was trading under pressure today as well with the headline index tumbling close to 24,200 level in the morning session.Other brokerages have also retained a positive outlook on Indian markets but in the long-term and have warned that short-term returns could be guided more by the ongoing Q1 earnings season and other global factors.