The first challenge is the distance. Israel is over a thousand miles (more than 1,600 kilometers) away from Iran’s primary nuclear facilities. To reach these sites, Israeli planes would need to fly through the airspace of several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and possibly Turkey.
Another challenge is fuel. According to a report from the US Congressional Research Service, a round trip to the targets would consume all of Israel’s aerial refueling resources, leaving little to no room for mistakes.
The third challenge is Iran’s air defense. Iran’s major nuclear facilities are well-protected, so Israeli bombers would require protection from fighter jets during the operation.
According to the CRS report (Congressional Research Service),this would necessitate a strike group of around 100 aircraft, which is nearly one-third of Israel’s 340 combat-ready planes.
How secure are Iran’s nuclear facilities?
Israel faces a major challenge in dismantling or destroying Iran’s two primary nuclear enrichment sites.
Iran’s major fuel-enrichment facility at Natanz is buried deep underground, while the second-largest site at Fordow is built into a mountain. Destroying them would require weapons capable of penetrating several meters of rock and reinforced concrete before exploding.
Israel used bunker-buster bombs, including 2,000lb GBU-31 bombs, which its air force dropped on four buildings in Beirut on September 27, killing Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
However, Israeli reports indicated that 80 bombs were used in that strike, and it’s doubtful that a similar attack would be enough to destroy Iran’s more heavily fortified nuclear sites.
Experts believe that the only conventional weapon likely capable of doing the job is the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), according to the Financial Times.This massive, precision-guided bomb is around 6 meters long, weighs 30,000 pounds, and can penetrate 60 meters of earth before exploding, according to the U.S. military.
Has Israel created its own bunker-buster bombs?
It’s uncertain if Israel has this capability. Some former U.S. officials have often recommended that Washington provide them.
Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defence, stated that even if Israel were able to get the MOP, its F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets wouldn’t be able to carry it, according to reports from the Financial Times.
In theory, Israel could try using one of its C-130J Hercules transport planes to drop a MOP bomb through its cargo doors, a method called a “ramp drop.” However, the MOP isn’t designed to be delivered this way.
What other options does Israel have?
Israeli jets could target the air intakes and other infrastructure at the nuclear sites to disable them. This could interfere with the precision needed for the centrifuges, which are used to enrich uranium, but it wouldn’t completely destroy them.
Another option is sabotage. In 2021, a power outage or breakdown—likely caused by a deliberate explosion—hit Natanz’s internal power system, which supplied electricity to the underground centrifuges.
In 2010, the U.S. and Israel reportedly slowed down Iran’s nuclear program using the Stuxnet computer virus. However, these attacks were not able to stop the program permanently.
According to experts Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill from the Royal United Services Institute, significantly damaging Iran’s key facilities would need substantial support from the U.S., or even direct involvement. However, even with this level of intervention, there’s no guarantee the facilities would be completely destroyed, as reported by the *Financial Times*.