The Champions League is back underway with a new format – but what do the teams need to qualify for the knockout rounds of the competition?
A new format brings new expectations in Europe this season, with clubs looking at the mathematics to see how many points they would need to qualify for the knockout rounds in the new league phase structure.
Instead of the traditional eight groups of four – with the top two from each group qualifying for the last 16 – a new ‘Swiss-style’ 36-league format has been introduced this season.
The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the last 16, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off against each other to join the top eight teams in that round of the competition.
The bottom 12 teams – from 25th to 36th – will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
So to avoid an early elimination – how many points do you need? And what about the number needed to skip the play-off round and finish in the top eight?
What do you need to finish in the top eight?
The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points from a possible 24 – so five wins and a draw from eight matches, or other combinations – would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which guarantees you a last 16 spot in the New Year.
The data also believes 15 points – so five wins from eight games, or other combinations – could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta’s 50,000 simulations of the league phase.
Fourteen points, so four wins and two draws, is unlikely to be enough for a top eight finish – so the race to five wins is likely to be the target for the biggest sides.
What about to reach the play-offs?
To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points – so three wins and a draw, or other combinations – will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.
It means whichever teams win in the opening round of Champions League fixtures need just seven points from the remaining seven games to guarantee themselves a play-off spot.
Nine points – so three wins from eight games, or other combinations – could be enough to finish 24th, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations.
But just eight points – so two wins and two draws, or other combinations – runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.
So teams will be targeting at least three wins from eight to give them the best possible chance of reaching the Champions League knockout rounds.
The Champions League table – who is on course to qualify?
Arsenal fixtures
September 19: Atalanta vs Arsenal, Gewiss Stadium, kick-off 8pm
October 1: Arsenal vs Paris SG, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm
October 22: Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm
November 6: Inter Milan vs Arsenal, San Siro, kick-off 8pm
November 26: Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal, Jose Alvalade Stadium, kick-off 8pm
December 11: Arsenal vs Monaco, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm
January 22: Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm
January 29: Girona vs Arsenal, Estadi Montilivi, kick-off 8pm
Aston Villa fixtures
September 17: Young Boys 0-3 Aston Villa
October 2: Aston Villa vs Bayern Munich, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
October 22: Aston Villa vs Bologna, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
November 6: Club Brugge vs Aston Villa, Jan Breydel Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
November 27: Aston Villa vs Juventus, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
December 10: RB Leipzig vs Aston Villa, Red Bull Arena, kick-off 8pm
January 21: AS Monaco vs Aston Villa, Louis II Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
January 29: Aston Villa vs Celtic, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
Liverpool fixtures
September 17: AC Milan 1-3 Liverpool
October 2: Liverpool vs Bologna, Anfield, kick-off 8pm
October 23: RB Leipzig vs Liverpool, Red Bull Arena, kick-off 8pm
November 5: Liverpool vs Bayer Leverkusen, Anfield, kick-off 8pm
November 27: Liverpool v Real Madrid, Anfield, kick-off 8pm
December 10: Girona vs Liverpool, Estadi Montilivi, kick-off 5.45pm
January 21: Liverpool vs Lille, Anfield, kick-off 8pm
January 29: PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool, Philips Stadium, kick-off 8pm
Man City fixtures
September 18: Man City 0-0 Inter Milan
October 1: Slovan Bratislava vs Man City, Narodny futbalovy stadion, kick-off 8pm
October 23: Man City vs Sparta Prague, Etihad Stadium, kick-off 8pm
November 5: Sporting CP vs Man City, Jose Alvalade Stadium, kick-off 8pm
November 26: Man City vs Feyenoord, Etihad Stadium, kick-off 8pm
December 11: Juventus vs Man City, Allianz Stadium, kick-off 8pm
January 22: Paris Saint-Germain vs Man City, Parc des Princes, kick-off 8pm
January 29: Man City vs Club Brugge, Etihad Stadium, kick-off 8pm
Celtic fixtures
September 18: Celtic 5-1 Slovan Bratislava
October 1: Borussia Dortmund vs Celtic, Signal Iunda Park, kick-off 8pm
October 23: Atalanta vs Celtic, Gewiss Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
November 5: Celtic vs RB Leipzig, Celtic Park, kick-off 8pm
November 27: Celtic vs Club Brugge, Celtic Park, kick-off 8pm
December 10: Dinamo Zagreb vs Celtic, Maksimir Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
January 22: Celtic vs Young Boys, Celtic Park, kick-off 8pm
January 29: Aston Villa vs Celtic, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
When are the 2024/25 Champions League league-stage matches?
- Matchday 1: September 17-19, 2024
- Matchday 2: October 1/2, 2024
- Matchday 3: October 22/23, 2024
- Matchday 4: November 5/6, 2024
- Matchday 5: November 26/27, 2024
- Matchday 6: December 10/11, 2024
- Matchday 7: January 21/22, 2025
- Matchday 8: January 29, 2025
When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?
- Knockout round play-offs: February 11/12 and February 18/19, 2025
- Round of 16: March 4/5 and March 11/12, 2025
- Quarter-finals: April 8/9 and April 15/16, 2025
- Semi-finals: April 29/30 and May 6/7, 2025
- Final: May 31, 2025
Where is the Champions League final being held in 2025?
The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.