Record rainfall leading to flooding that killed 24 people in Europe earlier in September was twice as likely due to human-caused climate change, a study has found.
The flooding took place across central Europe after Storm Boris stalled over the region between Sept. 12 and 16, inundating Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Austria, the Czech Republic and Germany with the heaviest rainfall ever recorded in some areas and affecting almost two million people.
“Our study has found the fingerprints of climate change in the blasts of rainfall that flooded central Europe,” said Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London and one of the contributors to the report by World Weather Attribution. “Yet again, these floods highlight the devastating results of fossil fuel-driven warming.”
Global warming is leading to more intense rainfall because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture than a cooler one, according to WWA.
Similar storms will become 50% more frequent in central Europe and drop 5% more rain if warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius, the scientists said.
The researchers used weather data and climate models to show the effects of climate change on weather patterns, and compared the rainfall’s likelihood and intensity with that of the climate before the current warming trend.
Earth’s climate is around 1.3 C warmer than the pre-industrial period, and Europe is warming faster than other parts of the world.
“We need to prepare for even more heavy rainfall than what is predicted from these models,” Friederike Otto, co-lead of WWA, said at a news conference on Tuesday ahead of the report’s release.
Despite the record levels of rainfall, the death toll in central Europe was lower than in previous, less widespread flooding events.
This is because early forecasting allowed authorities to prepare by creating flood defense walls, emptying reservoirs and issuing warnings.
In 2002, floods killed 232 people across a similar region.
Yet the impacts this time were still significant, with widespread damage to homes and infrastructure.
“These floods indicate just how costly climate change is becoming. Even with days of preparation, floodwaters still devastated towns, destroyed thousands of homes and saw the European Union pledge €10 billion ($11.18 billion) in aid,” said Maja Vahlberg, technical advisor at Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.