Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading in New York City.
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This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Trump assassination attempt
The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday left one attendee and the gunman dead, and two more attendees in critical condition. Trump was grazed by a bullet and treated at a local hospital, but released late Saturday night. The FBI has identified the shooter, now deceased, as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pa. He used a semi-automatic weapon, according to NBC News. You can find more live updates here.
China’s Third Plenum
China’s real estate problems may be massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third Plenum to focus on high local government debt levels and promoting advanced manufacturing. “The key challenge faced by Beijing is to find an alternative fiscal system, as the current one, which relies heavily on land sales, is under severe pressure due to the plunging land market,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, told CNBC. The much-anticipated delayed policy meeting, scheduled for Monday to Thursday, is a major gathering of the top members of the ruling Communist Party of China that typically happens only once every five years. CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng explains how investors can play the biggest political event in six years.
Dow above 40,000, again
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high and closed above 40,000 for the first time since May, driven by gains in Home Depot and Caterpillar, as investor sentiment shifts away from Big Tech towards some industrial stocks. The move was sparked by hopes of a Fed rate cut following a softer-than-expected inflation report. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rose, but at a slower pace than the Dow, which gained 1.6% for the week. The Russell 2000 also saw significant gains, rising 6%, amid increasing optimism for smaller companies. For further reading, CNBC’s Michael Santoli takes a look at the 21-month bull run and the pivot away from Big Tech.
Google’s biggest deal?
Google’s parent company Alphabet is nearing a $23 billion deal to acquire Wiz, an Israeli cybersecurity startup specializing in cloud security, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources. The acquisition would be Google’s largest ever. Founded in 2020, Wiz has quickly grown and secured investments from prominent firms like Sequoia Capital and Insight Partners. The potential deal reflects Google’s increasing focus on bolstering its cybersecurity offerings and cloud computing capabilities.
Dimon inflation warning
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that inflation and interest rates may remain high despite recent easing in price pressures. He cited factors like large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, trade restructuring, and global remilitarization as ongoing inflationary forces. “Therefore, inflation and interest rates may stay higher than the market expects,” Dimon stated. His comments, made as the Wall Street behemoth topped earnings estimates, contrasted with recent market optimism fueled by June’s dip in inflation, which led to speculation of an interest rate cut.
[PRO] Gearing up for elections
With the U.S. presidential election approaching and stock markets at all-time highs, professional investors are emphasizing portfolio diversification to mitigate risks. Despite a brief downturn due to a rotation out of mega-cap growth stocks, the markets rebounded, setting new records. This is how professional investors are gearing up for the presidential election
The bottom line
Billionaires Elon Musk and Bill Ackerman were quick to endorse former President Donald Trump after an assassination attempt on his life. Although Musk has been a vocal opponent of President Joe Biden’s reelection, he had not previously endorsed Trump. However, Bloomberg reported on Friday Musk made a “sizable” undisclosed donation to a pro-Trump super PAC.
The assassination attempt on Saturday has increased the odds of a Trump victory, according to investors cited by Reuters. Trump’s chances of winning the election have risen to 66% following the shooting, according to political betting platform PredictIt.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are facing a crisis of confidence following President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance. As major donors are withholding funds, Senator Bernie Sanders has urged Democrats to “stop bickering” and unite behind Biden, even though he admits Biden is “not the ideal candidate.”
Politicians universally condemned the assassination attempt on Trump and corporate America echoed their sentiments. Apple CEO Tim Cook said on X, “I strongly condemn this violence.” Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella and Google CEO Sundar Pichai echoed similar sentiments.
Before the latest political upheaval, much of the market was watching to see if Thursday’s inflation-induced rotation was more than a flash in the pan.
“Historically, when the market experiences a significant one-day rotation from large to small caps, the trend tends to continue for the following four weeks. When reviewing the top 5 instances, the largest 10 companies underperformed the rest of the market by -4.8% over the next month. Importantly, the S&P 500 advanced by 4.5% over the same period,” UBS strategist Patrick Palfrey said in a note to clients.
Not everyone is convinced. For the market moves to be characterized as a rotation rather than a bounce, Wells Fargo analyst Christopher Harvey said better earnings expectations are needed. “We would embrace ‘rotation’ if we see stocks stop going down on bad news,” he wrote on Friday. “For now, we remain concerned about earnings, especially for SMID-caps.”
A so-called “great rotation” needs earnings optimism in addition to lower interest rate expectations, Harvey said. Though the consumer price index reading delivered on the rates front, he still sees concerns about corporate financials following Delta‘s weaker-than-expected revenue. “We see an oversold bounce, not a rotation,” he said.
With stock markets reaching all-time highs and the election months away, CNBC’s Lisa Kailai Han noted that professional investors have been advising portfolio diversification.
— CNBC’s Brian Evans, Hakyung Kim, Alex Harring, Kevin Breuninger, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound and Rohan Goswami contributed to this report.