Mumbai: Though present at the INDIA bloc rally in Mumbai on 17 March, Prakash Ambedkar of Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), and grandson of Dr B.R. Ambedkar began his speech by saying that whether “alone or together”, his party will fight the BJP.
Ten days after the meeting, Ambedkar went ahead and announced the names of candidates on nine seats, virtually signaling his exit from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance and the INDIA bloc.
The MVA — comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), the Congress, and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) — has fielded candidates in seven of these nine seats (barring Akola and Wardha).
This could potentially mean a repeat of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections where Ambedkar’s VBA significantly impacted the Congress-NCP alliance by splitting the opposition votes, affecting their chances in at least seven seats.
This time around, the MVA alliance tried to get Ambedkar on board. He joined hands with Uddhav Thackeray in 2022, but as talks over seat sharing began, Ambedkar started demanding equal footing in the alliance. Subsequently, despite attending several MVA meetings to discuss seat sharing, Ambedkar remained non-committal. In fact, he Wednesday said that he is forming a new alliance with Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, who had announced that there will be at least one independent Maratha candidate in all constituencies. However, Jarange-Patil is yet to take a call on whether he’ll support Ambedkar and his party.
All of this could, once again, mean division of votes. And the opposition is aware of it.
“Because of the decision taken by Prakash Ambedkar, there will be division of progressive ideology votes and this will mean advantage BJP,” said Leader of Opposition Vijay Wadettiwar.
But Ambedkar in his address to the media from Akola Wednesday said that VBA was being “used to protect dynasty politics”.
“We have a social tie-up with Manoj Jarange-Patil and are trying to give out a clean alternative by putting up candidates from marginalised and poor sections of the society. Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi was being used to protect dynastic politics, which we do not approve of,” he said.
Ambedkar and his politics have always left everyone guessing. “That’s what he loves doing. He has kept everyone guessing and he has the wisdom to do so. He is a smart politician,” said political analyst Pratap Asbe to ThePrint.
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Ambedkar’s journey in 2019
Before the 2019 elections, Prakash Ambedkar, along with AIMIM, carried out an experiment to bring together different marginalised sections of the society and the parties who represent them.
The VBA-AIMIM ended up damaging the Congress-NCP alliance on at least seven seats that year.
For instance, owing to the influence of VBA, the Congress in Nanded in the state’s Marathwada region — previously considered a stronghold of Ashok Chavan, who was then a Congress leader and is now with the BJP — saw a loss with Chavan losing by a margin of 40,148 votes. He had secured 4,42,138 votes and the VBA, 1,65,341. Had the VBA votes been transferred to Chavan’s tally, the Congress could have retained the seat.
Dr Surendra Jondhale, another political analyst, said that this is what Ambedkar is doing again.
“He doesn’t make any distinction between electoral manipulation and electoral bargaining. He is just repeating the 2019 pattern. He doesn’t tell the parties how much he wants to contest so there is a bargaining option available,” said Jondhale.
According to analyst Prakash Bal, Ambedkar’s politics is very self-centered.
“He always plays selfish politics. It is very unfortunate to say this about Babasaheb’s grandson, but it is true,” Bal said.
He added that Ambedkar is possibly a pawn at the hands of the BJP.
But most experts are uncertain at this point about how much damage VBA could do. “At this stage, we don’t know yet how much damage he can cause considering the changed political equations in the state since 2019, but he will surely do some damage,” said Asbe.
Ambedkar with MVA
In January 2023 and after the Shiv Sena split, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena joined hands with Ambedkar, declaring a Bhim Shakti-Shiv Shakti alliance.
During the alliance formation, Thackeray had invoked the legacy of his and Ambedkar’s grandfathers Prabodhankar Thackeray and Babasaheb Ambedkar.
Even then, Ambedkar had raised doubts over his inclusion with the MVA alliance. His popularity, though, increased post the tie-up.
But, as things progressed and seat sharing meetings began taking place, Ambedkar seemed less than thrilled about the inclusion of VBA within MVA.
He started demanding equal sharing within the alliance and suggested that the MVA should divide the 48 Lok Sabha seats equally — 12 each for each alliance partner.
“All this was done to gain relevance in the state and remain popular in the state. His popularity and strength increased in the state after Uddhav Thackeray got him on board. Now he has more say within the state,” said Asbe.
When the meetings over seat sharing began, he started sending his representatives to the meetings. At times, he would even ask that the invitation come from Rahul Gandhi himself or Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and not from the state Congress president. He would sometimes attend the MVA seat sharing talks, which mostly remained inconclusive.
“We would always invite him but he would just send his representative. He never gave any practical solution. He did the same during the 2019 alliance meetings. We knew from the start that he would someday break the alliance,” said a senior Congress leader.
Not just the Congress but Shiv Sena UBT, too, started getting disillusioned with Ambedkar.
“Some of us within the party were against having him over. But there was a section within the party who convinced Uddhavji to form an alliance with him. But I did not trust him to be with us till the end,” said a senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader to ThePrint.
Later, Ambedkar said that he lost faith in Shiv Sena UBT and NCP (Sharad Pawar) due to their attitude towards VBA and would rather support Congress on seven seats.
The VBA’s proposal to the Congress is not only a “goodwill” gesture, but also an “extension of a friendly hand” for a possible alliance for the future, he said
“I believe the voters are seeing through this selfish politics of Ambedkar. There won’t be any major damage because of the new alliance with Jarange Patil,” said Bal.
Ambedkar and Manoj Jarange-Patil
Over the past six months, the state has seen agitation over Maratha reservation led by Jarange-Patil.
The agitation had led to a rift between Marathas and OBCs within the state as Jarange-Patil demanded reservation under OBC quota.
However, state cabinet minister Chhagan Bhujbal was able to pacify OBCs and consolidate the OBC vote bank. “But Marathas remained scattered,” Asbe said.
Jarange-Patil Sunday appealed to the Maratha community to choose candidates before 30 March for contesting the upcoming Lok Sabha polls as independents. The Maratha community holds sway over 17-18 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra, he claimed.
But on Wednesday, Ambedkar declared that he held talks with Jarange-Patil and Patil was ready to support VBA candidates. There has been no statement from the Maratha quota activist on this yet.
“He came to meet Patil but we haven’t yet made our decision. We will take a call by the 30th, depending on what the public wants us to do,” said Ganesh Shinde, an associate of Jarange-Patil to ThePrint
But, according to Jondhale, a big question remains — what exactly does Ambedkar want to achieve?
“I believe the VBA has reached a political dead end. The Maratha vote is fragmented, so by aligning with Jarange-Patil, who doesn’t have any political organization, what does Ambedkar want to achieve ultimately?” asked Jondhale.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
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