E-commerce to be 41% of global retail sales by 2027 says BCG

Physical stores may have bounced back post-pandemic while e-tail has struggled, but the underlying rise of e-commerce continues and will see it accounting for 41% of global retail sales by 2027.

That’s according to new research by Boston Consulting Group, which said e-sales in 2017 had just an 18% share.

BCG’s Winning Formulas for E-Commerce Growth report is based on a global survey aimed at exploring e-commerce trends from the beginning of the pandemic to this year. It was conducted in Q2 and included respondents from 410 retail and 415 consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies around the world with revenues ranging from $50 million to more than $10 billion.

According to the study, e-commerce sales increased 3% in Europe and 7% in both the US and Asia in 2022. Global growth is expected to achieve a 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through to 2027—not fully recovering to the 12%-14% pre-Covid trend, but still more than double the projected physical stores retail growth of just 4%.

“While e-commerce is gradually reverting to its pre-Covid trajectory, the landscape has undergone a notable and lasting transformation,” said Martin Barthel, a partner and managing director at BCG and a co-author of the study. 

“The rivalry between emerging entrants and established incumbents has heightened, driven by the purchasing patterns of Baby Boomers and Gen X, who collectively wield substantial influence over today’s e-commerce sales.”