This even as the total number of new models planned for FY25 will widely outpace the current fiscal’s eight launched so far with all except one featuring petrol or diesel engines, underscoring the industry’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels.
Concerns over affordability, range anxiety and underdeveloped charging infrastructure will need to be addressed before EVs gain mass adoption in the cost-conscious Indian market, said analysts and industry experts.
Unlike their petrol or diesel counterparts which can see a major segmental shift after the introduction of a completely new model, for EVs, which currently make up less than 4% of the car market, the volume climb would be small.
“On an average, new models added an incremental 28,000 units per month in the current fiscal. In FY25, the incremental push from new models is likely to be only 10,000 units per month,” said Shashank Srivastava, senior executive officer at Maruti Suzuki, the country’s largest carmaker. He attributed it to the higher share of EVs in the total model mix.
Shailesh Chandra, MD, Tata Passenger Vehicles and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility (TPEM) pointed out that the growth in industry volume will be determined by the net impact of macro factors and industry factors like GDP growth, inflation, fuel prices, pent up demand, channel inventory etc. The segmental mix, however, will be more favourable towards CNG and EVs due to their growing acceptance and launch of new models expected during the year.
India’s top five passenger vehicle makers by volume — Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai Motor India, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kia Motors India and MG Motor India and BYD have lined up BEVs for next fiscal as they seek to transition from fossil fuel to electric to meet their carbon reduction goals.
Tata Motors chairman N Chandrasekaran said he doesn’t expect EVs to create a massive segmental shift in demand with the broader car market guided by macroeconomic factors.
Domestic PV sales are expected to end the current financial year with 7-8% growth, which is likely to moderate to 3-5% in FY25 due to the high base and other factors, according to analysts and industry executives.
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