The underlying message is clear: In Jammu division, where Hindus outnumber the Muslims, the BJP has tailored its poll pitch to arouse the sentiments of a constituency that had cheered the set of moves piloted by Shah in August 2019, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special status under Articles 370 and 35A for its complete integration with India.
Back then, even as the city was covered in a blanket of security, Jammu welcomed the developments, breaking out in spontaneous celebrations. In contrast, a sense of disquiet enveloped large parts of the Kashmir Valley, which saw the Centre’s move as a “betrayal”.
Five years later, though, the celebrations have given way to an air of despondency in the city. An economic slump due to the scrapping of the ‘Darbar Move’ — the shifting of the Civil Secretariat from Srinagar to Jammu during the winter months — has local residents upset.
Conversations with a cross-section of locals and political observers bring out another facet of the affair. The issue is not just economic, a fair amount of disenchantment has got to do with politics too.
“Many in Jammu saw the Article 370 move as something that disempowered Kashmir and its political elite. But now they realise that it has not led to their own empowerment. They see themselves as an economic and political collateral damage in the bid to punish Kashmiris,” commentator Zafar Choudhary told ThePrint.
Assembly elections are being held in Jammu and Kashmir after a decade, a period which saw people getting no scope to put an elected government in place.
Jammu has always nursed a grudge over an impression that gained ground over the decades — that successive governments in Jammu and Kashmir and the Centre pampered the Valley. That sentiment remains alive across the Jammu division, notwithstanding the abrogation of special status.
At Katra, for instance, even BJP loyalists admit feeling disenfranchised due to the decade-long gap in holding assembly elections, and the downgrading of the state to Union territory.
“There is really no justification in putting off elections for so long. The presence of local representatives, good or bad, is critical for common people like us who depend on the government for education, health, ration. Even for things like making caste certificates. Ab toh koi sunyai nahi hai (there is no one to hear us out now),” said Dipak Sharma, a graduate who makes a living by selling Vaishno Devi memorabilia at the temple city.
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Fears of losing land, jobs, business to outsiders
The scrapping of special status has also given rise to unintended consequences, even in the Jammu division, such as anxiety regarding outsiders taking over land, commercial properties, and jobs.
While the BJP’s core supporter base elsewhere was thrilled with the idea that revocation of special status to Jammu and Kashmir would allow non-domicile residents to buy land in the erstwhile state, not everyone in Jammu is enthused.
Take a close look at what Mohan Lal, a trader in Jammu’s Raghunath Bazaar, had to say. “You ask me how has Article 370 abrogation changed our lives? Well, anyone can now buy land, do business here. Koi bhi aira gaira nathu khaira aaye jaa rahe hai (all kinds of outsiders are coming here). Crime has increased, power cuts remain as they were,” he said.
It is a sentiment that the BJP may not have foreseen, at least in Jammu’s Hindu-majority sections, essentially a reflection of the difficulty local residents in Jammu are facing in reconciling with the absence of the restrictions Article 370 provided.
Another perception that has gained ground among the local populace of Jammu is that businessmen from other states are bagging contracts for most infrastructure projects in the region.
“The locals often cannot even place bids as they do not meet conditions such as mandatory annual turnovers running into crores,” Lalit Mahajan, chairman of the Jammu Federation of Industries, said. On Saturday, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who was on a visit to Jammu, also raised the issue.
Advantage BJP?
While the litany of grievances find echoes across Jammu, opinion is divided on the extent to which they may find reflection in the ballot box come 1 October. In the 2014 assembly polls, the BJP won 25 of the 37 seats that existed in the division then.
A political analyst based in Jammu also pointed out the BJP has reasons to be upbeat on the Article 370 withdrawal plank as the Congress, which is its primary rival in Jammu, does not have a cogent counter-narrative on the subject.
“The Congress manifesto is silent on Article 370. Its stock response is — go through our CWC resolution dated 6 August 2019. It does not even speak the language of the locals that the scrapping of Article 370 has not led to the transformation that was promised,” the analyst said.
Much has happened since then. The BJP formed a coalition government with sworn rival Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), broke the alliance in 2018, imposed President’s Rule in Jammu and Kashmir, revoked its special status in August 2019, and carried out a delimitation of seats, resulting in the addition of six seats in Jammu division and one in Kashmir.
Nine seats — six in Jammu division and three in Kashmir — were also reserved for the Scheduled Tribes for the first time in the history of J&K. The series of moves, at least on paper, can tilt the scales in the BJP’s favour, the party hopes.
The Lok Sabha polls were a wake up call for the BJP, though. The BJP’s winning margin in the two Lok Sabha seats that fall entirely in the Jammu division took a hit, even as it led in 29 of the 36 assembly segments.
Its vote share came down by 10.10 percentage points in Udhampur and 4.56 percentage points in Jammu, while the share of Congress went up by 9.01 and 5.39 percentage points respectively. The Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat, which is spread across the Jammu and Kashmir divisions, was bagged by the National Conference.
“This happened despite the fact that ever since the PDP-BJP coalition government fell, each and every political move in the region has been to the advantage of the BJP. The Congress has its base in Jammu too but its leadership is Kashmir-dominated. The BJP has a far superior organisational strength. It’s problematic for the BJP that it lost some ground despite these factors,” Choudhary, quoted earlier, said.
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The Praja Parishad movement
The confidence of the BJP also stems from its ideological parent Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s (RSS’s) deep roots in Jammu. Much before the RSS became a force to reckon with in the region and the BJP’s predecessor Bharatiya Jana Sangh was born, it was the Praja Parishad Party, launched in November 1947 with the active support of RSS members Balraj Madhok and Premnath Dogra, which laid the foundations of later-day BJP here by championing causes such as the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A.
The book ‘India Since Independence’, authored by historians Bipan Chandra, Mridula Mukherjee and Aditya Mukherjee, highlights the role of the Praja Parishad Party behind the birth of a “powerful movement” in the Jammu region against Article 370, for the full accession of Jammu and Kashmir into India, “a greater share for Jammu in government services and even for separation of Jammu from Kashmir”.
“The movement soon acquired communal colours with the danger of the state being divided on religious lines — Kashmir being Muslim majority and Jammu being Hindu majority. The agitation in Jammu was led by the Jammu Praja Parishad which later merged with the Jan Sangh, which raised the agitation to an all-India level,” the book notes.
In a letter, dated 17 April 1949, to the then home minister Vallabhbhai Patel, then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had even stated that according to intelligence inputs, the Praja Parishad Party was being financed by Maharaja Hari Singh. The same period saw Jammu scalded by communal riots, scars of which it continues to carry in its social and political discourse.
(Edited by Gitanjali Das)
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