The slim chance that some regions of the Bay Area would see rain this week now has virtually no chance of happening, the National Weather Service said Tuesday.
At the same time, the agency said the more likely chance that dangerous fire conditions may develop has morphed into a certainty.
Neither scenario is going to mean warmer weather.
“The rain we thought we were going to get was more in the North Bay, in Napa and Sonoma counties,” NWS meteorologist Alexis Clouser said Tuesday. “But right now, we aren’t even expecting to get traces of rain anywhere. The system just was not strong enough. That being said, that low pressure that was supposed to bring us rain is going to keep us with cooler temperatures.”
That will hardly minimize the fire danger, officials said. Late Tuesday morning, the NWS upgraded a fire weather watch to a red flag warning for critical fire conditions. The warning covers the interior regions of the Bay Area and the central coast and also includes San Francisco, the Peninsula and the Bay Shoreline.
Clouser said strong offshore winds that will blow toward the water instead of in from it will be a byproduct of the system’s path. Isolated wind gusts could reach 65 mph, while steady winds will blow between 25-35 mph, according to the agency.
“It’s not the temperatures we’re worried about so much as it is the off-shore winds,” Clouser said. “That will dry out the grass fuels even more, and the humidity will be critically low. It’s going to be very windy and very dry.”
PG&E spokesperson Tamar Sarkissian said via email that as of Tuesday morning, the utility had not called for a Public Safety Power Shutoff. The planned electrical blackouts occur often during dangerous fire conditions.
The utility did open its emergency operations center in Vacaville on Tuesday, and Sarkissian said the conditions could create the need for a PSPS.
Safety officials urged residents to be cautious with the fire conditions, urging them to cut back on defensible space in front of their homes and to avoid doing activities that may create a spark or heat up dry vegetation, such as mowing the lawn.
Temperatures that on Tuesday are expected to peak in the low 80s and high 70s in the hottest spots while topping out at about 70 near the water likely will drop a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday before rising again Friday. Areas near the coast may be 10 degrees warmer on Friday but the hottest interior spots are expected to stay in the low-to-mid 80s.
“Once the winds die, it’s going to pretty mellow,” Clouser said.
Originally Published: October 15, 2024 at 7:42 a.m.
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