New Delhi: The Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is in an advanced stage of talks with the BJP to join the NDA camp in an election year, as the Odisha’s ruling party is strongly pushing to renew ties after a gap of 15 years.
Though Patnaik claims to maintain equal distance from the BJP and the Congress, the bonhomie with the Modi government in the last five years — as seen in the latest episode in which the BJD supported Union minister Ashwini Vaishnaw for the second time in the Rajya Sabha polls — suggests that the BJD is keen to do a ‘ghar wapsi’.
On the other hand, the BJP’s Odisha unit has advised the party high command against going for an alliance, saying that it would be better to go solo.
BJP senior leader and former Union minister Jual Oram said that the final call would be taken by the Delhi leadership. “We have deliberated on alliance prospects, and we have communicated our viewpoint to the party high command. It’s up to the central leadership to take a call on whether to go for an alliance or not,” Oram told ThePrint.
The other BJP functionaries — both in Delhi and Odisha — whom ThePrint spoke to emphasised that the main reason behind the BJD’s “growing desire” to return is its realisation of growing anti-incumbency in Odisha where it has been ruling for five consecutive terms since 2000.
More importantly, they said, Patnaik’s aide V.K.Pandian is keen on winning another term with a majority and wants to have the BJP on its side for the need of central funds.
The Odisha chief minister held a meeting of BJD leaders at Naveen Niwas on Wednesday in Bhubaneswar. The next day, the party issued a statement saying that it will “do everything to achieve major milestones for the state by 2036”.
Party President and CM Shri @Naveen_Odisha chaired a crucial meeting with senior leaders of Biju Janata Dal regarding strategy for upcoming Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. It was resolved that BJD will do everything to achieve major milestones for the state by 2036 when… pic.twitter.com/Gluu1ULreP
— Biju Janata Dal (@bjd_odisha) March 7, 2024
On Thursday, senior BJD leader and Odisha minister Pratap Keshari Deb, too, indicated that the alliance was in the calculations of the state’s ruling party.
“By 2036, the BJD envisages that the youth should be well-provided so that they can take the state to the next level. That is why we are saying for the interest of state, the party will take a decision,” Deb said.
A BJD leader conceded to ThePrint that an alliance with the BJP would be a win-win situation for both sides.
“The BJP priority is to get maximum numbers in the Lok Sabha for a third term for the prime minister, while the BJD’s priority is a sixth term of Naveen Patnaik. An alliance with the BJP will not only give benefit of a double engine government, but also infuse fresh energy and central funds in the state,” the BJD leader said.
For the BJP, a formal alliance with its erstwhile NDA partner means gaining a significant regional player in the eastern state where it is trying to get a foothold for two decades, but is hindered by the latter’s presence.
This will also give a push to the NDA’s narrative of achieving 400-plus seats in the Lok Sabha as well as boost the ruling alliance’s numbers in the Rajya Sabha where the BJP still lacks majority. Having another state under the NDA’s shadow would be an added advantage for the BJP.
The Odisha polls this year will be held simultaneously with the general election.
“The central leadership has to decide how it views the state. If the alliance happens, the Congress will strengthen as an opposition party. Being in opposition is more beneficial for the party to form the government in Odisha in the near future. Pandian’s legitimacy will be questioned in the long run if Patnaik gets reduced numbers in assembly. The central leadership has to take a call,” a BJP leader from Odisha told ThePrint.
“It is more beneficial for the party to play the role of opposition in the state and to have a tactical understanding in Parliament.”
A BJP state leader also argued that the “present arrangement (of understanding in the state and the Centre) suits the BJP’s long-term interest of capturing Odisha”.
In 2019, the BJD won 12 out of the total 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, while the BJP tallied eight. Similarly, the BJD wrested 113 assembly seats while the BJP managed 23. But, the BJP managed to increase its vote share from 21.9 percent to 38.9 percent in the general election and 18.2 percent to 32.8 percent in the state election.
“The offer of alliance came from the BJD as it is facing anti-incumbency and Naveen Patnaik’s popularity is not like it was in 2014. Through the Modi push, not only the BJD will protect its political turf but Patnaik will get another five-year term to decide his chart of succession plan,” a BJP core committee member told ThePrint.
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Triangular fight a loss?
A BJP insider told ThePrint that Patnaik’s party is being compelled by three factors to join hands with the BJP.
“Naveen is ageing, and anti-incumbency has been sensed at ground. With the alliance, the BJD will get a fresh momentum of central push and funds. (It will help the BJD to realise) Odisha vision and to fight anti-incumbency for returning to power,” the source said.
Odiyas know that there is a tacit understanding between the two parties, the insider said.
“In the event of a triangular fight, the BJD might suffer loss like the BRS did in Telangana. The Congress tricked voters by saying that the BJP and the BRS have an understanding to win the election. The time is ripe for the BJP to either essay the role of opposition by attacking Naveen, or to get united to maximise their potential
“Although there are a few leaders on either side having reservations, it is time for the party to decide its stand. Then, there is a cost-benefit analysis to consider. The Congress can gain as the BJP loses out opposition space. Conversely, there is a chance to minimise BJD seats and to increase the BJP’s count to 40. For Naveen Patnaik, governing with lesser numbers and an aggressive BJP at an advanced age is politically not a good proposition,” the BJP insider said.
The third factor cited was that Pandian is keen to join forces with the BJP.
“He has held several talks with BJP leaders in Delhi. … It will be more beneficial for Panidian to have an alliance with the BJP. This will not only give him political legitimacy as a minister, but also lend stability to the government. Patnaik, with reduced numbers, will be vulnerable like JD(U). The BJP can split the party in such a situation. That is why an alliance is good for Pandian and Patnaik,” the BJP insider said.
When Patnaik left the NDA after failed seat-sharing talks in 2009, senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj had said that he would regret leaving the 11-year partnership. The clock has turned full circle for the Odisha CM, the BJP sources said.
Meanwhile, BJD MP and senior leader Bhartruhari Mahtab said that both parties were deliberating on an alliance prospect, “but it’s yet to see how things unfold”.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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