Gucci-owner Kering cut to sell as Goldman doubts luxury rally

Last week’s China-fueled rally in luxury-goods stocks is based on unstable foundations, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts.

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Stimulus measures announced by the economic giant are unlikely to have a positive impact on high-end discretionary spending in the near term, Goldman’s Louise Singlehurst wrote in a note on Tuesday, downgrading Gucci-owner Kering SA to sell.

“We expect a difficult six months ahead for the luxury peers,” the analyst wrote. “The appetite to purchase high-end discretionary goods is dependent upon the health and confidence of the consumer.”

This sentiment was echoed by HSBC Holdings Plc’s Erwan Rambourg, who said on Tuesday that the road to a recovery in Chinese luxury consumption “will be long.”

Despite last week’s gains, a Goldman Sachs basket of European luxury goods makers remains down 16% since reaching a peak in mid-March.

Goldman’s Singlehurst is particularly cautious on companies in the middle of a turnaround, like Kering, whose shares have slumped 37% this year. While the analyst is positive on Gucci’s plans to reposition its portfolio to a more “evergreen” style, earnings visibility could take a hit.

“In the current market environment where store traffic is depressed and consumer confidence is soft, particularly in China, we see this is a difficult ambition to achieve,” Singlehurst added.