SAN JOSE — New research suggests downtown San Jose has posted one of the nation’s strongest rebounds from coronavirus-spawned economic maladies, offering hope the city’s urban core can escape a “doom-loop” scenario.
The report from University of Toronto researchers measured mobile phone activity in urban cores across North America to determine to what extent downtown districts are experiencing rebounds in their post-coronavirus activity and visits.
Downtown San Jose is now experiencing 96% of the visits to the city’s urban core that occurred in 2019, the final year before state and local government agencies imposed wide-ranging business shutdowns to combat the spread of the coronavirus, a new report from the Toronto experts has determined.
How high does downtown San Jose’s 96% activity level rank? The 96% mark represents the third-highest activity level in North America, trailing only the 103% activity level for Las Vegas and the 97% mark posted in downtown El Paso, Texas, according to an Oct. 16 update from the University of Toronto academics.
The researchers measured the activity in 66 downtown districts in North America, consisting of 55 in the United States and 11 in Canada.
“San Jose is not just recovering from the pandemic, we are rising up and reaffirming our commitment to solving the problems that all big cities face,” San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan said in comments emailed to this news organization that responded to the newly released research.
The researchers surveyed eight downtown districts in California, including downtown Oakland and downtown San Francisco.
— Downtown Oakland was at 74% of its pre-COVID visits, as measured by mobile device activity.
— Downtown San Francisco was only at 67% of its pre-coronavirus visits.
Here are the activity levels for the other California downtown areas included in the university survey: Bakersfield was at 95%, Los Angeles at 83%, San Diego 80%, Fresno at 74% and Sacramento at 66%.
As for the other downtown areas measured in the Pacific region, Honolulu was at 76%, Portland at 61% and Seattle at 57%.
The information in the Toronto study dovetails with other data reviewed by Alex Stettinski, chief executive officer of the San Jose Downtown Association. Another study that Stettinski has seen supports the concept that San Jose has experienced a big improvement in its visitor traffic but still has some hurdles to clear to achieve full recovery.
“We are actually fully recovered when it comes to visitors from outside of the downtown, other parts of the Bay Area, or even outside the Bay Area,” Stettinski said. “Where we are not fully recovered is activity from people who are working in downtown San Jose.”
Office worker levels are at around 40% of what they were prior to the coronavirus outbreak in March 2020, the first month of the business lockdowns, according to Stettinski.
“Evenings, nightlife, weekends, we are absolutely rocking and rolling,” Stettinski said. “We are really ahead of the game in some ways. But when it comes to back to the office, we are lagging. We’re not there yet. But there has been so much miscommunication and miscalculation about what is going on.”
Some experts warn that political and business leaders may have to scramble to ensure their downtown districts can avoid the sort of “doom loop” scenario that appears to be facing San Francisco.
A “doom-loop” is a cycle that began with the business shutdowns that chased away office workers who began doing their jobs from home or other remote locations, keeping downtown San Francisco nearly empty, which then caused businesses to struggle and eventually close. The widening departures of shops, restaurants and nightclubs make San Francisco even less appealing.
Some experts believe that “doom-loop” scenarios present a real hazard, but researchers also point out that downtown districts have faced other such extinction events in the past.
“As we experience yet another rhetorical onslaught predicting the decline of cities and their downtowns, it is important to remember that cities have faced their share of crises before,” Brookings Institution researchers Tracey Hadden Loh and Hannah Love wrote in a March 2023 report entitled “Breaking the Urban Doom Loop.”
The Brookings researchers noted that American downtown districts have survived a string of seemingly fatal calamities such as suburbanization, white flight, rising crime in urban centers during the 1990s, and New York City’s crisis in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Yet American downtowns have survived all of these woes.
The post-COVID economic ailments are just the latest in the list of forbidding events to confront American urban centers, the researchers note.
“As the heart of our nation’s economy, downtowns have the unique potential and imperative to act boldly and inclusively to rebuild stronger than before,” the Brookings researchers stated in the conclusion to their report.
For San Jose, Mayor Mahan is calling on city residents, business leaders and local government officials to embrace a “back to basics” approach that focuses on addressing the South Bay city’s crime, homelessness, blight and economic vibrancy challenges.
“It is this commitment to keeping our neighbors safe, ending street homelessness, and cleaning up our city that has allowed us to bounce back faster than any other city in the state,” Mahan said.