Several pro-government voices on Persian-language social media have been propounding that a recent ‘earthquake’ in Iran’s Semnan province was, in reality, a nuclear test carried out in secret. O
Several pro-government voices on Persian-language social media have been propounding that a recent ‘earthquake’ in Iran’s Semnan province was, in reality, a nuclear test carried out in secret. One such voice questioned, “Can you imagine what would happen if that explosion took place on the ground in Israel?” Meanwhile, hardline extremists are rallying round the cause of home-grown Iranian nuclear weapons as a measure of ‘self-defence’.
According to Tehran University’s Geophysics Institute, a 4.4-magnitude earthquake occurred at a depth of 12 kilometres in Semnan province, with its epicentre recorded at 35.42° North Latitude and 52.78° East Longitude. The tremor was felt even in the capital, Tehran.
While Iran has acknowledged the ‘Imam Khomeini’ space centre and missile base southeast of Semnan, the site is more than 100 kilometres away from the earthquake’s epicentre. The US Geological Survey also recorded the event as an earthquake, rating it at 4.5 magnitude and a depth of 10 kilometres.
Tweets Hail ‘Iran Bomb’
Even though the seismic activity was recorded at a certain depth, many Persian-language users on such popular platforms as X and Telegram, along with such local apps as Eitaa, are claiming the tremor was actually evidence of an Iranian nuclear test. “I feel proud… Iran has revealed its ‘magical mushroom’—congratulations to everyone who loves Iran,” a pro-government user posted on social media.
“An Iranian bomb is our undeniable right,” read another tweet using the hashtag #NuclearDeterrence, which has been widely used by many in recent days. “Our people deserve a shield of nuclear weapons to protect ourselves. Have the courage to make the historic decision to go nuclear,” said a tweet directed at the authorities, claiming the country’s nuclear programme has already cost $2,000 billion.
Another user tweeted that the decision to develop a nuclear weapon, and whether it had religious sanction or not, was to be taken at the Leader’s discretion. But, when people spoke of developing nuclear weapons, it was mostly about striking a balance of power and fending off attacks without actually using those.
The tweet referenced the Iranian government’s official stance, which is based on supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s disputed nuclear fatwa. This fatwa propounds that Iran has never pursued nuclear weapons because of his religious indictment of every kind of weapon of mass destruction, including N-bombs. Many experts have questioned the validity of this fatwa, especially as Iran’s fast progress in its nuclear programme has raised doubts about its true intentions.
Some users on X argued that the religious ban should be lifted so that Iran can update its nuclear policy. However, many other Internet users have rejected the claim that the tremor at 10.45 pm on Saturday (October 5) was caused by an underground nuclear test, noting that such a test could not have happened at the depth reported by seismology organizations.
Ultra-hardliners who actively spread the rumour on Sunday through Telegram channels and X seem to have been influenced by several English tweets suggesting that Iran may have carried out a nuclear test on Saturday. These claims, including tweets by DD Geopolitics and ConflictX, were based on the incorrect idea that an Armenian seismology station had detected the tremor first. They argued that a comparison between normal earthquake vibrations and nuclear tests showed the event looked like a nuclear test.
However, several Armenian news outlets, including News.am, reported the earthquake using Tehran University’s Geophysics Institute as their source—not an Armenian seismology station, as these tweets had claimed.
DD Geopolitics is an online media outlet reportedly run by Sarah Bills, a former US Navy veteran said to be pro-Russian. According to IranIntl.com, a well-known media outlet, she has been accused of running social media accounts that are ‘notorious for spreading disinformation about the war in Ukraine’.
“The report of a nuclear test in the Semnan desert is not true. However, it’s interesting that many Iranians took notice of it, and compared to before, more people seemed to support the idea,” tweeted Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based Ph.D candidate in international relations at Toronto Metropolitan University, reports IranIntl media. “The idea and demand for developing a nuclear weapon have been growing recently due to the rise in threats against Iran, especially from nuclear-armed countries. It’s now being discussed more frequently in both official and unofficial circles,” Najafi wrote.
The NorNews website, which unofficially serves as the main news source for Iran’s National Security Council, denied the nuclear rumours and emphasised again that nuclear testing went against the country’s defence and nuclear policies. However, the idea that Iran would never carry out such a test without first announcing a policy change does not fully hold up to scrutiny.
Secret N-Testing Sites?
Could Iran potentially have secret nuclear testing sites that are not yet known to the international community?
In 2019, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a think tank based in Washington, released a report claiming that Iran had started a project to build underground nuclear testing sites, referred to as the ‘Field Project’. The FDD has been under sanctions from Iran’s Foreign Ministry for five years. The ministry accused the group of spreading false information, promoting anti-Iran propaganda and playing a role in pushing for stronger economic sanctions against the country.
According to the 2019 report, FDD researchers found what they believed to be the location (southeast of Semnan) where underground tests using non-nuclear explosives were carried out in 2003. These tests were supposedly aimed at developing ways to measure the power of a nuclear explosion through seismic signals. This has led to speculation that an earthquake reported in Semnan may be linked to Iran’s possible first nuclear test.
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: [email protected])
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