“Mahayuti seems to have recovered from the Lok Sabha [elections] debacle, and MVA doesn’t look so united at the moment. So, the election, for now, is looking 50-50. In Lok Sabha, though MVA got more seats, the difference in vote share was not much, which is why it won’t be right to make calculations with Lok Sabha as the basis,” he told ThePrint.
Deshpande added it is “difficult to predict” the outcome of the assembly polls at this point given little clarity over the possible impact of Mahayuti’s post-Lok Sabha damage control in the form of “various populist schemes”, or the possibility of a third front.
In addition to mainstream parties in the fray, smaller parties like AIMIM, Bachchu Kadu’s Prahar Janshakti Party, Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) could also tilt the scales this election.
“The MNS factor can do damage in certain pockets. For example, in Mahim it can damage Sena (UBT) whereas in Nashik, it can damage Mahayuti, so again this is tricky,” said Deshpande. Polarisation along Hindu-Muslim lines, exacerbated by rallies organised by the Hindu Sakal Samaj–an umbrella outfit of Hindutva organisations—is another factor in play.
Since none of the six key players enjoys voter support across the length and breadth of the state, ThePrint explains Maharashtra’s different regions and dominant issues in play in each, from polarisation and big-ticket infrastructure projects to the ‘Maratha vs OBC’ tussle and the demands of onion farmers and those situated along the state’s sugar belt.
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Mumbai
For decades now, the Mumbai region comprising Mumbai and Mumbai Suburban districts, has been a stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena. It was here that Bal Thackeray founded the party in 1966 and also where it has a sizable base of grassroots workers.
The ‘sons-of-the-soil ideology’ Bal Thackeray advocated by opposing non-locals taking up jobs in the city helped the undivided Sena rule Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) for 25 years until the terms of corporators last elected expired in March 2022.
According to estimates by political parties, Marathis account for about 28-30 percent of Mumbai’s population, followed by Gujaratis (19 percent). Migrants from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka and Rajasthan, among other states, make up about another 40 percent.
In this region, with 36 assembly seats, the ruling coalition led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is seeking votes in the name of infrastructure projects including the Mumbai Coastal Road, Metro Line 3, Atal Setu linking Mumbai and Navi Mumbai, and the proposed Thane-Borivali twin tunnel. Maharashtra Cabinet’s decision to scrap tolls for Light Motor Vehicles at all five of Mumbai’s entry and exit points could also work in Mahayuti’s favour.
On its part, the MVA has sharpened its attack on Mahayuti citing its handling of the Dharavi redevelopment project, the contract for which was bagged by the Adani Group. The MVA has turned it into a pan-Mumbai issue, accusing Mahayuti of giving away government land across the city for free to Adani Group in the name of rehabilitation of Dharavi residents.
The ‘Marathi vs non-Marathi’ narrative is also a poll issue in this region, especially with the Opposition attacking the government for ‘losing’ new industrial projects to neighbouring Gujarat. With this, Sena (UBT) along with allies Congress and NCP (SP) is trying to curry favour with the blue-collar ‘Marathi Manoos’.
In the Lok Sabha elections this year, the MVA won 4 of 6 seats here, while the BJP and ally Shinde-led Sena won 1 seat each.
Thane & Konkan
This coastal belt comprising Thane, Palghar, Raigarh, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts accounts for 39 assembly seats. Konkan was once a citadel of communists and socialists but in the 1960s the undivided Sena expanded its footprint here at their expense.
What also helped Sena was many Konkan-based families had members working in Mumbai or Thane where the Bal Thackeray-led party wielded considerable influence.
Thane, which is a part of this region, is also under the limelight this time since it is the stronghold of CM Shinde. Here too, Mahayuti will rely on big-ticket infrastructure projects including the Thane Creek bridge, the proposed Vadhavan Port, the proposed Virar Alibaug Multimodal Corridor, and the proposed Konkan mega refinery project for votes. The MVA is looking to tap into local opposition to some of these infrastructure projects.
Delayed expansion of Mumbai-Goa Highway 66, construction of which has been ongoing for more than 14 years, is another burning issue here.
The collapse of a statue of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj at Rajkot Fort in Sindhudurg in August had provided the MVA ammunition to attack the ruling coalition. The 35 ft steel statue was unveiled by PM Modi just last year. While a probe is underway, MVA—especially Sena (UBT)—is likely to raise the issue here in a bid to earn favour with voters and reclaim Konkan where it suffered a setback in the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year.
BJP has been trying to get a foothold in the core Konkan region, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg, which have been seen in the past as Sena strongholds. With the help of Narayan Rane who hails from her, BJP was able to make a dent in the Sena (UBT) vote here in the Lok Sabha.
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Western Maharashtra
This region, also known as the ‘sugar belt’, was a bastion of the undivided NCP and the Congress. It includes Pune, Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, Solapur and Ahmadnagar districts which together account for 70 assembly seats.
Politics in Western Maharashtra is largely influenced by the cooperative sector (sugar and dairy cooperatives, besides credit societies and even banks). What’s also worth mentioning is that this region gave Maharashtra five of its 20 chief ministers since 1960.
Among political bigwigs who hail from this region is Sharad Pawar.
The Congress-NCP combine won a lion’s share of their seats from this region until 2014 when BJP managed to make inroads. Of the 70 assembly seats here, undivided NCP won 27 in the previous assembly polls, followed by BJP with 20, Congress with 12 and Sena with 5.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, MVA pulled ahead in Western Maharashtra, winning 8 of 10 seats here. The region is now witnessing a fierce tussle for control between Sharad Pawar and nephew Ajit Pawar. Senior Pawar has even managed to get at least two senior BJP leaders from this region over to his side: former Indapur MLA Harshvardhan Patil and Samarjeetsingh Ghatge who is related to the royal family of Kolhapur.
Western Maharashtra will also witness one of the most bitter contests of this election—for control of Pawar family bastion Baramati, where Deputy CM and NCP chief Ajit Pawar is up against nephew Yugendra Pawar of the NCP (SP).
Another seat to watch out for in this region is Sangli, which had led to friction between the Sena (UBT) and the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections this year. The MVA eventually fielded Chandrahar Patil of the Sena (UBT) in this seat, but he came in third after Congress leader Vishal Patil who contested as an Independent and BJP’s Sanjaykaka Patil.
In this region, MVA is looking to capitalise on agrarian distress to attack the ruling coalition, while Mahayuti is relying on its Ladki Bahini Yojana to offset anti-incumbency. Under this scheme, economically vulnerable women are eligible for aid of Rs 1,500 each month.
Marathwada
This drought-prone region accounts for 46 assembly seats scattered across Beed, Latur, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Nanded, Jalna, Hingoli, Dharashiv and Parbhani districts. Given that Marathas and OBCs, along with Muslims, are in significant numbers in this region, Maratha vs OBC consolidation will hold the key in Marathwada this assembly election.
Once a Congress stronghold, Marathwada has given the state four CMs, namely Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar (Congress), Shankarrao Chavan (Congress), Vilasrao Deshmukh (Congress) and Ashok Chavan (earlier with the Congress, now with BJP).
During Sharad Pawar’s brief tenure as chief minister in the 1970s, the state legislative assembly’s nod to a proposal to rename the Marathwada University after Babasaheb Ambedkar had triggered massive protests in Marathwada. The region saw the undivided Sena and BJP expand its footprint here in the 1980s, with communal polarisation revolving around Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar (earlier Aurangabad) taking centre stage.
In 2023, activist Manoj Jarange Patil launched a movement here to demand reservation for Marathas in the OBC category, in what was seen as a bid to consolidate the Maratha vote. It also led to counter-consolidation of the OBCs opposed to a quota through this route.
In the 2019 assembly polls, the BJP and the undivided Sena together won 28 of the 46 seats in Marathwada, while the Congress and NCP won 8 each.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, MVA won 7 of 8 seats in this region.
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Vidarbha
This region with 62 assembly seats and Marathas, OBCs, tribals, and Dalits in sizable numbers is likely to see multiple direct contests between BJP and the Congress.
It comprises 11 districts: Nagpur, Chandrapur, Amravati, Akola, Gadchiroli, Bhandara, Buldhana, Gondia, Wardha, Washim and Yavatmal.
Vidarbha had always been a Congress stronghold but slipped away from the party’s grasp in the 1990s when the BJP started making inroads here. For the next three decades, Vidarbha remained with the BJP-Sena combine. For BJP, its tacit support for the demand for a separate state of Vidarbha turned many voters to its side. But the issue never came to the forefront since the Bal Thackeray-led undivided Sena, then an ally, was opposed to it.
The BJP has since counted on its promise to industrialise Vidarbha to retain its footprint.
In the 2014 assembly polls, when both BJP and Sena contested separately, the former won 45 and the latter only 4 seats in Vidarbha. This was 29 and 7 in the 2019 assembly polls.
The Congress has since regained lost ground in Vidarbha, at least at the level of zilla parishads, panchayat samitis or corporations.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, MVA won 7 of 10 seats in this region.
Another reason Vidarbha is crucial in the BJP’s scheme of things is because the headquarters of its ideological parent, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), is in Nagpur. It is also where some of its top leaders including Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, Maharashtra Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis and state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule hail from.
The high input costs borne by farmers of soybean and cotton are another key poll issue in Vidarbha this election season.
North Maharashtra
This region with 35 assembly seats across four districts, Nashik, Dhule, Nandurbar and Jalgaon, has significant tribal and OBC populations.
Consolidation of OBC votes has helped the BJP here in the past.
Here, unrest among onion growers cost the Mahayuti much-needed seats in the Lok Sabha elections this year. BJP, which won 5 of 6 seats here in 2019, was only able to manage 2 this time. The Congress won another 2, while the NCP (SP) and Sena (UBT) won 1 each.
In the previous assembly elections, BJP managed to win 13 seats in North Maharashtra—more than any other party won on its own. It was followed by NCP with 7, Sena with 6 and Congress with 5. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) also won 2 seats here.
The onion export ban put in place last December and lifted in May this year, along with the Centre’s decision to slash export duty on onion to 20 percent from the earlier 40 percent in September, is also likely to emerge as prominent poll issues in this region. Equally important to note is that tribal votes, especially in Nashik, could play a key role in this region as they did in the Lok Sabha polls when tribal communities rallied behind the MVA.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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