All eyes have been on Iran for more than a year. Naturally, the first BRICS summit with Tehran’s membership is bound to breed speculation about what the prospective new world order would look like. At home, there needs to be an examination of India’s bilateral ties with a country that is seen firmly anti-West in its outlook.
Iran and India are sailing in the same boat, at least momentarily: of the West’s castigation. The temptation may be high on both sides to form a joint front against Western hegemony in the security space. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held bilateral talks with the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, with a focus on strategic cooperation in and beyond the Middle East.
Global Groupings vs Realpolitik
It can be endlessly debated without inching anywhere close to a resolution whether multilateral global groupings make any difference to realpolitik either domestically or internationally. The signalling, however, remains crucial. To begin with, the West is already perceiving the summit as Russia’s show of strength. Headlines like ‘Putin Gathers Allies’ and ‘Putin Hosts Global South Leaders at BRICS Summit Meant to Counterbalance Western Clout’ in Western media outlets expose apprehension.
A complex interplay of sectarian interests and regional dynamics shapes Iran’s geopolitical strategy. It is in the direct line of fire, thanks to Israel’s unchecked belligerence. Already reeling under economic pressure owing to the UN sanctions of 2011, the post-October 7 reality for Tehran is even grimmer. Iran blames the US for almost all of its problems. As such, during the last summit, former president Ebrahim Raisi had anointed Iran’s proposed BRICS membership as one of the ways of getting even with the US and the West at large. “Iran’s membership in the bloc is opposition to American unilateralism.”
India Needs To Defines Its Position
Russia and China share this sentiment of BRICS emerging as a counterbalance to the West. But what about India? India has lauded and endorsed Iran’s presence in BRICS, but will New Delhi also endorse Tehran’s oppressive domestic policies in the name of this cooperative alliance?
India has not stopped buying oil from Iran despite the sanctions and disapproving remarks from the West. Yet, bilateral trade between the two countries has dropped by 26% in one year. Geoeconomics informs Iranian perceptions of the bloc as a critical driver. Iran aims to secure increased volumes of oil and non-oil exports to fellow BRICS members, bypassing the dollar.
Like Russia, Iran is engaged in a high-stakes battle with the West. China doesn’t particularly enjoy a friendly status, either. New Delhi’s balancing act, therefore, is set to be tested on many tricky issues in the near future, including the Israel-Palestine issue.
India has been an outlier in a manner. At the last UN General Assembly vote on a resolution calling for the end to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, India was the only founding BRICS country to abstain, along with the newcomer Ethiopia.
During the Modi-Pezeshkian bilateral, India was urged to play a more substantial role in the Middle East peace process. But what are New Delhi’s realistic options? Calling for peace does not usher in peace; arm-twisting the stakeholders does.
A Sticky Question For New Delhi
Any BRICS decision mandates unanimous agreement. In that sense, it is even trickier than the domestic coalition politics that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has found itself in the midst of after a decade. What will, for example, be India’s stand should Iran want a revival of its nuclear plan? India’s past tussles with the West over its own nuclear programme may trigger another round of strategic unpleasantness over New Delhi’s stance.
India has a long-standing policy of strategic autonomy, and the complexity of its relations with the West is par for the course. The question is only of degree. The scope of India’s support to its alliance partners in any overtures, real or perceived, against the West needs to be clearly defined, if not announced. While BRICS has achieved precious little in tangible terms in the past 15 years, the symbolism of grouping may have consequences for India as ongoing conflicts stretch into the future and new challenges around them emerge.
On the other hand, the internal dynamics of the expanded BRICS are going to pose another challenge. BRICS, only a little more than an ad hoc grouping with diverse challenges and interests, has miles to go to emerge as a counterforce to alliances like the G7 or the Five Eyes, where members have been able to thrash out at least a common minimum programme.
(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based author and academic.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author