Inditex sales growth forecasts dampened by rain in Spain

Expectations of bumper second quarter sales growth at Zara owner Inditex have been dashed by a wet and cold June in its biggest market of Spain, analysts and investors said ahead of earnings due on Wednesday.

Other clothing retailers have also struggled, with rival H&M predicting a 6% fall in June sales, partly due to poor weather in several of its biggest markets. Meanwhile, wet weather in Britain hit summer sales at Primark.

But the world’s biggest listed clothing retailer whose brands include Pull&Bear, Bershka and Massimo Dutti, is not expected to have suffered as much after posting a better-than-expected 12% rise in sales year-on-year for May 1 to June 3.

Inditex’s sales for the whole May-July quarter, however, are expected to have risen by 7%, an analyst poll by LSEG showed. Sales in the first quarter ending in April rose by 7%.

“Inditex should continue outperforming but I assume a slowdown within the quarter due to adverse weather conditions,” said Bestinver Securities analyst Patricia Cifuentes, who expects quarterly sales to rise by 9%.

Poor spring and summer weather across Europe kept many shoppers at home, hitting several leading fashion and apparel companies. That exacerbated the impact of cash-strapped shoppers becoming more selective about their spending.
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In Spain, which accounts for 14.8% of Inditex’s sales, June rainfall was 49% above average, the state weather agency said.

“It (Inditex) has a greater capacity to react to this seasonality,” said Xavier Brun, portfolio manager at Madrid-based Trea Asset Management which holds shares in the group.

Market conditions recovered in July, analysts at HSBC and RBC said in preview notes.
Analysts said Inditex’s pricing strategy will be key.

Zara increased prices more slowly than in the past in the second quarter and less than H&M in the U.S., its second biggest market, according to retail analytics firm Edited.

Zara’s womenswear prices fell 6% year-on-year in the second quarter even as H&M raised its by 1% on average, Edited said.

Despite June’s headwinds, analysts expect Inditex to post a first-half profit of 2.8 billion euros ($3.1 billion) on Wednesday, up 10% from the same period in 2023.

Zara is expected to report another double-digit sales rebound in the first five weeks of its third quarter beginning in August, analysts at HSBC, RBC and Bestinver said.

“In the end, the market should have a good feeling regarding Inditex’s growth potential,” Cifuentes said.