NEW YORK: The result of the Nov. 5 US presidential election might have a positive effect on Japanese automakers, which have strengths in hybrid vehicles, whoever wins the presidency, according to recent analysis by a US research firm.
Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, takes an opposing stance to the policy of current President Joe Biden’s administration of promoting electric vehicles. Even in the event of a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat presidential nominee, a pro-EV policy is likely to retreat under a split Congress, in which one party controls the Senate and the other controls the House of Representatives, S&P Global Mobility said in the analysis.
Based on the current administration’s policies and other information, the research firm projected that the share of EVs in the US market will be 40 percent in 2030.
But the figure is forecast to be 29 percent if Trump wins the election and there is a split Congress. In the scenario of a Trump victory combined with the Republicans taking control of both the Senate and the House, the share would drop to 21 percent, the firm projected.
If Harris wins and the Democrats have a majority in both chambers, the level is seen unchanged at 40 percent. The firm suggested that this scenario is unlikely, however.
A more likely case would be that Harris is pressed to revise the pro-EV policy under a split Congress, which would result in the figure falling to 35 percent, according to the company.
Mike Wall, executive director for automotive analysis at S&P Global Mobility, said that Japanese automakers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. are likely to get a positive impact, regardless of who wins the election. The scenario of Trump winning the election could be even more positive for Japanese automakers considering their strengths in hybrid vehicles, he said.
Meanwhile, an official at a Japanese automaker said, “Whichever candidate wins, the market’s direction of electrification in the medium to long term will remain the same.” As for the event of a Trump victory, however, the official said the impact of the former president’s plans to raise tariffs on cars from China and Mexico would need to be watched carefully.
JIJI Press