A new poll just days before the Nov. 5 election shows Kamala Harris easily winning her home state of California but with less support than expected — a worrying sign for the vice president’s chances in critical battleground states that could decide the race that is tied nationally.
In its last poll before the election, the nonpartisan Berkeley Institute of Government Studies found 57% support for Harris and 35% support for Republican former President Donald Trump among California voters.
Yet that strong margin is lower than President Joe Biden’s performance in California in 2020. Four years ago, Biden handily clinched the Golden State with 63.5% of votes cast to Trump’s 34.3%.
This year, there’s less enthusiasm for Harris among Latino and Asian American voters, according to the poll. That’s not enough to threaten the vice president’s chances of winning California’s 54 electoral college votes. However, that could spell trouble for Harris nationally on Election Day in what is broadly considered a razor-thin race.
“Vice President Harris is in a strong position in California, with roughly equal levels of support among its White, Latino and Asian American voters, and very high support among the state’s Black voters,” Eric Schickler, co-director of the polling institute, said in a news release. “At the same time, her lower vote margins among Latino and Asian Americans compared to what Biden received in 2020 speak to why the broader race across the country is likely to be so close.”
The poll surveyed 4,341 California voters and likely voters online in English and Spanish that represent the state electorate. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points. It was paid for in part by the Los Angeles Times.
In 2020, about 75% of Latino and Asian American voters in California supported Biden, according to CNN exit polls cited by the pollsters. Now that’s dropped to 57% for Latino voters and 56% among Asian American voters, the poll says. Overall, that decline is somewhat offset by strong support by Black voters and college-educated white voters, the pollsters said.
The poll captures Harris’ “vulnerabilities” within swing states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, said David McCuan, professor of political science at Sonoma State University. In the suburbs of Atlanta, for instance, a fast-growing population of Asian Americans could help determine which way Georgia swings on Election Day.
“That’s because this election is still won on the margins — just not in California,” he said.
If the poll is accurate, the shifting politics of Hispanic voters would be an “earthquake” in California politics beyond the presidential election, said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant.
“To see it happening is a little breathtaking, because it’s not a small shift,” he said.
The poll found Harris receiving more support from California’s White voters than Biden did in 2020, 58% to 36%, compared to a narrower 51% to 47% victory margin among White voters for Biden in 2020. The pollsters said that was fueled by strong support for Harris among college-educated White voters, who favor her 67% to 26%. The state’s White voters who have not graduated from college narrowly favor Trump 50% to 45%. Slightly more than three in four of California’s black voters, 77%, are backing Harris, while 82% of Black voters supported Biden in 2020.
Elsewhere, the poll found continued strong support for state Proposition 36, which would toughen criminal penalties for repeated drug possession and shoplifting. Sixty percent of respondents support the measure, and 25% are opposed, suggesting that the closely-watched measure — whose supporters include San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and San Francisco Mayor London Breed, and opponents include Gov. Gavin Newsom — will cruise to victory on Election Day.
Consequential measures on rent control and minimum wage hikes appear to be closer, the poll says.
Proposition 32 would raise the state’s minimum wage to $17 or $18, depending on a business’ size. About 47% support the measure, but opposition has grown modestly this fall, the poll says. Now, about 39% oppose it, up from 36% in September.
Opposition is mounting against Proposition 33, which would expand local governments’ ability to enact rent control, with 45% of those surveyed against the plan, an increase of nine percentage points from late September. About 35% support it.
The poll also found that Rep. Adam Schiff, a Burbank Democrat, is maintaining a strong lead over Republican former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres first baseman Steve Garvey in the race for the U.S. Senate seat of late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, for which appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler declined to run. In the latest poll, Schiff leads Garvey 55% to 35%, with 11% undecided. That is slightly higher for Schiff and lower for Garvey than the IGS poll found last month.
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