Lichtman’s method, developed with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok, includes metrics such as incumbency, midterm gains, third party candidates, short-term economy, long-term economy, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent and challenger charisma, and foreign policy failure and success. For the 2024 presidential race, Lichtman believes Harris has eight of these keys in her favor, which he argues is sufficient to secure her victory.
“Kamala Harris is good on eight of the 13 metrics and therefore has the keys to the White House,” Lichtman states.
The historian is renowned for his accurate prediction of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016, despite almost all polls predicting otherwise. However, some critics argue that Lichtman had actually forecasted that Trump would win the popular vote, whereas Hillary Clinton secured nearly 3 million more votes than Trump. Lichtman’s only erroneous prediction came in 2000 when he forecasted Al Gore’s victory against George Bush; nevertheless, Gore did win the popular vote, and the electoral college outcome was decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.
For the 2024 election, Lichtman notes that eight of his keys favor Kamala Harris, while three favor Donald Trump. The keys benefiting Trump include the party controlling the White House gaining seats in the 2022 midterm elections, the sitting president or vice-president running for reelection, and what he sees as Harris’s lack of charisma.
Lichtman elaborates, noting that the remaining two keys—contexts of foreign policy failure or success—could still swing in Trump’s direction before the election. However, he believes the eight keys favoring Harris are sufficient for her to win the presidency.Most traditional polls keep Harris in the lead, though her margin remains within the error range with two months to go before Election Day. It’s noteworthy that early voting begins the week after the Presidential debate on September 10.Both campaigns have reported ingrained defections from their opponent’s ranks. The Trump campaign on Tuesday cited support from Harris’ running mate Tim Walz’s estranged brother and other family members. On Wednesday, Harris’s campaign was boosted by an endorsement from former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney. Cheney, a staunch conservative and daughter of former U.S. vice-president Dick Cheney, previously opposed Trump. She announced her decision to vote for Harris, citing the danger Trump poses to the United States.
“I would vote for Harris because of the danger Trump poses to the United States,” stated Liz Cheney.