Muzaffarpur: In 2009, veteran socialist George Fernandes was a broken man. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had denied him a Janata Dal (United) ticket for the general elections that year on health grounds. Fernandes was then the sitting MP from Muzaffarpur, a constituency he had represented five times in the Lok Sabha.
Fernandes went to contest the election as an Independent. But, the former defence minister was in for a heartbreak. He came fifth with around 22,000 votes only.
15 years later, history is repeating itself in Muzaffarpur, albeit with slight changes in the plot. Ajay Nishad, the sitting Bharatiya Janata Party MP who was denied a ticket, has now switched to the Congress, and seeks to teach his former party a lesson. Incidentally, he happens to be the son of Jai Narain Nishad, whom Nitish Kumar had picked instead of Fernandes as the JD(U) candidate in the constituency in 2009.
This time, the BJP has fielded Raj Bhushan Choudhary, the then Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) candidate whom Nishad had defeated by over four lakh votes in 2019. Choudhary is now struggling to connect with BJP workers, a section of which still support Nishad.
Among the reasons cited by the BJP workers on the ground to ThePrint are his long association with the party, his familiarity with most workers and the power of money, which made him the favourite of the two candidates in the race within the party.
“Nishad is personally far more popular than Choudhary. He has the contact numbers of most workers on the ground to create momentum. He has been in the party for two terms and even before that. Hence, he trumps Choudhary in terms of familiarity every day,” a local BJP functionary told ThePrint.
Another worker said that it was not easy for the local workers, who worked hard to help Nishad win, to forget him and move on with a new candidate. Both Congress and BJP workers concede that Nishad may not have popular support, but has an advantage only because Choudhary is campaigning against him.
BJP workers told ThePrint that both candidates are not from Muzaffarpur, which is nothing new for the constituency because neither the BJP nor the Congress has fielded a local candidate so far.
Nishad hails from Hajipur, while Choudhary comes from the Rosra region of Begusarai, where he practises medicine.
“Choudhary does not stick to the organisational structure and does not take all senior members of the cadres with him. The district and panchayat level workers do not even know about his programme, and they often learn about his plans from other sources, rather than the candidate himself,” another BJP block functionary said.
For instance, BJP workers in Muzaffarpur told ThePrint, when Bihar cabinet minister Hari Sahni, who also hails from the Nishad community, like Ajay Nishad and Choudhary, came for a public meeting in the Gaighat assembly segment, a senior party worker was not even informed and learnt about it from the public only after the event when Sahni had left.
Party leaders say that Nishad himself has more sway over the Nishad voters of the constituency and that his candidature from the Grand Alliance, which also includes VIP chief Mukesh Sahni, a Mallah leader, gives him an added advantage over his opponent. There are an estimated 1.6 lakh Mallah voters in the constituency.
Another factor that could work in Nishad’s favour is the candidate from the neighbouring Vaishali constituency, where the RJD has fielded Ajay (Munna) Shukla, a strongman from the Bhumihar community. There could be “personal cooperation” between the two in terms of transferring their vote bank to each other in their constituencies.
“There are nearly 2 lakh Bhumihar voters in Muzaffarpur. If Shukla succeeds in winning over these voters for Nishad, he could return the favour in Vaishali, where the Mallahs are equally numerous. If the cooperation between the two translates into action, and that is why both filed their nomination on the same day (Tuesday) to give a signal to their voter base, it will amount to nearly 2.5 lakh solid votes for Nishad in Muzaffarpur,” a senior BJP leader told ThePrint.
The split in the workers was also visible during the nomination process. The BJP district unit served show-cause notices to four of its functionaries for showing up at the nomination venue of Shukla and Nishad.
Speaking to ThePrint, Muzaffarpur BJP president Ranjan Kumar conceded that those four party workers showed up to support Shukla because of the caste factor.
“They have been asked to explain in a week’s time. There is no such split among the workers. Whoever is siding with Nishad now was never a BJP worker, but his personal worker,” Ranjan Kumar said.
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Nishad’s relationship with Congress
While his social network and the caste equation may give Nishad an edge over his opponent, there are other considerations. Local Congress leaders are concerned about his loyalty and commitment to the party’s organisational and ideological goals.
The Congress district unit had proposed Bijendra Chaudhary’s candidature, which was approved and sent to the high command in Delhi. However, senior leaders in Muzaffarpur told ThePrint that Nishad directly approached Rahul Gandhi and sealed the deal for himself.
“He has still not moved away from the BJP mentality, and is not paying attention to the Congress cadre because he thinks they are useless. He is cosying up to RJD leaders in the hope of getting votes from their loyal constituency. For this reason, his symbol was withheld and he received it only hours before the filing of the nomination,” another Congress functionary said.
Congress’ Muzaffarpur district president Arvind Mukul told ThePrint that Nishad met nearly 1,000 of the party workers on 3 May and motivated them to work hard for the Lok Sabha election.
However, both BJP and Congress say that irrespective of the cadres’ support for Nishad or the lack of it, the results will be largely determined by the ‘PM Modi’ factor in Muzaffarpur.
Muzaffarpur goes to polls on 20 May.
(Edited by Mannat Chugh)
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