In the BJP-led NDA, of the 39 constituencies in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is contesting 23, the PMK is contesting 10, former minister G.K. Vasan-led Tamil Maanila Congress is contesting three, TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK is contesting two, and expelled AIADMK leader O. Panneerselvam is contesting one seat.
However, the BJP’s past performance in the six constituencies the PM is set to visit shows that it has been able to pull off a win only in alliance with one of the state’s two Dravidian parties (DMK and AIADMK).
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Modi’s beeline to Tamil Nadu
This year, the PM has already visited the state twice in January, twice in February and twice in March before the announcement of the Lok Sabha polls.
He will now be in Tamil Nadu on 9, 10, 13 and 14 April and will hold roadshows and address public gatherings in Chennai, Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Vellore, Perambalur and Virudhunagar districts.
On 9 April, the PM will visit Vellore and Chennai. In Vellore, Puthiya Needhi Katchi leader A.C. Shanmugam is contesting on behalf of the BJP.
After visiting Vellore, the PM will move on to Chennai, where he is likely to campaign for Tamilisai Soundararajan, Vinoj P. Selvan, Paul Kanagaraj and Pon V. Balaganapathy, the BJP’s candidates for South Chennai, Central Chennai, North Chennai and Tiruvallur constituencies, respectively.
On 10 April, Modi will campaign in the Nilgiris and Coimbatore constituencies for Minister of State L. Murugan and Tamil Nadu BJP president K. Annamalai.
On 13 and 14 of April, the PM will address public meetings in Perambalur and Virudhunagar constituencies, from where Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK) MP T.R. Paarivendhar alias Pachamuthu, and actor-turned-politician Radhika Sarathkumar are contesting for the BJP, respectively.
Tamil Nadu is among the states that send the highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha. The BJP has more or less saturated its potential in Uttar Pradesh, which has the highest number of Lok Sabha seats at 80. Maharashtra remains a mystery considering that political equations have changed a lot there since 2019, while Tamil Nadu is a state where no national party has been able to get a foothold since 1967.
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Implications of PM’s visits
Political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy says the PM is concentrating on constituencies where the AIADMK has an edge and is aiming to secure second place for the BJP in these.
“They might also win a seat or two among these constituencies, but he is only looking at the chances of getting a higher vote share. This is also to establish that BJP as a national party is fighting another national party, the Congress, and its allies, thereby making it a BJP versus Congress and its allies fight,” he explained.
Though the PM is visiting Chennai, according to BJP sources, they have plans to conduct roadshows only in South Chennai constituency, where former Telangana Governor Soundararajan is contesting.
Even though the BJP and its allies have plenty of star candidates, the PM is set to visit only those constituencies where the candidates are contesting on the BJP’s lotus symbol.
Virudhunagar, where Radhika Sarathkumar, wife of actor-turned-politician Sarathkumar who last month merged his Samathuva Makkal Katchi with the BJP, is contesting, and Perambalur, where Paarivendhar won on a DMK ticket in 2019 and is now contesting on a BJP ticket, are the two seats the PM is scheduled to visit.
Modi is not visiting other constituencies, such as Dharmapuri, Theni and Ramanathapuram, from where PMK leader Anbumani Ramadoss’s wife Sowmiya Anbumani, Dhinakaran and Panneerselvam are contesting, respectively.
“They are least bothered about who is in alliance with them, they just want to increase the vote share of the BJP alone,” A. Ramasamy, political commentator and former head of the Tamil department in Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, said.
Ramasamy, who hails from Virudhunagar, said he could hardly see pictures of Radhika Sarathkumar in the constituency in the BJP’s campaign.
“But, on the other hand, in the neighbouring Madurai constituency, I could see the BJP candidate’s picture everywhere, from pamphlets to flex banners. This gives us a sense that even if people join their party, they would only be seen as outsiders who can help in catching the people’s eye and may turn out to vote for them,” Ramasamy explained.
This is the first time since the 2009 Lok Sabha polls when the BJP is contesting more than 10 seats in Tamil Nadu.
In 2009, the BJP had contested on 18 constituencies and secured 5.3 percent of votes. In 2014, the BJP formed a broader alliance similar to 2024 and contested on nine constituencies, securing one seat and an overall 5.5 percent of votes in the state. In 2019, the BJP allied with the AIADMK and contested five seats, securing 3.7 percent of votes.
What does the data say?
The past performance of the BJP in South Chennai, Vellore, Perambalur, Coimbatore, Nilgiris and Virudhunagar in the Lok Sabha elections shows that the party does not have a definitive foothold in some of these constituencies.
Perambalur, Vellore and Virudhunagar
Perambalur, where IJK’s Paarivendhar is contesting on behalf of the BJP, has never voted in favour of the BJP. The party previously fielded a candidate for the seat only in 2014, when Paarivendhar contested on a BJP ticket and ended up in third position securing 23.2 percent of votes.
This time, Arun Nehru, son of DMK minister K.N. Nehru, is contesting on behalf of the DMK, and N.D. Chandramohan, is contesting for the AIADMK from Perambalur.
Similar to the Perambalur constituency, the BJP does not have a base of its own in the Vellore constituency. In the past, the BJP fielded a candidate here in the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections, and secured 1.55 percent and 33.26 percent of votes, respectively.
The rise in the percentage of BJP votes in 2014 is largely credited to Shanmugam, who left the AIADMK in the early 2000s and floated the Puthiya Needhi Katchi. He was the BJP candidate from the seat in 2014.
This time, Kathir Anand, son of DMK minister Durai Murugan, is contesting for the DMK and S. Pasupathi is contesting for the AIADMK from Vellore.
In Virudhunagar constituency, ever since it was established in 2009, it is the second time the BJP has fielded a candidate. The first time, in 2009, it fielded M. Karthik and secured fourth position. This time, B. Manickam Tagore, a Congress candidate, and DMDK leader Vijayakanth’s son Vijaya Prabhakaran are the main competitors in Virudhunagar.
Nilgiris, Coimbatore and South Chennai
Nilgiris was a stronghold of the BJP in the late 1990s, when it won the seat in the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections with 46.49 percent and 50.73 percent of votes, respectively.
Those two years, the party was in alliance with the AIADMK and DMK, respectively. However, its vote share reduced to 32.99 percent in 2004, when it moved to the AIADMK alliance.
In 2009, when the BJP contested alone, it secured only 2.64 percent of votes in the constituency. It did not field any candidate from Nilgiris in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
This time, A. Raja, former Union minister, is contesting for the DMK and Lokesh Tamizh Selvan, son of former assembly speaker Dhanabal, is contesting for the AIADMK.
Of all the constituencies, Coimbatore is considered as the traditional constituency of the BJP, since the party has been fielding candidates there since 1989. Starting with just 3.34 percent of votes in 1989, the party managed to win the seat two times in 1998 and 1999 with a vote share of 55.85 percent and 49.21 percent, respectively.
Though the party lost in the subsequent elections and could not win the seat after 1999, it managed to get a considerable vote percentage of 38.74 percent, 33.62 percent, and 31.47 percent in the 2004, 2014 and 2019 elections, respectively. In 2009, when the party contested alone, its vote share in Coimbatore was 4.61 percent.
This time, the DMK is fielding former mayor Ganapathi Rajkumar, while the AIADMK is fielding Singai G. Ramachandran, IT wing secretary, against BJP’s Annamalai in Coimbatore.
South Chennai is also one of the traditional constituencies for the BJP, where it has been fielding candidates since the 1991 Lok Sabha election. However, the 2014 election was the only time when the party managed to get a double-digit vote share of 24.57 percent.
The DMK is fielding Tamizhachi Thangapandian, sister of minister Thangam Thennarasu, while the AIADMK is fielding J. Jayavardhan, son of former minister D. Jayakumar, against Soundararajan in South Chennai.
Of the six constituencies the BJP is targeting, it is trying to dislodge the AIADMK in five and the DMDK in one.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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