Bernie Moreno and Republicans are attempting to narrow the gap against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio as they try to nab one of the most contested races in the country in a battle for the Senate majority.
After a bruising primary battle in the spring gave way to Brown and Democrats flooding the airwaves over the summer, Moreno and outside GOP groups have returned serve and have helped bring the race within striking distance.
“It’s gonna be close,” former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) said, adding that Moreno “is doing better” as of late.
According to a new internal poll at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Moreno and Brown are deadlocked at 46 percent support with less than a month to go, and with trend lines moving in Moreno’s direction since the spring. The same poll had Brown leading by 7 percentage points in April, with that lead chopped down to 2 points in early September.
The polling average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows Brown up by 2.2 points.
Brown has also seen his image take a hit after a barrage on the airwaves by Moreno and GOP outside groups. The NRSC polls show the incumbent Democrat’s approval and disapproval numbers are dead even at 45 percent, having been 49 to 36 percent back in April.
Republicans outspent Democratic groups by $41 million ($91 million to $50 million) during September in what is easily the most expensive Senate race in the country.
This is buoying Republican confidence, with some arguing that it’s a similar trend line to Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) race against former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) two years ago — though that race was for an open seat and didn’t feature an incumbent.
Ryan had led throughout the summer and into October before Vance overtook him and ultimately defeated him by a 6.5-point margin.
“Brown is going to get massively outspent down the stretch, and the polling is already moving against him,” said one Republican operative who has worked on races in the Buckeye State. “Ohio’s one of these annoying states where voters don’t tell you what they’re going to do until it’s late. … What looks like late movement is just compliance refusal by the electorate.”
“Do you think that Tim Ryan lost 1 in 10 voters in a 20-day span?” the operative added.
Brown and Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.) are the lone Democratic incumbents running in red states, making them both top targets.
That also means former President’s Trump’s performance in the state could prove critical to the Senate race. Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released in late September, Brown held a 4-point advantage (47 to 43 percent) while Trump led Vice President Harris by 6 percentage points.
“It’s a very competitive election. Sherrod Brown has unlimited money. He’s running basically as a Republican. It’s just a question of gravity and how severe is the gravitational pull,” one Republican strategist said. “If Trump wins by double digits, Sherrod’s toast. If Trump wins by 6-7, Sherrod’s got a real shot.”
“In the world we live in, we’ve learned to bet on gravity. At the end of the day, people put on their jerseys. But Sherrod’s running a great campaign,” the strategist continued. “I think [Moreno’s] doing fine, but Sherrod really knows Ohio and works the state. Great constituent services. … But Sherrod’s never had a competitive race in the new Ohio.”
It is unclear whether Trump will headline one of his trademark campaign events for Moreno in the final weeks. According to a source familiar with the situation, no plans are set in stone, but a Trump appearance is a real possibility.
Despite the rosy outlook some Republicans are projecting, others are less confident as Brown continues to show signs of strength.
The three-term senator last week reported that he raised $30.6 million in the third quarter — more than double what he raked in during the prior three-month stretch. His team did not reveal how much he has in cash on hand, with those figures set to come out on Oct. 15, when reports to the Federal Election Commission are due.
Moreno has yet to release his third-quarter fundraising numbers, but has $25 million in ad reservations purchased through Election Day.
And Brown’s campaign is funding a larger percentage of ads in his favor than Moreno’s team is on the GOP side, giving him another advantage. Campaigns can buy airtime at a cheaper rate than outside groups, giving them better bang for their buck.
According to last week’s ad totals, Brown’s camp spent nearly $4 million of the overall $14 million by Democrats. All but $1 million of the $13 million Republicans spent was by top super PACs.
Many of Brown’s ads have honed in on Moreno’s stance on abortion, a key topic for Democrats, especially after Moreno’s recent comments to supporters that it is “a little crazy” for suburban women to base their vote on the issue. Others hit Moreno over lawsuits filed by workers at his car dealerships.
But whether Brown will be able to hold off Moreno’s push in the final weeks is a major question.
“Did the Brown camp do enough to define him to get them over this last deluge from the Republicans’ attacks on Sherrod? We don’t know,” one Democratic operative said. “We know it’s tightening up. The question is the acceleration of the tightening. Can Sherrod stay ahead enough, and can some of these late attacks Democrats are layering in, specifically on abortion, help them [nick] it ahead of Election Day?”
Moreno’s campaign argued in a statement that no matter Brown’s message, he is unable to move the needle with less than a month to go.
“After lighting up the airwaves with nearly $50 million dollars, Sherrod Brown is stuck at under 50% in every single poll,” said Reagan McCarthy, a Moreno campaign spokesperson. “While Brown fundraises with Hollywood elites, Bernie is crisscrossing Ohio and earning every vote. Ohioans are tired of the economic turmoil, border invasion, and chaos on the world stage that [President Biden], Harris, and Brown have created in the last 3 and a half years, and we will send Brown packing on November 5th.”