Nifty might see 3-5% swing this week: Aditya Arora

“If one had to take bullish bias, then they should only take above 24,500. Otherwise, this market could be sell on rally in that kind of a pattern. And if one had to talk about leadership, then banking is having more leadership compared to Nifty,” says Aditya Arora, Adlytick.

How are you looking into this fall in the Nifty that we are seeing today?
Aditya Arora: Look, this was on expected line, the way FIIs have been selling continuously. We have seen the biggest sell figure in October, so that indeed had to create pressure whether you look at the cash markets or derivatives, they are selling left, right and centre. The reason could be that US elections are around the corner and they are planning to be little cautious, taking chips off the table before there could be huge volatility. And I also expect market could see swings of 3% to 5% in this week because you have FOMC meeting also and election outcome in US is also coming out. So, one must be little cautious in the market and play only stock specific, play only level specific. If we talk about Nifty, then we have broken the crucial support of 24,000. If one had to take bullish bias, then they should only take above 24,500. Otherwise, this market could be sell on rally in that kind of a pattern. And if one had to talk about leadership, then banking is having more leadership compared to Nifty.

On the downside, what sort of levels are you watching out for Nifty?
Aditya Arora: As I said in this week, there could be volatility of 3% to 5% so we can see spikes. But if we look at the medium-term trend, then I think Nifty can touch levels like 23,500 to 23,000 in the medium term, not tomorrow, not day after tomorrow, but if we take approach of one to two months, then I think Nifty is headed towards 23,500 and 23,000.

Anything on the sectoral side that one should keep an eye out for because the Nifty IT index, though the market is down around two odd percent, the Nifty IT index is just down 0.4%. Anything on that front?
Aditya Arora: Yes, it is showing relative outperformance, but I could not comment much on this because in this week, you will see great movement in Nasdaq also because of election results. So, we will see trickle-down effect in Indian markets also in IT sector. But one thing which is a little resilient and which does not get affected by all these macros or industrial side developments, that is pharma sector. So, I think that is an evergreen sector. And if you look at the chart patterns also, then I see relative strength over there. This pocket one should closely watch out. I think outperformance is likely over here.

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