Sitting beside Dinkar’s statue in the village, 60-year-old Sudhakar Singh told ThePrint: “Giriraj Singh did not get time to visit Dinkar’s village even on his death anniversary. He has not undertaken any development work here in the past five years. Giriraj will get votes only due to (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi. The PM is popular here as he has ensured rations to the poor.”
Anger against Singh, who has been renominated from Begusarai, was palpable in the Bhumihar-dominated village, which ThePrint visited last week. Singh hails from the Bhumihar caste.
About 40 km from Simariya is Cheria Bariarpur village, also in Begusarai. The Union minister’s cavalcade passed the village without stopping there, leading to a discussion on Singh’s prospects in the seat.
Sheltering from the scorching sun under a tree, Umakant Paswan — from the same caste as Chirag Paswan, leader of NDA ally LJP (Ram Vilas) — said: “(Bihar Chief Minister) Nitish has lost credibility. He has switched from one party to another, who will trust him? He is declining day by day. It’s Modi for whom we will vote.”
Fellow villager Ram Bhola Paswan nodded in agreement while Dipak Kumar Singh, also a Bhumihar from Cheria Bariarpur, said: “Giriraj has not visited our village and people are angry with him but it’s a question of Modi. People will even vote for a donkey if PM Modi asks them to do so.”
The BJP, in power at the Centre, earlier this year drew Bihar’s ruling JD(U) into the fold of the NDA. JD(U) chief Nitish was sworn-in as CM for the ninth time, after he broke ties with the RJD and dumped the state’s Mahagathbandhan alliance. The BJP and JD(U) are now contesting the Bihar polls under the NDA.
People in Begusarai, as well as the constituencies of Munger and Jahanabad, all neighbouring Patna, gave a telling picture of changing political stances in Bihar this Lok Sabha election when ThePrint visited these areas.
The decline of Bihar’s longest serving CM Nitish and his ability to enthuse his core voterbase was evident. The party counts EBCs and Mahadalits — two of the most socially backward groups in Bihar — among its votebank.
What stood out was the unmatched popularity of Modi, which remained the driving factor in Bihar despite issues of unemployment and inflation raised by most voters.
The people of the state believe that India’s stature has risen due to Modi and his welfare schemes, such as Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana and Kisan Samman Nidhi, have been vote-catchers in rural areas.
The third factor defining the Bihar poll is the expanding influence of RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. And JD(U)’s loss could be RJD’s gain. However, in a triangular fight, the JD(U) may survive thanks to the Modi factor.
Speaking to ThePrint, a local JD(U) leader in Munger, said: “Modi is the only factor uniting the EBCs, Dalits and upper castes in this election. Nitish had some traction among women voters but Modi has more traction among women now due to his beneficiary schemes of free rations, Ujjwala and Awas Yojana. We are depending on Modi to garner EBC votes.”
BJP’s OBC morcha general secretary Nikhil Anand also said the PM’s development agenda and beneficiary schemes were driving the elections in Bihar.
Nitish himself has not been blind to the writing on the wall.
After the first phase of polling, the CM warned Muslims — a votebank that has been sympathetic to the JD(U) — in areas dominated by the community in north Bihar about the possible return of violent clashes with the Hindus if he was voted out of power.
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Begusarai, Munger and Jahanabad
In Begusarai, Singh is standing against CPI’s Awadhesh Kumar Rai.
Begusarai was once considered the “Leningrad of Bihar” due to Left influence in the area since the early 1930s, when class struggle between landowners and poor people proved to be fertile ground for the CPI to flourish. The party, however, won the seat only in 1967.
The BJP arrived in Begusarai in 2014 when Bhola Singh won the seat for the party. The following election, Singh won against CPI candidate Kanhaiya Kumar.
In the last two Lok Sabha polls, the RJD and CPI had fought separately and made the road easy for the BJP, but this time the former two are contesting in alliance.
Between Patna and Begusarai is the constituency of JD(U) MP Lalan Singh — Munger. It is estimated to have 1.40 lakh Dhanuks and 1.49 lakh Kurmis, while the Yadavs, traditional supporters of the RJD, constitute 2.93 lakh.
Lalan, former national president of the JD(U), has been renominated and is facing a tough fight this time due to the RJD fielding gangster-turned-politician Ashok Mahto’s wife Anita Devi. Ashok is a Kurmi while his wife is a Dhanuk — both castes part of Nitish’s core votebank.
Lalan will face a challenge if the Kurmis and Dhanuks vote along with the Yadavs. The seat will thus test not just Lalan but Nitish’s core votebank too.
Speaking to ThePrint while sipping tea at a tea stall, Ram Avdesh Rai from Munger’s Pandarak village said he was sure to vote for the RJD .
“We will vote for Tejashwi Yadav. He has raised the issue of employment and Modiji has failed to create jobs for the youth, who have gone to other states for employment,” he explained.
Another person from the village, Dinesh Mahto, issued a warning for Lalan and Nitish particularly.
Stating that he was undecided about his voting preference, Mahto said, “The RJD candidate is from our caste and Nitish has added nothing (to Bihar) in his present term. He worked in the first and second terms by creating good law and order and making roads and giving electricity, but now he is ageing. Everyday, he forgets one thing or another. He is only sitting on the CM’s chair by shifting from one party to another. He should vacate the chair for the BJP or RJD to lead the state and bring more development and employment.”
However, NDA leaders from Munger told ThePrint that Lalan was banking on counter polarisation of disillusioned upper castes, especially after the fielding of Ashok Mahto’s wife that can arouse fears of return of jungle raj (as alleged under RJD rule in Bihar pre-2005).
Less than 50 km from Patna is the Yadav-dominated Sohe village in Jehanabad constituency where the sitting MP is the JD(U)’s Chandeshwar Prasad. He had won the 2019 Lok Sabha election by defeating RJD’s Surendra Yadav by a slim margin of only 1,700 votes. Both are standing again this election from the seat.
Dev Nandan Mahto and Vikas Kumar, sitting in a hut in the village, said they had voted for the JD(U) candidate last time, but he has “not visited the seat in five years”.
“This time, we will try Surendra Yadav who lost narrowly last time. Repeating Chandeshwar is a big mistake by Nitish Kumar,” said Vikas.
One kilometre away from Sohe is Bhumihar and upper caste-dominated village Karauna where Pintu Kushwaha — from the Kushwaha backward caste who usually support the BJP or JD(U) — is facing the dilemma of choosing between Chandeshwar or an Independent or former MP Arun Kumar fielded by the BSP in Jehanabad.
Sitting in his small shop, Pintu told ThePrint: “Why did Nitish repeat Chandeshwar when protests are happening everywhere against the JD(U) candidate? Now two upper caste candidates, Arun Kumar and Independent Bhumihar candidate Ashutosh, will cut votes of Chandeshwar and make the fight easy for the RJD. We want to vote for Arun Kumar who is one of the best candidates and accessible too. But we will decide on the last day after seeing the mahaul (political atmosphere).”
Significantly, the Kushwahas seem reluctant to back the JD(U) despite Upendra Kushwaha being part of the NDA and Bihar BJP president and deputy CM Samrat Choudhary also belonging to the caste.
BJP and JD(U) leaders believe that people who are angry with the JD(U) candidate will ultimately vote for the NDA only, and Arun Kumar will get votes from the Dalits (BSP votebase) which will damage the RJD and help the JD(U) in Jehanabad.
Challenge in front of Nitish
Last week, CM Nitish spoke at poll rallies in Kishanganj, Araria, Madhepura and Purnia, where the Muslim population is a deciding factor, and cautioned voters about RJD rule.
“Before 2005, clashes used to take place between the Hindus and Muslims. These people used to ignite the clashes between Hindus and Muslims. When I came (as CM in 2005), I ended these clashes and if you forget me and defeat me, you will face the same clashes. Keep this in mind,” he warned.
Nitish, during his long stint in Bihar, used to draw a sizeable number of votes from Muslims despite his alliance with the BJP and despite RJD chief and former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad’s Muslim-Yadav poll arithmetic.
Nitish was also able to win seats in minority-dominated areas with help from the OBCs and EBCs and BJP’s upper caste votebase, but now, with the apparent decline in his traditional support base, the Muslim votebank, too, is wondering whether they should waste their vote on Nitish or go with Tejashwi.
Shafiq Rahman from Jahanabad district told ThePrint: “We used to vote for Nitish as he has a secular image and doesn’t have a communal agenda. He worked for every section of people but Nitish ka time khatam ho raha hai (Nitish’s time is over). Even his backward caste supporters might vote for the BJP as the party is in ascendance. We have to think about voting for Nitish.”
The challenge before the CM is not just to hold the Muslim votebank but also retain the EBCs, which are estimated to make up more than 33 percent of the electorate across Bihar.
The Kurmis are still believed to be with Nitish but the Kushwahas, who are estimated to form 8-10 percent of the backward population in Bihar, do not seem enthusiastic about the JD(U).
Holding roadshows and writing letters to voters, Nitish is thus igniting jungle raj memories to enthuse voters about his party before the third round of voting on 7 May, when three JD(U) candidates are contesting. Jhanjharpur, Supaul, Araria, Madhepura and Khagaria are set to go to the polls.
In an open letter to voters on the lines of those by Modi, the JD(U) chief reminded them about the situation in Bihar during RJD rule and the development work done by the JD(U) in the last 20 years, from law and order to empowering women, making reservations in local bodies and facilitating employment.
In Khagaria, where LJP (Ram Vilas)’ Rajesh Verma is contesting from the NDA side, Nitish attacked Lalu’s family for promoting kin in politics.
“For me, the entire Bihar is family, but a few people only see their son and daughter as their family. There is no family in the JD(U) and BJP. Have you seen any of Narendra Modi’s family members in politics?” he asked.
BJP’s Bihar spokesperson Prem Ranjan Patel defended Nitish’s apparent declining popularity. “In every election, people become complacent due to several factors. If the candidate is not good, voters express anger initially but in the end they will vote for the NDA only. People realise the danger of bringing the Lalu family back in power. This election is to elect the PM, so naturally Modi is leading the campaign,” said Patel.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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