The constituency is currently held by the BJP, which has fielded Sita Soren, daughter-in-law of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) chief Shibu Soren, from the seat. The JMM is ruling the state in alliance with the Congress and the two parties are also part of the national-level INDIA bloc, which has pitched seven-time MLA Nalin Soren against Sita.
Winning Dumka has apparently become a matter of prestige for both the BJP and JMM, and the two parties have neither spared strength nor resources in their poll campaigns.
At least 30 noted leaders from the BJP, JMM and Congress have been continuously visiting Santhal Pargana. These include Chief Minister Champai Soren, state minister Mithilesh Thakur, former CM Babulal Marandi, tribal affairs minister Arjun Munda, and several MPs and MLAs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tuesday addressed a rally in Dumka, further turning up the heat on the JMM-Congress combine. Tala Marandi and Nishikant Dubey, BJP candidates from Rajmahal and Godda constituencies, respectively, were present at the event.
Addressing the crowds, the PM highlighted “rampant corruption” in the state under JMM-Congress rule. “The JMM and Congress are looting Jharkhand from all sides. Look around you… (there are) beautiful mountains, but Jharkhand is now infamous for its mountains of currency notes. Crores of rupees are being seized. Where is this money coming from?” he asked.
He asserted that action against the corrupt will increase after 4 June, when the Lok Sabha poll results will be declared.
Modi further raised the issue of “infiltrators in Santhal Pargana region” and alleged that the JMM-Congress government was nurturing such people. “Our tribal daughters are being targeted by infiltrators. We must act to protect them and their future,” he said.
On the same day, JMM general secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya told reporters in Dumka that “Modi ji knows what is going to happen on June 4”.
“Power is about to slip from their hands. The fear of this has started troubling them,” he said.
Last Friday, Union Home Minister Amit Shah too held a meeting in Jamtara, part of Santhal Pargana region, alleging that there was “competition over corruption” between the JMM and Congress in Jharkhand.
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Do-or-die for JMM
The Dumka Lok Sabha seat is one of 14 parliamentary constituencies in Jharkhand and is reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates. It is part of the Santhal Pargana region, which has 18 assembly seats and is believed to be crucial for political power in Jharkhand.
For the JMM, the Dumka poll is a matter of prestige as the seat has previously been held by Shibu Soren eight times. After the formation of the JMM in 1972, Shibu Soren had made Dumka his base of operations. He has been CM of Jharkhand three times.
Now 80, Shibu Soren is not in the fray this election owing to his age and health issues, while the BJP has fielded Sita, the wife of his late son, who switched from the JMM to BJP in March this year. The elections also come for the JMM at a critical time — following the arrest of former CM Hemant Soren, one of Shibu’s sons, in January.
The JMM’s campaign in Dumka is being helmed by Shibu’s younger son Basant Soren and veteran leader Stephen Marandi.
Speaking to ThePrint, political analyst Rajat Kumar Gupta said: “This time, the election in Dumka is different in many ways. It can be seen as a power struggle in Jharkhand. After Shibu Soren, Hemant Soren also emerged as a strong leader in this area. In the 2019 assembly elections, Hemant came to power by performing strongly in the Santhal Pargana and Kolhan regions. That is why the BJP has an eye on this place.”
While Shibu hasn’t held any rally or election meeting this poll season, assisting in the JMM campaign is Hemant Soren’s wife Kalpana who, as a star campaigner, is believed to be working smartly and strategically to turn the tide in the party’s favour.
Nalin Soren, 76, the INDIA bloc candidate, is said to be a confidant of Shibu.
“Even if Modi holds a rally here every day, it won’t leave any impact in their (BJP’s) favour. Here, there is only Guru ji‘s (Shibu Soren) name. It is only because of Guru ji‘s blessings that I am getting so much courage and am reaching out to workers and supporters everywhere. I am sure the Dumka seat will go back to Guru ji,” he told ThePrint.
Basant Soren, younger son of Shibu Soren and minister in Champai Soren’s Government too spoke on similar lines. “The JMM cadre is not under any pressure from Modi’s rally. Guru ji‘s message is embedded in the minds of the cadre and supporters. There is only one slogan here – ‘Veer Dishom Guru Shibu Soren Zindabad (long live Shibu Soren). We will fight and win,” he said.
‘Dishom Guru’ is a Santali term meaning “guru of the country (desh)”. It has been given to Shibu Soren for his leadership and pivotal role in the movement against the Mahajani system of money lenders and the broader movement for a separate Jharkhand.
Devisan Besra, a JMM cadre in Mihijam in Dumka constituency, said: “Guru ji‘s message has come. We are focused on the villages and panchayats. We have been asked to be vigilant so that not even a single vote of JMM is lost. We don’t have time to know what is happening in other areas. Every worker is putting in all his effort.”
JMM cadres in Gopalpur village of Dumka also said that the party’s supporters and tribals had taken this election as a challenge.
Litmus test for Sita Soren
The BJP’s first victory in Dumka Lok Sabha constituency was in 1998, when Babulal Marandi defeated Shibu Soren. It was the Vajpayee-Advani era in the party.
In 1999 again, Babulal Marandi defeated Shibu Soren’s wife Rupi Soren. Following that, Shibu Soren defeated the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls of 2004, 2009 and 2014.
However, in 2014, with the rise of Narendra Modi, the influence of the BJP started increasing in the constituency again.
In the 2014 elections, Shibu Soren had defeated BJP’s Sunil Soren by a margin of 39,000 votes and got 37.19 percent vote share. But in the 2019 elections, Sunil defeated Shibu Soren by around 47,000 votes, getting 47.26 percent vote share. This poll season, speculation is rife in Jharkhand’s political circles about Sita Soren’s prospects.
Ever since she joined the BJP, the party’s state unit has directed all its resources to Dumka, with more than a dozen noted leaders of the BJP supporting Sita in election meetings.
Sita, MLA from Jama, is herself confident of victory and has often said she was “not given justice” while she was in the JMM and the Soren family.
BJP legislature party leader Amar Kumar Bauri is camping in Santhal Pargana these days.
“Sita Soren is a grassroots-leader and a strong leader. She was not given a proper place in the Soren family. Now she is a part of the huge Modi family. Dumka was our winning seat and will remain so in the future. PM Modi’s rally has boosted the enthusiasm of the workers and BJP voters,” he told ThePrint. Bauri claimed that the ‘countdown’ has started for the JMM-Congress government in Jharkhand.
The JMM has, however, slammed Sita. At a press conference in Jamtara Monday, party leader and state minister Mithilesh Thakur termed her an “opportunist”.
“After losing the Lok Sabha elections, she will return to her family and the JMM,” he said.
The Dumka factor
Assembly elections are due in Jharkhand later this year and thus the Lok Sabha elections have become crucial for all players. Dumka Lok Sabha seat has six assembly constituencies — Sikaripara, Dumka, Nala, Jama, Jamtara and Sarath. Until Sita’s exit, four of these, including Dumka, were held by the JMM, one by the BJP and one by the Congress.
In 2019, Hemant Soren won elections from Barhet assembly seat along with Dumka assembly constituency. In Dumka, he defeated Dr Lois Marandi, a minister Raghubar Das-led BJP government in Jharkhand. Hemant had won the seat in 2009 as well.
Later, Hemant Soren vacated the Dumka seat and the JMM fielded his younger brother Basant Soren in the by-poll that followed. Basant Soren too defeated Dr Lois Marandi.
In the 2014 assembly election, Lois Marandi had defeated Hemant from Dumka. JMM MLA from Maheshpur, Stephen Marandi, has also won from this seat once in 2005 as an Independent.
In the absence of Shibu and Hemant Soren, Kalpana Soren is keeping a close eye on the Dumka seat. In the last five days, she has held eight public meetings at different places in the constituency.
However, on the day of Modi’s rally in Dumka, she shifted to Rajmahal parliamentary constituency while Nalin Soren was involved in election activities throughout the day in Palojori, about 50 km from Dumka. According to JMM sources, this was part of their strategy.
The way Kalpana keeps the crowd engaged in her speeches in tribal areas seems to be infusing enthusiasm in the JMM cadre. She has been organising chaupals in villages as well.
“This time people are contesting elections in our favour in entire Santhal Pargana region. The BJP has realised this. This is why all BJP leaders are nervous and trying to register their presence in this area. No matter how much effort BJP people put in, tribal community is conscious and sensitive and is not going to come to their side,” she told ThePrint.
On the evening of 29 May, while addressing a meeting at in Gando village of Dumka block, she challenged the BJP and the central government. “Jharkhand will not bow down, India bloc will not stop. JMM’s arrow and bow are the honor and self-respect of both Dumka and Dishom Guru Shibu Soren,” she said.
Kalpana has so far addressed over 150 election meetings in the Gandey by-elections and in support of the candidates of JMM and India bloc in the Lok Sabha elections.
Chief Minister Champai Soren has also been campaigning in Dumka, Rajmahal and Godda parliamentary constituencies. On Sunday, while addressing an election meeting in Malwa village of Jamtara assembly constituency, he claimed that the BJP was sure to be ousted from the Centre this Lok Sabha election.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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