New Delhi: When Pakistan’s team was on the brink of elimination from the 2022 Men’s T20 World Cup following two losses to India and Zimbabwe, its fans rallied for a turnaround by turning three simple words — ‘Qudrat ka Nizam’, meaning nature will take its course — into an online meme.
The phrase went viral since Pakistan’s chances of qualifying for the semifinals were no longer within their control. They needed the Netherlands to pull off a memorable upset against South Africa, which they did. Pakistan made it to the finals that year, but lost to England.
Now, 12 months on, Pakistan’s qualification equation is strikingly similar in the ongoing Men’s ODI World Cup 2023. Following a losing streak, the team sits in fifth place — tied on eight points with fourth-placed New Zealand and sixth-placed Afghanistan, with one match to go.
With India, South Africa and Australia having already booked their semi-final spots, ThePrint takes a look at the qualification scenarios for New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The key matches that complete the round robin include New Zealand taking on Sri Lanka at Bengaluru’s M. Chinnaswamy Stadium Thursday; Afghanistan versus South Africa at Ahmedabad’s Narendra Modi Stadium Friday; and Pakistan facing England at Kolkata’s Eden Gardens Saturday.
The bottom four — Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Netherlands and England — have all been eliminated from semifinal contention. But they have more than just pride to play for, as the top seven round robin teams, other than Pakistan (to be the host), will qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy.
For the current fourth-placed New Zealand, the task is clear — beat an out of sorts Sri Lanka team, grappling with injuries and off-field politics, on the Chinnaswamy Stadium surface, which is expected to be batting friendly.
Also read: ‘Greatest ODI innings’: Glen Maxwell is toast of cricket after stunning World Cup double ton
Weather conditions, injuries
But the weather forecast may complicate things, just as it did for New Zealand when rains led to a DLS defeat against Pakistan on the same ground this past weekend. With the state of Karnataka declaring a yellow alert — which denotes bad weather conditions with the probability of it becoming worse — through to Thursday, there may be reduced number of overs and DLS rules impacting the game.
Moreover, as the defeat to Pakistan showed, New Zealand have significant injury problems of their own in the pace bowling department, with Lockie Ferguson being only sporadically available and Matt Henry being replaced by Kyle Jamieson after he suffered a hamstring injury during the team’s match with South Africa last week, which it lost.
New Zealand’s worst-case scenario would be a defeat, and a “no result” with a change of points being shared. Either of these eventualities would mean New Zealand would have to rely on both Pakistan and Afghanistan to lose their respective matches, thereby qualifying on their superior Net Run Rate (NRR) of +0.398.
For Pakistan, the Qudrat ka Nizam memes returned on social media after opener Fakhar Zaman’s blitz against a beleaguered Kiwi bowling attack, and intensified after Glenn Maxwell single-handedly led Australia to a comeback victory for the ages over Afghanistan.
The Qudrat ka Nizam memes will likely do the rounds if New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka or if a washout occurs, and if Pakistan beat England on a tricky wicket at Eden Gardens. If New Zealand win, Pakistan would need to not only defeat England but win handsomely due to their inferior NRR of +0.036.
At an NRR of -0.338, Hashmatullah Shahidi’s Afghanistan team missed a golden opportunity to reach 10 points and boost their NRR by defeating Australia, having reduced them to 91-7 with 201 more runs left to chase. But Glenn Maxwell capitalised on dropped catches and passive bowling tactics to record one of the greatest knocks in men’s ODI history.
As a result, the Afghanistan team will rely on both New Zealand and Pakistan failing to win their matches and will need to win against South Africa Friday at all costs. If even one of the two teams above them reaches 10 points, Shahidi’s side will need to conjure up one of the biggest thrashings in tournament history in the world’s largest cricket stadium by crowd capacity.
Also read: Spinners or pacers—Who are winning the 2023 World Cup?