Ranking The NFL’s Worst-To-First Contenders

At the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans shocked the NFL world.

Moments after landing C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick—which they earned after going 3-13-1 the year prior—their new regime offloaded two first-round selections, a second-round choice, and a third-round pick to nab edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3 overall.

Many thought the Arizona Cardinals would wind up with two top-five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft as a result of the trade. Those people couldn’t have been more wrong.

Instead of continuing to flounder in the basement of the AFC South, the Texans rose from the ashes and claimed the division crown (with an assist from the Jacksonville Jaguars’ massive collapse). With Houston’s triumph, the league has now seen at least one team go from worst to first in their division in 19 of 21 seasons since the expansion to 32 teams in 2002.

History may not always repeat itself, but the odds of one franchise following in the Texans’ footsteps in 2024 are pretty high. Who is the most logical candidate to do so? How do they stack up against one another? GIVEMESPORT has each of the eight possibilities covered below.

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AFC North – 9-8 in 2023

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and company, with good reason, are the runaway favorites to pull off the worst-to-first rise in 2024. They finished above .500 in 2023 despite Burrow’s injury woes costing him seven games and hampering him when healthy. Doing so in a division that fielded three AFC playoff participants, including the No. 1 overall seed, was mighty impressive.

Why They Can Win The Division

For starters, Burrow is finally healthy again. He’s also entering the year with something to prove, giving him extra motivation on top of his already high standards. Tee Higgins remains on the team while going through a lower-profile version of Brandon Aiyuk’s situation, and could potentially be traded before the season begins, but feels locked in for the upcoming campaign.

The Bengals also expanded their offense after losing offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. New OC Dan Pitcher—previously Cincy’s quarterbacks coach—is implementing more personnel groupings, which will make game planning more difficult for opposing defenses and give Burrow additional countermeasures.

With a consistent role for the first time since 2021, tight end Mike Gesicki could give Cincinnati a between-the-hashes threat they’ve lacked since Tyler Eifert roamed the jungle.

On the defensive side, the Bengals almost have nowhere to go but up. In 2023, they ranked bottom-five in nearly every analytical capacity and yielded explosive plays more frequently than every other franchise. According to ESPN Stats & Information, their 65 completions allowed of 20+ yards were tied for second most in the NFL.

Cincinnati let safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III walk in free agency last year; they re-invested in the position this offseason, bringing back Bell and adding Geno Stone. That renewed commitment should pay massive dividends as young players Dax Hill, Jordan Battle and Cam Taylor-Britt continue to grow.

Because they slotted fourth in the standings last season, Cincinnati also gets the benefit of a fourth-place schedule in 2024. While their rivals must face some of the league’s higher-end competition, the Bengals battle six of the other seven teams on this list (the Cardinals are the lone exception). Even though they had the same divisional placement, they’re a level above those other bottom-dwellers.

Both times Burrow has played an entire season, Cincinnati reached the AFC Championship. All the above factors have rightfully stuffed the Queen City full of optimism once again.

Why They Won’t Win The Division

In 2023, the Bengals went 1-5 against their divisional foes. Their only win came versus the Cleveland Browns, who were resting for the postseason, in Week 18. Burrow missed both meetings with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the second half of Cincy’s second loss to the Baltimore Ravens, giving fans a sense this poor record won’t occur a second time.

However, the AFC North is the toughest division in the NFL. None of the aforementioned squads fluked their way into the postseason. The Ravens, due to immense personnel losses, are the only team you can safely project some regression from. Will that, and Cincinnati’s improvements, be enough to overcome not only the four-game edge Baltimore held in 2023, but the margins Cleveland and Pittsburgh carried as well?

Burrow also has a history of getting injured in training camp. Just because he’s healthy going into mid-July doesn’t mean he’ll be healthy coming out. The Bengals’ replacements for CB Chidobe Awuzie, DT D.J. Reader—second-year pro D.J. Turner and veteran journeyman Sheldon Rankins—could also prove to be liabilities more than assets, which would offset the modified safety duo’s contributions.

All things considered, Cincinnati is in the best position of any last-place team to claim their divisional throne in 2024. But you can’t write anything in pen in the NFL, particularly in the AFC North.

AFC South – 6-11 in 2023

The AFC South has seen someone go worst-to-first and win a playoff game in each of the past two seasons, as the Jacksonville Jaguars preceded the Texans by doing so in 2022. The Titans captured the crown in 2020 and 2021; can they reassert themselves atop the standings and make it three consecutive years of basement-to-ceiling in 2024?

Why They Can Win The Division

Everyone knows the AFC is loaded; half of the NFC resides in the bottom 12 of BetMGM’s Super Bowl 59 odds, demonstrating how deep things are on the other side of the coin.

The AFC South’s aforementioned rapid shifts make it the lone division in the conference without a consistent playoff presence. Year-to-year, for one reason or another, the teams in this division have simply faltered under the weight of high expectations.

Tennessee has drastically changed its focus this offseason, going from the defense-oriented Mike Vrabel to the offensive-minded Brian Callahan. The Titans’ massive overhaul on offense was highlighted by the signings of Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley, but the most impactful additions came along the line, where they lured center Lloyd Cushenberry III to town and plucked mountainous tackle JC Latham at No. 7 overall in the draft.

Renowned OL coach Bill Callahan may not turn the group into an above-average unit, but it definitely won’t rank dead last in Pro Football Focus’ rankings for a second consecutive year.

Defensively, Tennessee shored up its secondary through free agency, landing a pair of proven corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie and a three-time All-Pro at safety in Jamal Adams. Both corners have proven to be No. 1 options at their best, and can lock up opposing wideouts for new coordinator Dennard Wilson.

General manager Ran Carthon has built a tremendous cocoon around second-year quarterback Will Levis. The Titans don’t need Levis to put the team on his back and single-handedly lead them to the promised land, but rather function as a game manager who hits some deep passes.

Tennessee’s schedule also lays out favorably. They have an early bye (Week 5) that will allow them to acclimate to their new systems without risking a loss, and play five of their six divisional games in the final seven weeks of the season. If they start slow, they can quickly make up ground in the final month-plus, just as the Jags and Texans did the past two years to punch their postseason tickets.

The path is there for the Titans to shock the industry and host a playoff game. It may take a good bit of luck to help them navigate it, but it’s more than plausible they find a way to do so.

Why They Won’t Win The Division

Time may be the variable determining Tennessee’s fate more than any other in 2024. How soon can the offensive line jell and find better form? How long will it take Levis to grasp Callahan’s scheme and be trusted with the keys to the car? How quickly will the chemistry between him and his receivers develop? They may build too big a hill to climb if any one aspect comes along slowly.

Houston’s expected emergence as a true Super Bowl contender would also dampen the Titans’ chances. Jacksonville was 8-3 last season before collapsing down the stretch, in part due to injury. The Indianapolis Colts, like the Jaguars, nearly snared a Wild Card spot after missing out on the division title. Jumping three playoff contenders from the prior season at once is no easy task.

Levis, at best, slots third—and is likely fourth—in the pecking order of quarterbacks in the AFC South. That may change in time. But as we can’t guarantee the Bengals will perform better against their divisional opponents, it’d be irresponsible to say Levis will catapult himself above Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, or Anthony Richardson and into another QB tier.

The lack of an established contender in their division gives the Titans a leg up on the remaining last place teams looking to make the leap from worst to first. There may be a higher number of quality competitors to outlast, but it’s easier to beat three potential mid-level squads than one elite bunch.

AFC West – 5-12 in 2023

Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is the last worst-to-first option who only has to overcome one Super Bowl contender to win their division. That in itself makes them the default choice for third place on this list, even if the franchise they’d have to surpass is embarking on a historic quest in 2024.

Why They Can Win The Division

The AFC West has cowered and bowed to the Kansas City Chiefs for the past eight years, allowing Andy Reid to function as the second coming of Bill Belichick once he got his hands on Patrick Mahomes.

If any man won’t just sit back and let the Chiefs manhandle his team however they please, it’s Jim Harbaugh. He has won at a high level throughout his career no matter where he has been, giving the Bolts a hope they’ve lacked since the back half of the 2000s.

The 2024 Chargers are going to be a “punch you in the mouth” club that is more reliant on the rushing attack than any of Justin Herbert’s previous offenses have been. Most of the weapons Los Angeles added weren’t on the boundary, but up front, which should allow them to be more effective running the ball than in years past and make the unit better as a whole.

Defensively, the Chargers boast three impressive edge rushers—Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Bud Dupree—a solid safety tandem in Alohi Gilman and Derwin James Jr., and a top-flight corner in Asante Samuel Jr. The offense’s ball-control approach should keep the unit fresher throughout the season, hopefully minimizing injury risk for a unit that has struggled in that respect.

In 2024, Los Angeles will be able to get pressure from the outside on Mahomes and control the pace of play when matching up with Kansas City. There’s no easy or set recipe for defeating the Chiefs, but doing those two things gives them a much better chance than going shot-for-shot.

The Chargers should bounce over the Raiders and Denver Broncos with relative ease; if they can beat the Chiefs—easier said than done—they shape up as a division winner.

Why They Won’t Win The Division

These are still the Chargers we’re talking about, aren’t they? When everything seems to finally be trending in their favor, they find a way to mess it up. After all, this is the same franchise who managed to miss the playoffs entirely despite boasting the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense (in yards for/allowed) in 2010.

Perhaps Harbaugh is the coach to break whatever curse (or karma from some of team ownership’s past actions) seems to be constantly floating over the franchise.

If that happens to be the case, Los Angeles still has to circumvent Kansas City’s reign, and the back-to-back Super Bowl champions are almost assuredly going to be better in 2024 than they were in 2023. If teams better than the Chargers couldn’t eliminate the Chiefs at their worst a year ago, how will anyone do so when Reid and Mahomes have rebounded this season?

There are fewer factors standing in the way of Los Angeles’ run to a division crown than every other fourth-place team. Those that do exist, though, are of high difficulty. Nobody will truly believe they can traverse this gauntlet—and instead will farm for clicks with those takes—until they do.

NFC North – 7-10 in 2023

Everyone’s favorite worst-to-first contender has almost unparalleled hype for a team sliding the No. 1 overall pick into their starting lineup. When you went 7-10 the year before and add a prospect labeled as “generational” to the fold, that’s bound to happen. However, the external variables surrounding the Bears make their chances a bit more precarious than one would think.

Why They Can Win The Division

Chicago tumbled through the opening half of the 2023 campaign, starting 2-7 before picking up a Thursday Night Football win against the Carolina Panthers.

That kicked off a 5-3 finish to the season that saw them blow a 12-point lead in the final 4:15 of a loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 11 and a 10-point fourth-quarter edge in another loss to the Browns in Week 13 (featuring a dropped Hail Mary that would have given them the victory). Had they won those affairs, they may well have made the playoffs last year.

Once they added pass-rusher Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, the Bears defense became a formidable unit. They allowed 20 points or fewer in each of their final six contests. The secondary, featuring Jaylon Johnson, Jaquan Brisker, and free agent signee Kevin Byard, will be able to succeed more frequently against the pass and improve from the 18th-place EPA/Pass ranking they held in 2023.

On offense, Caleb Williams is expected to give unparalleled life to the Bears’ own aerial assault. His loaded weapons cache of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift should cause problems for defenses and give him various outlets that weren’t available for his predecessor.

After coming so close a season ago and improving on both sides of the ball this offseason, Chicago is bursting at the seams with excitement about what’s to come in 2024. They should be in contention for a postseason bid once again, but can they find their way to the top in the NFC North?

Why They Won’t Win The Division

The Bears weren’t the only NFC North team to improve over the past couple of months. The Green Bay Packers skipped over what was anticipated to be a rebuilding year and nearly made the NFC Championship game, while the Lions actually made the season’s penultimate contest and would have played for the Lombardi Trophy if they didn’t cough up their own 17-point halftime advantage.

Green Bay’s new defensive scheme should give their front seven more opportunities to create havoc than it could in 2023. Their offense, full of rookies and second-year players, is expected to be a finely-tuned machine that befuddles defenses through mixed personnel groupings. The Lions have added cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold to address their biggest positional weakness and buttress their top-five rush defense.

Elsewhere, the Minnesota Vikings don’t shape up as a postseason contender following the loss of Kirk Cousins, but resemble Chicago’s recent squads. They are more than capable of winning games and exceeding their lower-end expectations with their own rookie quarterback.

The NFC North could end up being the second-toughest division in the league this season. When you’re in such a brutal grouping, it can be hard to emerge from the fray. The Bears finding themselves in a situation akin to the 2023 Steelers or Bengals feels more likely than them actually snatching the division title from their rivals.

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NFC South – 2-15 in 2023

Talk about colossal organizational failure, eh? The Panthers risked it all to snag Bryce Young with the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, promptly won five fewer games than they did in 2022, and looked completely lost in the process. Yet here they sit, at No. 5, above three other franchises on this worst-to-first rankings. Don’t worry, we’ll make it make sense.

Why They Can Win The Division

They may have overpaid to do it, but Carolina drastically improved its interior offensive line in free agency. Guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis should keep the front of Young’s pocket much cleaner than it ever was in 2023 and give the team’s running backs more room to operate.

Speaking of running backs, the Panthers scooped up the draft’s most talented rusher, Jonathon Brooks, in round two of the draft. After having only Adam Thielen to rely upon as a rookie, Young now has first-round pick Xavier Legette and trade acquisition Diontae Johnson on the boundary. Athletic rookie tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders will step in as a seam-stretcher in place of or alongside Tommy Tremble.

On the defensive side, Carolina was fairly stout last season, ranking sixth in yards per play allowed (4.9). They were 32nd in sacks (27) and takeaways (11), though; the offense’s immense struggles were too much for them to endure.

The Panthers rolled with a quantity over quality approach in free agency, trading Brian Burns but inking Jadeveon Clowney, A’Shawn Robinson, Josey Jewell, and D.J. Wonnum for essentially the same per-year cost as Burns’ subsequent extension, per Spotrac.

In 2022, nobody in the NFC South finished with a winning record. Last season, the division’s top two teams won only nine games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints are solid, but unspectacular.

The Atlanta Falcons may meet their high expectations, but things truly being different with Arthur Smith out of the picture isn’t guaranteed. A positive swing of that nature from Carolina would be almost unparalleled. In this longtime mediocre division (save the three-year vacation Tom Brady took in Tamp), anything feels possible.

Why They Won’t Win The Division

Young, with real weapons and new head coach Dave Canales’ modern offense, should resemble the player he was at Alabama more than the floundering rookie that took the field last season.

But there is still a pretty big gulf between the Panthers and the other teams in the division, who all feature Pro Bowl quarterbacks making over $30 million per year.

The tier drop from the Bears to the bottom half of this list is heavy, as these teams owned the four worst records in the league and look to be another year, at minimum, away from playoff contention.

But the possibility of Carolina winning the NFC South, because of its overall weakness, slightly tops the chances of each remaining squad claiming first place in their respective divisions, even if it seems more improbable.

NFC East – 4-13 in 2023

After giving those in place when he bought the team an opportunity to prove themselves last year, new Commanders’ owner Josh Harris hit the reset button. Washington’s front office, coaching staff, and roster have experienced a dramatic face-lift, and have set the fate of the franchise on No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels’ shoulders.

Why They’ll Win The Division

While drastic changes in the nation’s capital have transpired, their new ingredients could come together very quickly. Daniels is the perfect quarterback for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme, and has a proven playmaker on the outside in Terry McLaurin.

Zach Ertz is a safety-valve/chain-mover, and Brian Robinson Jr. is one of the NFL’s most underrated running backs. He possesses true three-down potential, though will likely cede passing work to Austin Ekeler and create a dynamic duo behind Daniels in the backfield.

Defensively, Washington was doomed by the league’s worst pass defense. Head coach Dan Quinn and new defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. won’t leave their cornerbacks alone on man coverage islands nearly as often as Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio did, which will pay immediate dividends.

The Commanders boast great talent on the defensive line in Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne, and second-round pick Jer’Zahn Newton. When the secondary improves—it genuinely cannot get worse—these dominant trench defenders can create more splash plays than they could a season ago. With both sides of the ball feasting after the renovations, their immediate rise will be fun to watch.

Why They Won’t Win The Division

Asking the offense and defense, with so many new parts, to immediately click is simply unfair. The Commanders’ schedule also sets them up for failure, as they go on the road in four out of six weeks to open the season and don’t go on bye until Week 14. If/when they struggle to integrate all their new pieces in the early going, they won’t have a “free” opportunity to rectify their issues, like the Titans and others do.

The New York Giants are on equal footing with Washington, and the Dallas Cowboys feel primed for a slide, but the Philadelphia Eagles have, on paper, locked in and reloaded following their epic collapse down the 2023 stretch run. The Cowboys also won’t be a slouch if they do get worse, further hampering their chances.

To make matters even more difficult, the NFC East battles the AFC North this year. Every team in that division is more firmly established than the Commanders, and they will likely enter as underdogs for all four of those contests.

The limited chances to pick off non-divisional teams and pad their record isn’t the biggest obstacle to overcome, but may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back when all of the others are considered.

NFC West – 4-13 in 2023

The Cardinals displayed valiant effort under first-year coach Jonathan Gannon for the duration of the 2023 campaign; they nearly started 3-0 without Kyler Murray. Once their franchise quarterback returned from his torn ACL, they defeated both of Pennsylvania’s playoff participants on the road in the season’s latter stages.

Why They Can Win The Division

Unlike every team on this list except the Bengals, Arizona is confident their quarterback can play at a high level and take them to the playoffs. Public opinion of Murray may have soured some in recent years, but he’s still one of the NFL’s biggest dual-threat options and can provide points on any snap.

With Murray fully healthy, the Cardinals’ offense could be special in 2024. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride can stretch the field and create passing lanes in scramble drill situations when necessary, while running backs James Conner and Trey Benson both offer receiving ability and can handle the rigors of a heavy rushing workload. Michael Wilson and Zay Jones are solid depth weapons with upside.

Arizona went 3-5 when Murray played in 2023. If he can return to full form with a vengeance and contend for MVP while Gannon’s defense builds chemistry throughout year two, the Cardinals could be frisky enough to take the division crown with a bit of luck.

Why They Won’t Win The Division

Is the San Francisco 49ers’ and Los Angeles Rams’ existence enough of a reason? Until proven otherwise, the 49ers will be considered the class of the NFC West, with the Rams nipping at their heels following their surprising postseason run.

Both San Francisco and Los Angeles have Super Bowl-participating quarterbacks at the helm, an established culture of winning and deeper rosters than Arizona. The Seattle Seahawks almost fought their way into the playoffs a season ago and retained most of their roster’s core players after their coaching change.

They may not project as a winning club in Mike Macdonald’s first year, but they won’t be an easy out for anyone by any means.

The Cardinals should be a fun and competitive team in 2024. But with the defense still needing some bigger pieces to fully come together, they seem to be a season out from being able to truly make noise again.

AFC East – 4-13 in 2023

It’s a new day in Foxborough, as Bill Belichick no longer has his paws on every single aspect of the Patriots’ operation. His overarching methods remain intact, but a fresh voice could do wonders as the organization aims to move out of Tom Brady’s towering shadow.

Why They Can Win The Division

New England’s defense was a tough nut to crack on the ground in 2023, ranking first in EPA/Rush and second in Explosive Rush Rate. They were less stellar against the pass (23rd in EPA/Pass, 18th in Explosive Pass Rate), but not awful in any form of the word. Their offense, however, was a different story, scoring over 21 points in just two of their 17 games (Week 7 and Week 16).

Jacoby Brissett is a superior option to Mac Jones. He knows how to orchestrate an offense and stay ahead of the chains, something he can rely on Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry—as well as Juju Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne—to do early in the season.

For the Patriots to make headway against their AFC East brethren and jump into first place, Drake Maye will have to take over the starting job. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins both experienced big personnel changes, and Aaron Rodgers is coming off an Achilles tear entering his age-40 season. Brissett’s floor can keep them competitive, but only Maye’s ceiling can take them to the next level.

Why They Won’t Win The Division

Buffalo and Miami didn’t take significant enough steps back to really open the door for New England. Barring injury, they’ll be second-tier contenders at worst.

The Jets, meanwhile, have a QB upgrade in Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor, a possible Hall of Fame left tackle in Tyron Smith, as well as high-quality defenders at every level of head coach Robert Saleh’s already-elite unit. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be worse than they were a year ago in 2024.

After running perhaps the most stale offense the league has ever seen and tying the Panthers for the fewest points scored (236) last season, new de facto general manager Eliot Wolf and Mayo are embarking on a true rebuild.

It doesn’t make sense to rush Maye, their rookie receivers, or any young talent onto the field when winning in the short-term isn’t the goal. As a result, the Patriots are the least likely of any NFL team to go worst-to-first in 2024.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.

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