Signs are emerging in recent polling that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates could pose trouble for Donald Trump now that President Biden isn’t at the top of the ticket.
For months, polling predicting a three-way race with Trump, Biden and Kennedy showed mixed signs in terms of which of the major-party candidates was hurt more by the independent’s presence. But often the Democratic candidate was the one losing more support.
But that has notably shifted since Vice President Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, with many polls showing her performing better when other candidates are included in the race.
“With the head-to-head of Biden-Trump, that head-to-head seemed to be pretty baked in, but the third party was a problem for the Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. “That no longer — if the data is to be believed, and it looks credible — seems to be the case.”
Kennedy added an additional layer of uncertainty to the presidential race when he launched his independent bid for president last October after having briefly run for the Democratic nomination against Biden.
A scion of the most famous family in American politics, Kennedy’s relative prominence distinguishes him from typical third-party candidates, such as those running on the Libertarian and Green tickets, who typically only receive no more than a couple percentage points in a normal election.
Even though Kennedy had for months been receiving no higher than low double digits in the polls at best, he was still performing considerably better than any other third-party candidate and spurring fears on both sides that he could act as a spoiler for either Trump or Biden.
Polls were split from survey to survey and state to state as to which candidate was hurt more with Kennedy in the race, but overall, Biden appeared to be at least slightly worse off.
The national average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill showed Trump in a slightly better position in a three-way race compared to just a race between him and Biden. As of July 21, the day Biden dropped out, Trump led by 3.3 points in a head-to-head race but by 4 points with Kennedy in consideration.
That dynamic has changed since Harris entered the race and has seen a surge in momentum in the polls. She has significantly narrowed the gap with Trump and in some cases taken a lead.
In the national average from DDHQ and The Hill, Trump is ahead by 0.2 points as of Friday, making the two of them basically tied. But Harris leads by about 3 points in the three-way contest, in which Kennedy averages just above 3 percent.
That is also the case for averages of most of the key battleground states.
Kennedy had been a bit of an unknown variable, as his political views have spanned the political spectrum. He has gained attention over his questioning of the efficacy of vaccines and has run on railing against censorship online, ideals that could speak to conservatives.
But he could also appeal to some disenchanted liberals because of his name and the fact that he’s environmental lawyer, though he has shifted rightward on the issue of climate change.
Strategists from both sides of the aisle said Kennedy, who is increasingly achieving ballot access in various states, may not ultimately factor much in determining the outcome despite the numbers. But they said the polls showing Trump performing worse with Kennedy may be more about Biden’s absence from the race than anything else.
Republican strategist Zachary Moyle said some of Kennedy’s support had come from Democrats who were upset with Biden being the nominee and wanted another candidate to be the choice. Now that someone else is in, some have come back to vote Democrat in November.
“The moment Democrats or Republicans appease that side, that third-party candidate then becomes a thorn in the other party’s side, and that’s exactly what you’re seeing in the polls now,” he said.
Multiple pollsters and states have shown Harris improving when more than two candidates are included.
Even some early polls taken soon after Biden dropped out and Harris became the likely Democratic nominee showed a change. One of the first national polls taken entirely after Biden dropped out had Harris up 2 points directly against Trump, but up 4 with Kennedy taking 8 percent.
An Emerson College/WHDH poll of New Hampshire, a state Republicans began to hope would be in play as Biden faltered, showed Harris only up 4 points late last month, still an improvement compared to Biden. But that lead grew to a more comfortable 7 points with third parties included.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday showed Harris leading among independents by 9 points just facing Trump, but the lead grows to 11 points in a six-way race.
A Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin released Wednesday showed Trump leading Harris by 1 point, 50 percent to 49 percent, but Harris taking the lead by 2 points in a multi-person race with Kennedy, Libertarian Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and others. Kennedy received 8 percent, while the other third parties received 1 percent or less.
“I think this race has changed from an anti-Trump race to a pro-Kamala race, and that’s a very important transition because the energy gap that existed before is largely erased,” said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle.
Polling has also shown an increase in Democratic engagement in the race, with greater numbers saying they plan to vote in November and expressing confidence that the Democratic ticket can win.
Still, some polls have indicated that Harris may perform worse in at least some cases with other candidates in the mix.
An AARP poll of Georgia found Trump and Harris tied in a head-to-head but the former president taking a 2-point lead with other candidates included. An Arizona poll taken right after Biden dropped out showed Trump’s lead expanding in the state with other candidates included.
Trump himself has shown some concern about the effect of Kennedy on the race. The two of them spoke by phone just as the GOP convention got underway last month in a call that was later leaked.
The former president appeared to hint at asking Kennedy to drop out and endorse him, saying: “I would love you to do so. And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re going to win.”
And Trump blasted podcaster Joe Rogan on Friday after the host praised Kennedy. Rogan later clarified he was not endorsing Kennedy but just voicing admiration for him.
Strategists said Biden stepping aside has given hesitant Democrats an alternative they were looking for, so they don’t need to look elsewhere in November.
“The power of Harris, that as bad as we perceived her to be as a vice president, as a candidate, she is far more acceptable to a lot of voters than Joe Biden,” said Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe.
Roe noted that Harris may still be susceptible to third-party protest votes going to a candidate like independent Cornel West, who is running to the Democrats’ left. He said voters who are particularly upset with Harris’s position on the Israel-Hamas war could turn to a candidate like West, but she may be able to bring them in by showing more openness to their position.
But some questioned how much Kennedy will factor into the race in November. Roe said Kennedy might “shave off” a couple points in a state or two but not affect the big picture of the race.
“I think people like Ralph Nader and Jill Stein posed more of a risk than he does today,” he said.
Smikle said he believed Kennedy had more potential to hurt Trump than Biden, but he doubts if Kennedy will be able to pull away possible Trump voters, given recent stories about him, including his admittance of leaving a dead bear in Central Park a decade ago.
“I don’t think [he] will make any significant impact on Trump’s vote anymore because of this troubling story, and I certainly don’t think it’s going to be an issue for Kamala Harris,” he said.