Scott Moe earned his second mandate as premier and his Saskatchewan Party held onto government for a fifth-straight majority, CTV News declared Monday night. But the party did not hold onto all its seats.
The Saskatchewan NDP is expected to pick up twice as many seats as it claimed in the 2020 election after gaining ground in Regina and Saskatoon.
Rural-urban divide in voters
The Saskatchewan Party dominated the rural vote as it has in past elections, but fell flat in the major cities.
“They did quite poorly in Saskatoon and Regina to the point where it doesn’t look like they’re going to have any MLAs from Regina and they might have one or two in Saskatoon,” said Daniel Westlake, a political studies professor at the University of Saskatchewan.
“That suggests the need for the party to think carefully about how it approaches the more urban parts of the province.”
Despite the results, Moe assured voters the province isn’t divided, during his victory speech.
“The Saskatchewan Party will be a government that works for all of the people of Saskatchewan,” Moe said.
“Regardless of who you voted for in this election, you did so because you wanted what was best for the province that we know, love and live in. And in this, I would say, each of us is united.”
Carla Beck’s NDP swept the 12 seats in Regina and all but two seats in Saskatoon. The Saskatchewan Party is leading in those two constituencies, but results were too close to call on election night and will be decided once mail-in ballots are counted.
“Great for the NDP compared to where they were in the last three elections. But that’s not where they need to be if they they’re going to compete for government,” Westlake said.
“They didn’t make any inroads outside of Saskatoon and Regina.”
New faces in cabinet
In order to make gains in the major cities, the NDP had to unseat several long-standing Sask. Party MLAs.
Five prominent cabinet ministers are expected to lose their seats including the attorney general, social services minister, environment minister, corrections minister, and the parks, culture and sports minister.
“We knew when we started this campaign that it was going to be a challenging campaign. Recent history has not been kind to incumbent majority governing parties,” Moe said.
The urban upsets mean the Saskatchewan Party will have to rely heavily on rural MLAs and new faces to front ministry portfolios.
“They’re not going to have anybody from Regina to put in cabinet,” Westlake said.
“That’s going to be a difficult thing for the Sask. Party moving forward.”
‘Run of dominance’ continues
Despite some challenges facing the Saskatchewan Party in its near future, early results suggest the party will walk away with more than half of the popular vote for the fifth consecutive election.
“That’s not something that happens in a lot of provinces,” Westlake said.
Westlake points to Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives. The party governed from 1971 to 2015, but never earned 50 per cent of the popular vote in five consecutive elections.
“A win is a win, and that continues a run of dominance for the party that is quite significant within Canadian politics,” Westlake said.