As Labor Day approaches, bringing the semi-official start of this completely unprecedented presidential election season, the vastly altered scene makes the outcomes of several heavily contested California congressional races even more important than usual.
The last four years have showed that even the narrowest of majorities in the House of Representatives can make huge differences on issues vitally important to millions of Americans. Six California districts also are almost always tightly contested, which now provide Republicans with the tiny margins they’ve lately enjoyed and exploited.
If the GOP also wins the presidency and the Senate this fall, though, fresh evidence will show how vital the House outcome can be. The stakes over the next two years may include votes on a national abortion ban, whether to get rid of no-fault divorce nationally and go back to finger-pointing and open scandal in divorce courts, and whether same-sex marriages continue to be legal.
A narrow majority for either party could also decide national policy on other vital issues, but those are among the most prominent. The same six California races remain key. All are taking place almost 3,000 miles from the U.S. Capitol, but their outcomes will have a huge bearing on what happens soon in that legendary structure.
California, says the often accurate and nonpartisan Cook Political Report, “is, along with New York, one of the two most important paths to potential Democratic control of the House.” If the Democrats win, they would be in position to harry a renewed Donald Trump presidency from its first day, when Trump has said he intends to be a dictator.
If they lose, Trump is likely to have a completely free hand to do whatever he likes, legal or not, under the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling. He could, for one example, send U.S. Army or Marine Corps units to enforce his wishes everywhere without serious dispute, disregarding the longtime American tradition that the military stays out of domestic quarrels.
Five of the six seats most likely to be decided by very thin margins this fall are now in Republican hands, contributing to the GOP’s current thin House majority.
In the 27th district around northern Los Angeles County’s Santa Clarita, incumbent Republican Mike Garcia has kept winning lately by puzzlingly large margins despite a Democratic registration advantage. This time, he faces Democrat George Whiteside, the former head of space tourism company Virgin Galactic. It’s rated a tossup.
In Orange County’s open 47th district, currently held by former U.S. Senate candidate Katie Porter, Democrat Dave Min, a state senator, faces 2022’s losing Republican Scott Baugh. This time Baugh could be a thin favorite, as Min’s DUI conviction of last spring hurts him.
In another hot Orange County race, incumbent Republican Michelle Steel seems likely to beat back Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, despite her ready approval of almost everything Trump does. After a heated Democratic primary last March, Tran still lacks needed name recognition.
In a 41st district rematch of their close 2022 race, longtime Republican incumbent Ken Calvert faces former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in a test of whether the large gay vote in Palm Springs will turn out in sufficient numbers to overcome Calvert’s advantage in other, more conservative parts of Riverside County.
Another rematch, in a Central Valley district taking in all of Merced County and much of Madera, Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties, pits Republican U.S. Rep. John Duarte, of Modesto, against Democrat Adam Gray, a former Assemblymember whose onetime legislative district forms almost a complete overlay of today’s contested turf. Duarte won in 2022 in the nation’s tightest race, decided by less than 600 votes.
Yet another rematch in parts of Kings, Tulrae and Kern counties pits former Democratic state legislator Rudy Salas against Republican Rep. David Valadao, who keeps fending off Salas, for whom the Latino vote has yet to turn out sufficiently to help. Will it this time?
Close races also threaten other incumbents like Democrats Mike Levin in northern San Diego County and Josh Harder, of Turlock. However, Republicans Young Kim, of Orange County, and Kevin Kiley, of Rocklin (near Sacramento), sometimes seeming threatened, will only lose in the unlikely event of a Democratic landslide. No one expects that.
Email Thomas Elias at [email protected], and read more of his columns online at californiafocus.net.
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