The Fed is slashing interest rates. Is it time to buy a home in the Bay Area?

The news many prospective homebuyers have been waiting for has finally arrived: the Federal Reserve is slashing interest rates.

Does that mean Bay Area house hunters should fire up Zillow in anticipation of scoring a deal on a mortgage? Not quite yet, local real estate experts say.

For the most part, lenders have already priced the rate cut into the mortgages they’re now offering.

“It’s not going to change a whole lot on the 30-year fixed rate,” said Oscar Wei, an economist with the California Association of Realtors.

On Wednesday, the central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point — an uncommonly steep cut — to about 4.9%. It was the first reduction in more than four years, a signal Fed officials are optimistic about the economy’s direction.

The Fed had been keeping rates at a more than two-decade high in an effort to combat inflation in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. That decision helped steady consumer prices, but it also meant huge spikes in mortgage rates — boosting monthly payments on new home loans by sometimes thousands of dollars and squeezing many would-be homebuyers out of the market.

Currently, the average rate for a typical 30-year fixed mortgage sits at about 6.2%, according to the latest data from Freddie Mac. That’s more than double the near record-low 2.8% rate three years ago.

Homebuyers shouldn’t expect mortgage rates to fall back to those bargain levels any time soon. But relief could still be on the way as the Fed is expected to continue lowering borrowing costs in the months and years ahead.

“Toward the end of the year, I think you’re going to see mortgages drop,” said Brett Nicoletti, branch manager with Guild Mortgage in Los Gatos.

When will mortgage rates go down?

They actually already have been.

Rates have dropped more than a percentage point since cresting above 7% this spring, falling fastest over the past month and a half. That’s largely because lenders had anticipated the Fed’s move and adjusted their rates accordingly.

However, the Fed signaled Wednesday it plans to cut rates twice more before the end of the year. By then, Wei said he expects mortgage rates to tick down to around 6%.

Looking further out, Fed officials have said they will likely continue slashing rates into at least 2026. “I think the long-term (mortgage) rate will be somewhere around 5%,” Wei said.

What does the rate cut mean for home prices?

Probably not a whole lot.

But Wei said that when those taking a wait-and-see approach to purchasing a home realize a large rate drop likely isn’t on the horizon, they may decide now is as good a time as any to buy.

“They may actually start thinking more seriously about buying because they didn’t see a significant drop in rates,” he said.

That could put some upward pressure on home prices. But given the market is entering the traditionally slow fall and winter seasons, prices may still fall on a monthly basis. However, Wei noted some parts of the Bay Area, especially wealthier cities where buyers can afford to put up more for a down payment, may see prices climb.

In August, the median price of a single-family home in the Bay Area dipped to $1.24 million. It was a 4.6% drop from July and a 1.6% decline year over year.

In 2025 and beyond, falling mortgage rates could convince would-be sellers who’ve been reluctant to give up the home loans they locked in when rates were lower to finally list their properties. That could help shake loose more inventory in the Bay Area’s tight housing market. But Wei said rising demand as more people can afford to finance a home is expected to push up prices around 4% to 5% a year, in line with historical trends.