The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will begin this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway when the green flag drops on the Quaker State 400. It’s a return trip to the track in 2024, and back in February, it was Daniel Suarez emerging victorious in a thrilling three-wide photo finish.
With Atlanta resembling a miniature Daytona or Talladega with pack racing ever since its repave in 2022, it’s much harder to predict who might be a factor. That said, here are three to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — for the playoff opener.
Favorite: Kyle Busch (+1000, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)
He’s not in the playoffs, but Busch might be the most dangerous driver this weekend. He’s riding back-to-back runner-up results the past two weeks and ran third in the spring at Atlanta as part of that wild finish. With the narrative now being all about whether or not he’ll win a race in 2024, Busch could silence the noise in resounding fashion by spoiling the playoff party.
The oddsmakers seem to have caught onto Busch’s momentum as well, ranking him with the second-best odds at +1000 behind only Ryan Blaney. Given that he has nothing to lose, though, one can expect him to do whatever it takes to reach Victory Lane. If you’re going with a top dog, this is the weekend to ride with “Rowdy.”
Contender: William Byron (+1100)
It’s been a theme for the past few years that Byron and his No. 24 team will start hot, go through a bit of a lull over the summer and then wake up again in the playoffs. And, who won the second Atlanta race in 2023? That would be Byron, who also won on a superspeedway this year in the Daytona 500. Results on these types of tracks are not always very predictive of future ones, but it just seems like the type of race where Willy B will be near the front.
Byron’s +1100 odds are tied for the third-highest in the field with teammate Kyle Larson. It’s understandable to look for better value throughout the field, but he may be your best bet among the contenders aside from Busch.
Dark horse: Todd Gilliland (+3000)
It’s easy to forget that Gilliland had arguably the dominant car at Atlanta in the spring, leading a race-high 58 laps before a late accident dropped him to a 26th-place finish. Front Row Motorsports has been lightning fast on the superspeedways this year between Gilliland and teammate Michael McDowell, and neither of them are in the playoffs, meaning they’ll be going for it all on Sunday.
With McDowell’s +2800 odds slightly better than Gilliland’s at +3000, that makes the third-generation driver a more appealing bargain out of the two teammates. It would be quite the story for the playoffs to open up with not only a winner from outside the title-contending field, but a driver earning his first Cup Series win altogether, and it just might happen.
Avoid: Denny Hamlin (+1200)
Hamlin seems to get penciled in near the top of the odds sheet every week aside from road courses, and it’s usually justifiable. However, despite his past reputation as a strong superspeedway driver, he’s had far less success on these types of tracks with the Next Gen car. This season in particular, he hasn’t finished better than 19th in four superspeedway races, and in five career races on the repaved Atlanta, he’s only recorded one top-10.
Sure, it’s worth pointing out again that many of these finishes are due to bad luck given the high frequency of accidents in superspeedway racing. However, Hamlin hasn’t had dominant speed on the new Atlanta surface either, with only 32 combined laps led in those five prior starts. His +1200 odds just don’t seem worth it.