U.S. 2024 online holiday sales to reach record $240.8 billion: Adobe

Adobe has released its annual online shopping forecast for the 2024 holiday season, projecting a record-breaking $240.8 billion in U.S. e-commerce sales from November 1 through December 31.

According to Adobe Analytics, this represents an 8.4% year-over-year growth compared to the $221.8 billion spent in 2023. 

Notably, mobile shopping is expected to drive much of the growth, contributing $128.1 billion to the overall holiday spend, up 12.8% year-over-year, with mobile accounting for 53.2% of total online sales, surpassing desktop shopping. 

Cyber Week, the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, is projected to account for $40.6 billion in sales, a 7% year-over-year increase and 16.9% of the entire holiday season’s sales. 

Cyber Monday remains the biggest online shopping day, with Adobe forecasting $13.2 billion in sales, up 6.1% from last year. Black Friday is expected to generate $10.8 billion, up 9.9% year-over-year, while Thanksgiving Day will bring in $6.1 billion, up 8.7% year-over-year. Adobe reports that 71% of consumers plan to shop online during Black Friday, and 70% will be actively seeking deals during Cyber Week.

Retailers are expected to offer discounts of up to 30% across various categories to compete for consumer dollars. Apparel is expected to experience a 23% discount. 

“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. 

“These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for U.S. retailers.”

Social media influencers are expected to play a significant role in driving sales this holiday season. Adobe projects that affiliate and partner channels, including influencers, will see 7% to 10% growth, outpacing traditional social media channels. 

Likewise, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are forecast to generate $18.5 billion in online spending, with mobile accounting for the majority of these transactions.