ULA needs to launch second Vulcan rocket

The Vulcan booster for the Cert-2 mission is seen during transport to Cape Canaveral, Florida.

United Launch Alliance

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Overview: Vulcan takes Centaur stage

It’s easy to lose the forest for the trees when reporting on the day-to-day of the space industry. I often find myself needing to step back and walk through why an event or announcement matters, because often what a space company or agency thinks has obvious importance doesn’t immediately resonate with CNBC’s audience.

A great example of that from this week is United Launch Alliance’s Cert-2 mission. 

If you’re in the weeds of the space world, hearing CEO Tory Bruno announce that ULA is going to bite the bullet and fly Cert-2 without a customer payload is a wild declaration. After all, aren’t rockets expensive? Don’t rockets often wait months or even years for spacecraft to be ready to launch? Why send a $100 million empty Vulcan into orbit with nobody paying for it, especially if ULA’s sold more than 70 launches to customers?

The simple answer is that Cert-2 does have a customer: The Pentagon. But let’s unpack that.

National security missions are the most lucrative launch contracts, to the tune of billions of dollars a year in rocket orders. Some of them are low-cost, experimental missions, but the majority are expensive, top secret satellites the Pentagon isn’t willing to let just anyone fly. Enter the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. 

ULA and SpaceX are both already in the NSSL program, but any time they bring a new rocket to market, Space Force requires that specific rocket complete launches successfully before certifying it to fly a NSSL mission. Hence the name of Vulcan’s second mission, Cert-2. The rocket launched for the first time in January, which was the first launch toward certification.

“What Space Force is looking to see with Cert-2 is another successful flight just like Cert-1,” Bruno said during a press conference Wednesday.

After Cert-2, ULA will send the Space Force “gigabytes of data for all of the instrumentation on every part of the rocket,” Bruno said, and, assuming they “find no surprises,” Vulcan will be clear to start launching NSSL missions.

ULA was planning to fly Sierra Space’s inaugural cargo Dream Chaser spaceplane on Cert-2, but Bruno said the latter company’s CEO Tom Vice “felt that he was putting a little too much schedule risk against my needs.” Dream Chaser is stepping aside, to be replaced by an “inert payload,” also known as a “mass simulator” (think big block of concrete and metal), so that Cert-2 can launch by September.

Why the rush? 

Well, the Pentagon’s already bought a whole bunch of Vulcan launches and expects two of those missions – USSF-106 and USSF-87 – to fly before the end of the year. Already, Air Force top brass Frank Calvelli put pressure on Bruno and ULA in a letter sent last month to the rocket company’s joint owners, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, outlining concern “due to Vulcan delays.” The Air Force also imposed a financial penalty on ULA, of an undisclosed amount, due to Vulcan’s delays.

One question mark that had been hanging over the next three Vulcan missions is at least largely settled: Blue Origin’s ability to deliver BE-4 engines for the rockets. The company delivered to ULA the six engines needed for its three launches, and Bruno noted he has “a great deal more confidence” in that relationship. A year ago that wasn’t the case, Bruno said, noting his company had “a big concern” about securing the engines ULA needed. That was back when Blue Origin had a BE-4 engine explode during acceptance testing — an engine that was intended for the Cert-2 launch.

Timely deliveries of the BE-4 engines becomes even more important next year, as Bruno expects ULA to make 20 launches in 2025, half of those on its Atlas V rockets and half with Vulcan. The company overall has 16 Atlas V rockets remaining to launch, before it’s all-in on Vulcan.

The Pentagon is ULA’s most important customer. So, while the military may not be paying for Cert-2 directly, the backlog of NSSL orders is why ULA is willing to pay out of pocket to launch the mission.

Oh, and there’s the other open question about the long-rumored ULA sale process. I thought, as did others, that Vulcan’s successful debut earlier this year would close a deal. Additionally Jeff Bezos’ raft of stock sales earlier this year made Blue Origin look like the likely winner. I’m speculating, but whoever wants to buy ULA may be waiting until after Cert-2 – or for perhaps a more friendly FTC if there’s a change in the White House this November.

What’s up

  • Russian non-operational satellite breaks apart in orbit, with ‘over 100 pieces of trackable debris’ as a result according to U.S. Space Command. NASA gave a shelter-in-spacecraft order to astronauts on the International Space Station as a precautionary measure. The debris cloud was monitored for an hour before the station was cleared to resume normal activities. Space Command and LeoLabs identified the satellites as the decommissioned RESURS-P1. – Space Command / NASA / LeoLabs
  • China returns moon samples: The Chang’e 6 capsule touched down carrying 2 kilograms of lunar material, the first brought back from the moon’s far side. – SpaceNews
  • NASA and Boeing delay Starliner crew return indefinitely as the agency and company look to analyze and review more data about the spacecraft’s performance, particularly its thruster and helium issues. NASA emphasized that Starliner is clear to return at any point in case of an emergency on the ISS. – NASA
  • SpaceX unveils backpack-sized Starlink Mini antenna, offering a limited initial release to U.S. customers for the compact, mobile option of the company’s satellite intern terminals. – CNBC
  • RTX subsidiary Collins Aerospace is backing out of ISS spacesuit contract: The company, awarded $97 million so far for development of new spacewalking suits, is ending its role in the program. – Reuters
  • ESA official doesn’t think ‘Starship will be a game-changer or a real competitor:’ European Space Agency director of space transportation Toni Tolker-Nielsen contended that Arianespace’s long-delayed Ariane 6 rocket is “perfect for the job” of launching satellites, unlike Starship which “is designed to fly people to the moon and Mars.” Additionally, Tolker-Nielsen said ESA chose not to make Ariane 6 a reusable rocket because “our launch needs are so low that it wouldn’t make sense economically.” – SpaceNews
  • Firefly adds Virginia and Sweden as Alpha launch locations: The rocket may launch from NASA’s Wallops launch site as soon as next year, and from the Esrange Space Center as soon as 2026. – Firefly / Firefly
  • Rocket Lab launches 50th Electron mission, reaching the milestone “faster than any commercially developed rocket in history.” The company’s first Electron launched in May 2017. – Rocket Lab
  • SpaceX launches 10th Falcon Heavy rocket, carrying NOAA’s GOES-U satellite bound for geostationary orbit. The satellite is the fourth in a series of weather monitoring satellites built by Lockheed Martin for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. – SpaceNews
  • Astra shareholders sue over founders’ take private move, alleging that the deal shortchanges public investors by undervaluing the company. – Bloomberg
  • NASA conducts planetary defense exercise alongside other federal organizations, working through a hypothetical scenario in which an asteroid had a high chance of hitting Earth and how the U.S. would respond. – NASA
  • Astrobotic built a ‘terrestrial moonscape’ for testing landers and rovers at its facility in Mojave, California, which it called the “Lunar Surface Proving Ground.” – Astrobotic
  • NASA is studying how to build habitats from fungi in a concept award through Ames in California to look at new multi-use materials for building structures on other planetary bodies. – NASA

Industry maneuvers

  • SpaceX valuation reportedly hits $210 billion as the company prepares to make a secondary sale offer via insiders at a price of $112 a share. – Bloomberg
  • SpaceX wins $843 million contract to build NASA spacecraft for reentering the ISS after it retires in 2030: The company will build the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle that will guide the International Space Station back into the Earth’s atmosphere. – CNBC
  • MDA awarded $730 million ($1 billion CAD) Canadarm3 contract from the Canadian Space Agency, to be used on the lunar Gateway space station. – MDA / CSA
  • Spanish rocket company PLD investing $10.7 million (€10 million) at Guiana Space Center in Kourou for MIURA 5 launches. – PLD Space
  • Comcast signs business enterprise connectivity deal with Starlink, which the U.S. telecom giant notes marks “the first major network provider” to work with SpaceX’s satellite internet service. Financial terms and service timing were not disclosed. – Comcast
  • Intelsat signs for Starfish Space satellite servicing mission beginning in 2026, that will see the startup company’s Otter spacecraft dock with and maneuver a retired Intelsat satellite in geostationary graveyard orbit. – Intelsat
  • Maritime connectivity provider KVH signs bulk deal with Starlink, prepaying for data in an expansion of a previous agreement. KVH also has a deal for Eutelsat Oneweb capacity. – KVH
  • German startup LiveEO raises $27 million (€25 million) in a round led by NordicNinja and DeepTech & Climate Fonds (DTCF), with the company aiming to expand its satellite imagery analysis platform. – Via Satellite

Market movers

Boldly going

On the horizon

  • June 28: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches the NROL-186 mission from California.
  • July 1: Firefly Alpha launches NASA VCLS demo mission from California.
  • July 2: NASA astronauts spacewalk at the ISS.
  • July 2: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.

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