An inaugural Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey conducted by Studyportals in partnership with NAFSA and Oxford Test of English has revealed a global drop in international enrolments this year, with 41% of institutions across 66 countries reporting decline in postgraduate enrolments compared to last year’s intake.
“Normally when we see enrolments in one destination decline, we see an uptick in another destination. There’s normally a case of shifting market share between destinations, but this intake is different,” Cara Skikne, Studyportals head of communications, told webinar attendees on December 2.
Analysing the results of the enrolment survey published in November 2024, webinar speakers agreed that the “perfect storm” of restrictive government policies, affordability and the enrolment cliff seen in some destinations are creating a uniquely challenging environment setting this year apart from previous years.
“This is just chapter one of the perfect storm that we’re beginning to talk about. I would venture to say that there will be a chapter two and a chapter three that will be coming up” said NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw.
“I think it’s very special and uncommon that three out of four – or some say three and a half out of four – of the main destinations were heavily restricted at the same time,” said Studyportals CEO Edwin van Rest.
“Certain student segments were most hit. For instance, students from India that are looking for more affordable education options historically have always found alternatives, but the alternative destinations have seen higher visa barriers and higher financial barriers.
“We think a couple hundred thousand students that would have otherwise gone and enrolled somewhere else didn’t make it in 2024, so that’s what makes the current landscape quite different than in other years,” said van Rest.
Surveying 365 global institutions, the average change in postgraduate international enrolments ranged from –27% in Canada to +2% in European countries.
International undergraduate enrolments showed more mixed trends, ranging from –30% in Canada to +12% in some Asian countries.
Restrictive government policies and issues obtaining a visa were identified as significant by more than half of respondents, with 93% of institutions in Canada, 58% in the US and 61% in the UK finding them problematic.
We think a couple hundred thousand students that would have otherwise gone and enrolled somewhere else didn’t make it in 2024
Edwin van Rest, Studyportals
This year has seen unprecedented changes across the four major study destinations, with international student caps implemented in Canada, the review of the Graduate Route in the UK and the tabling of controversial caps in Australia – which have not yet been passed –but continue to cause market volatility.
Amid the upheaval in the major markets, stakeholders must widen the conversation to include the top twenty destinations to replace the “outdated” concentration on the ‘Big Four’ markets, said Aw.
“The centre of gravity is shifting rapidly, and we do need to pay attention to it.”
“We have a lot of data that shows how government policies really do matter. We cannot be complacent because we’re seeing that impact across the sector in lots of different ways,” said Aw.
Van Rest highlighted the fact that Canada’s study permit caps implemented in January 2024 did not initially include postgraduate students, yet the reputational damage was enough to cause a 27% drop in postgraduate enrolments this year.
“It’s not only the mechanics of a policy but it’s the reputational damage,” explained van Rest, reminding webinar attendees of the importance of messaging and how it affects students.
Alongside restrictive government policies, heightened cost sensitivity is another factor setting the current climate apart from previous years, said panellists.
“More and more students and their families are very cost sensitive, so as we think about the students of today and the students of tomorrow, we have to start thinking much more about the affordability issue,” said Aw.
One growing phenomenon that will generate more “push and pull” in the sector and force stakeholders to reckon with the cost implications of education is the rising provision of English-taught programs in non-traditional destinations, said Aw.
Despite the dominance of the ‘Big Four’ offering 92% of online English-taught programs from 2019-2024, a recent survey showed that non-traditional destinations doubled their online ETP provision during the same period, with certain European countries becoming particularly competitive.
This is just chapter one of the perfect storm… there will be a chapter two and chapter three coming up
Fanta Aw, NAFSA
Leaning into these destinations and diversifying student recruitment will be the key to surviving the current landscape, webinar attendees heard, with Studyportals’ recent survey showing that diversification into new markets was already a high priority across all regions.
However, the survey also highlighted negative consequences to come, with 22% of global institutions expecting budget cuts over the next 12 months, with rates particularly high in Canada with cuts forecasted for 60% of universities.
Though it can be even harder for institutions to diversify with limited resources, Aw highlighted the need for long-term strategic planning based on real-time data and expectation management.
“You have to start investing now to see the yield two or three years down the road,” said Aw, highlighting that recruitment strategies also needed diversifying to make them more equitable.
“Whether you’re on the upper end or the lower end, it’s not the strongest or the fittest that survive, it’s those that are most adaptable to change.
“So, leveraging real-time data to see earlier than others where the obstacles and opportunities lie is where we’ll find opportunities for innovation,” added van Rest.