The BJP looks stronger than ever and nigh unstoppable heading into next year’s Lok Sabha Elections and Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks set for a third term.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a political juggernaut which has steam-rolled opponents for the past decade, however, despite the party’s grip over the country’s political atmosphere since Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrested power from the Congress-led UPA in 2014, it’s electoral dominance can largely be attributed to its iron grip over the hearts and minds of the Hindi-heartland even as gaining a foothold in the southern India remains elusive for the saffron party.
Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP ended the year on an emphatic note as it sweeped the Assembly polls in all three Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. However, the 2023 did not start well for the party as they were routed by the Congress in the Karnataka state Assembly polls, thus losing their only bastion in the south and solidifying the perception that the BJP is a “North-only” party which fails to do well down south despite all its efforts.
As the years winds down, we take a look at the BJP’s rout in the south to its conquest of the Hindi heartland to end 2023 on a high-note.
The Karnataka debacle
In May 2023, the Congress, riding off a popularity wave after the highly-successful (and fruitful) Bharat Jodo Yatra under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, handed the BJP its first major jolt ahead of next year’s General elections, uprooting the saffron brigade from its only bastion in the south and proving that the grand-old party could indeed defeat the BJP in a head-to-head poll battle.
Political pundits attributed the BJP’s rout in Karnataka to several factors, including but not limited to anti-incumbency and banking heavily on the personal appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the parties other “star” campaigns to get them through.
However, the lack of a strong local leadership and the perceived sidelining of party strongman and influential Lingayat leader BS Yeddyurappa would come back to haunt the BJP as they only managed to secure 65 seats in the 224-seat Karnataka Legislative Assembly, a stark contrast to the previous polls in 2018, where they won 104 seats to emerge as the single largest party in the state.
On the other hand, Congress, won a landslide victory, winning 135 seats, making it their biggest win by seats and vote share in Karnataka since the 1989 elections.
BJP lost the elections by a heavy margin despite PM Modi holding as many as 19 meetings and six roadshows while BJP President J P Nadda and other top guns including Home Minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath campaigning in the state to to shore up the party’s prospects in the May 10 Assembly polls
Former BJP Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai attributed in a straightforward answer attributed the Congress’ victory to their “much organised” election strategy as one of the major reasons.
Asked whether the Modi and Shah factor did not work in this election, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai said there are various factors for this outcome and one can speak about it after a thorough analysis.
Some BJP leaders believed that pre-poll ‘guarantees’ announced by the Congress promising free power, rice, and unemployment doles also tilted a significant section of the voters towards the Congress. Others blamed the party for giving tickets to 75 new faces to combat anti-incumbency but some of them were tainted and did not have a clean image.
The Saffron conquest of Hindi heartland
Despite starting the year with a major setback in the south, the BJP ended 2023 on a high-note as the saffron wave swept across Hindi heartland, registering a landslide victory in Madhya Pradesh, and securing a comfortable majority in both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and in the process ousting arch nemesis Congress from power in the last two states while handing them a crushing defeat in the first.
However, the BJP’s dream of gaining a foothold in the south remained unfulfilled as the Congress wrested power from the former chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) government in Telangana.
Despite majority exit-polls giving the edge to the Congress, the BJP ousted the rival party from power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and retained Madhya Pradesh despite heavy incumbency.
The results in Hindi heartland states came as a shocker to Congress and a morale-booster to BJP, however, Congress leaders expressed happiness over victory in Telangana and said the results in the three states were disappointing and the party will rebuild itself in these areas.
Hailing the party’s spectacular performance Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked the BJP scoring a hat-trick in next year’s Lok Sabha polls on the lines of hat-trick it scored in state polls.
Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge said that the party will overcome “temporary setbacks” and prepare fully for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections along with the INDIA parties.
The BJP juggernaut
The BJP completed a dominant conquest of the Hindi heartland– retaining power in Madhya Pradesh, and securing a comfortable majority in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
In Madhya Pradesh, the then incumbent Shivraj Chouhan-led dispensation won a whopping 163 seats against rival Congress’ 65, while in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, they wrested power from the grand-old party, winning 54 and 115 seats respectively.
Exit-polls had given an edge to the Congress in Chhattisgarh, however, the BJP proved poll-pundits wrong like it had prophesized on the eve of vote counting.
Rajasthan seems to have followed the over three-decade old trend of rotating governments and the Congress government led by Ashok Gehlot has been replaced with BJP dispensation.
BJP has set a record in Madhya Pradesh by retaining power again after having ruled the state for 18 of the past 20 years, while the Congress under former CM Kamal Nath– which was expected to give a tough contest to the ruling party– surrendered meekly.
Congress dethrones BRS in Telangana, crushes BJP’s south dream
The Congress convincingly won Telangana for the first time in a shock for the ruling BRS which was in power in India’s youngest state for the past 10 years. Thus, crushing the BJP long-unfulfilled dream of planting its feet in south India where it currently does not have power in any state.
Congress ended up with a clear majority, winning 64 seats, as it cashed-in on the anti-incumbency against factor against the ruling BRS who came in second-best with 39 seats.
Victory in Karnataka in assembly polls earlier this year enthused Congress workers in Telangana and the party ran a strong campaign bolstered by its leaders from different parts of the country.
BJP: All guns glazing for 2024 Lok Sabha Polls
Despite its disappointing and unsuccessful campaigns in the south, the BJP looks stronger than ever and nigh unstoppable heading into next year’s Lok Sabha Elections. Bolstered by the complete conquest of the Hindi heartland, the saffron juggernaut is more prepared than it was the last time to secure another massive victory in the General Elections.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is looking well set for an undeniable third-term despite opposition parties working to present a united front against him with the INDIA bloc alliance.